The Perfect Soldier: Special Operations, Commandos, and the Future of Us Warfare by James F. Dunnigan
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Dirty Little Secrets
China Plans Surprise Attack on Taiwan
by James Dunnigan
April 4, 2005
Discussion Board on this DLS topic
China is apparently planning an “out-of-the-blue” (OOTB) attack on Taiwan, that
will initially consist mainly of missiles, warplanes, paratroopers and troops
out on "training exercises". What this means is that, during what appears to be
peacetime maneuvers, the troops involved will suddenly move against a nearby
nation and invade. This tactic was developed by Russia during the Cold War, but
never used. They prepared for it by holding large scale training exercises twice
a year, near the border with West Germany. The Russian troops were all ready to
practice, or go to war. An OOTB attack could be ordered by having the troops to
cross the border and attack NATO forces, who would have insufficient warning to
deal with the sudden offensive. NATO finally caught on to this plan, and put the
troops on alert during the Russian field exercises. The OOTB was most noticeably
used, and successfully at that, when the Russian trained Egyptian army surprised
the Israelis and recaptured the Suez canal in 1973.
If everyone is on to
OOTB attacks, how does China expect to get away with it? Especially when it
would involve an amphibious operation involving at least ten hours time at sea
for the ships of the amphibious force. The exact details are kept secret, but
the plan involves using over 600 ballistic missiles, and several hundred
warplanes, which China has stationed within range of Taiwan. Within an hour, the
missiles could hit Taiwanese anti-aircraft missile launchers, radars, airbases,
ships in harbor and army barracks and combat vehicles. Launch the attack in the
pre-dawn hours, and you catch most of the troops in their barracks, and the
ships, warplanes and tanks lined up and vulnerable. Amphibious troops would
already be on their ships, for an amphibious exercises, escorted by numerous
warships. As the amphibious fleet headed for Taiwan, hundreds of Chinese
warplanes would return to hit whatever targets had been
missed.
Taiwanese commanders have responded with plans to keep warships
at sea and some aircraft in the air at all times during Chinese exercises. Even
900 ballistic missiles, which the Chinese will have in place during the next few
years, would not be sufficient to shut down the Taiwanese armed forces. But if
the missiles, and air strikes soon thereafter, could do enough damage to prevent
the first wave of amphibious ships from getting hit bad, Taiwan would be in big
trouble. In fact, if the Chinese could get control of the air over Taiwan for a
day or so, three Chinese airborne divisions could be dropped on Taiwan as
well.
Taiwan has always expected assistance from the U.S. Navy and Air
Force. But without advance warning to get a carrier or two into the area, and a
few hundred U.S. Air Force planes alerted for movement to Taiwan, Japan and
Guam, the American assistance would be too late. Thus, for Taiwan, an OOTB
attack, which the Chinese appear to be preparing to carry out, is something to
worry about.
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