The Perfect Soldier: Special Operations, Commandos, and the Future of Us Warfare by James F. Dunnigan
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Dirty Little Secrets
Why Iraq Is Surrounded by Enemies
by James Dunnigan
August 25, 2005
Discussion Board on this DLS topic
Who’s winning in Iraq? The government is getting stronger. Each month, more
areas of the country become “safe.” But “safe” is a relative term in Iraq. The
northern Kurdish areas, and most of the Shia Arab south have been free of
constant violence for over a year. The areas being made “safe” now are towns
and neighborhoods in central and western Iraq. Iraq’s neighbors, who are all
hostile for different reasons, have come to accept the prospect of an Iraqi
democracy controlled by the Shia Arab majority.
Each of the neighbors is hostile for a different
reason. The Turks are afraid that the Iraq government will give the Iraqi Kurds
too much autonomy, and tolerate Iraqi Kurds supporting Kurdish separatism in
Turkey. As far as the Turks are concerned, this is already happening. While
most Iranians want the Iraqi democracy to succeed, the Islamic conservatives
who run Iran do not. The Iranian hard liners are encouraging and supporting the
Iraqi Arab Shia radicals to try and take control of the government. This is a
long shot, and troublesome even as it fails.
To the south, Kuwait wants Iraq to settle down, but cannot forget that even a
democratic Iraq will probably still believe Kuwait should be part of Iraq. Some
Kuwaitis believe that Iraq should be kept weak, lest there be another invasion
of Kuwait. Saudi Arabia would rather have the Iraqi Sunni Arabs running Iraq, preferably
as a dictatorship. The Saudis will always want that, but in the meantime, they
have to work with the current Iraqi government because Islamic radicals are
fighting democrats in Iraq as well as royalists in Saudi Arabia. Jordan is in a
situation similar to Saudi Arabia, made worse by the fact that Jordan was
always, for economic reasons, been an ally of Saddam Hussein. Syria is another
dictatorship that does not feel comfortable with a democracy next door. Syria’s
situation is further complicated by the fact that Syria is run by non-Sunni
Arabs, who belong to the Alawite sect. Moreover, the Syrian leadership share a
common political philosophy with the deposed Saddam Hussein government. There
have long been feuding Iraqi and Syrian factions of the Baath party. While
Syria was a long time foe of Saddam because of this, they would prefer to have
an Arab dictator (preferably Shia) running Iraq. But for the moment, Syria will
be nice to whatever government runs Iraq.
Most of Iraq’s neighbors would like coalition forces out of Iraq, now, so that
they can interfere on the side of their favorite faction, in an Iraqi civil
war. That could get very ugly, but one thing most of Iraq’s neighbors agree on,
anything is preferable to an Iraqi democracy.
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