The Perfect Soldier: Special Operations, Commandos, and the Future of Us Warfare by James F. Dunnigan
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Dirty Little Secrets
Iraq Predictions
by James Dunnigan
January 4, 2005
Discussion Board on this DLS topic
A new year brings forth predictions. So here are ours for Iraq, and
why.
Election security, will Iraqis refuse to come out and vote
because they are scared?
No. The 80 percent of the population that is
Kurdish and Shia Arab are eager, willing and able to vote. Some of the Sunni
Arabs may be able to vote as well, in areas where the terrorists are not strong
enough to scare people away from the polling places.
Election
legitimacy, will the rest of the world believe that the elections are
real?
Yes. With 80 percent of the population voting, and the 20
percent not voting prevented from doing so by terrorists within their community,
it will be a legitimate vote. One group calling for a boycott does not
invalidate a vote. This is not a new problem, terrorists often threaten
democracy by trying to prevent people from voting.
Osama bin Laden
called for Iraqis to not vote. Will he be obeyed and is he still a strong figure
in Arab world?
No. Because of all the Iraqis killed by al Qaeda
terror attacks in Iraq, bin Laden and al Qaeda are widely despised and hated.
Moreover, bin Laden and his Taliban buddies openly tortured and killed Shias in
Afghanistan, thus the 60 percent of Iraqis who are Shia see bin Laden as an
enemy.
Is Abu Musab al Zarqawi now stronger and a bigger public figure
than Osama bin Laden?
No. Zarqawi is "stronger" than bin Laden right
now because he is bankrolled and protected by the Baath Party in Iraq (and the
Baath Party in Syria as well, and possibly Shia Islamic radicals in Iran as
well.) Zarqawi was a lower level al Qaeda leader in early 2003, living in
Baghdad as a guest of Saddam. He's not a very bright guy, more mouth than
anything else. Right now Baath is using him as a front man to attract suicidal
volunteers, and to mask the Baath Party's sordid record of atrocities in Iraq.
Bin Laden is trying to get other al Qaeda commanders into Iraq, but that is
proving difficult, as these guys tend to get killed quickly. Some suspect Baath
assassins are more responsible than US troops.
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