The Pattern
by James Dunnigan
January 10, 2010

The war against IEDs (Improvised Explosive Devices, mainly roadside bombs and mines) is playing out in Afghanistan as it did in Iraq. The Afghan terrorists have been using IEDs more, to less effect (against foreign troops), while killing more civilians. Three years ago, one foreign soldier was killed for every 29 IED used. This year, with eight times as many IEDs being used, it took 36 IEDs to kill one foreign soldier. In 2007, it took 55 roadside bombs to kill one American in Iraq. The trend in Iraq was similar to that is now unfolding in Afghanistan. The much higher civilian toll in Iraq turned the civilian population against the terrorists to the extent that overall attacks, and casualties, dropped 90 percent.

The Taliban have tried to avoid civilian casualties by using most of their roadside bombs in isolated areas. But these are more frequently detected and avoided or neutralized. The bombs in populated areas are more likely to work, to the detriment of nearby civilians. The Taliban do not really care that much about civilian casualties, as they believe anyone who does not agree with them, deserves to die, and isn't a real Moslem anyway. It was this attitude that made Islamic terrorists the most hated group in Iraq, even among the Sunni Arab population that provided most of their support and manpower.

The Pattern by James DunniganJanuary 10, 2010

The Pattern
by James Dunnigan
January 10, 2010