The Perfect Soldier: Special Operations, Commandos, and the Future of Us Warfare by James F. Dunnigan
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This Could Get Messy
by James Dunnigan
August 4, 2012
South Korea is pressuring the U.S. to drop range missile restrictions imposed on South Korea decades ago. If the United States does not agree, South Korea is apparently ready to just go ahead with building longer range missiles, to better deter China as well as North Korea. For the last 30 years the United States has been discouraging South Korea from developing long-range ballistic and cruise missiles. This was done to try and halt an arms race with North Korea but the north never took the hint. Meanwhile, the U.S. assured the south that America would show up for the fight if the north attacked. Despite American opposition, South Korea began developing, but not mass-producing, ballistic missiles in the 1970s. South Korea certainly has the technical expertise and manufacturing capability to produce a more modern ballistic missile with a range of 300 kilometers. South Korea has signed an international treaty agreeing to not build ballistic missiles with a range greater than 300 kilometers, but public opinion in the south is calling for that limit to be broken, in order to make all of North Korea vulnerable to ballistic missile attack from the south. This also sends a message to China that South Korea is not to be messed with.
Another major change being pushed in the south is a closer military and intelligence alliance with Japan. This has proved difficult because of continued anti-Japanese feelings (for the harsh treatment Koreans received when Japan ruled Korea as a colony from 1910 to 1945) felt by most Koreans. Despite that, senior South Korea military officials believe such cooperation is essential.
China remains the foreign power with the most influence over North Korea but that isn't saying much. When given unwelcome advice from China, which represents nearly 80 percent of foreign trade and the only source of free food and fuel aid, North Korea still tends to adopt a suicidal attitude. For the northern leadership it's "death before dishonor" and that means Chinese demands, even backed by threats of aid cuts, are ignored. For this reason China is believed to be involved in the current reorganization of the senior North Korean leadership. China has long developed friends and relationships among the North Korean elite. As corruption became more of a factor in the last decade, China knew how to cope. China is awash in corruption and Chinese leaders have learned how to use it (even as they struggle to lose it). In effect, China's decade-long effort to overwhelm the "old school" faction in North Korea appears to have succeeded. But the "old school" crowd are still numerous, scared, and armed. This could get messy. This does not bother China, which has plenty of experience with messy.
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