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China Versus India

September 29, 2009: The commander of the Indian Air Force is openly complaining that China has three times as many warplanes as India (which has 1,700, have of them combat, the rest support). The head of the Indian Navy has been complaining about Chinese warships being more numerous, and more frequently  showing up in the Indian Ocean.

The Indian Army is less concerned. Three years ago, India adopted the Russian T-90 as its new main battle tank. There is now local production of about a thousand T-90s over the next decade. India already has imported 310 T-90s. Under this plan, by 2020, India will have 2,000 upgraded T-72s, over 1,500 T90s, and few hundred other tanks. This will be the most powerful armored force in Eurasia, unless China moves ahead with upgrades to its tank force. The border between China and India is high in the Himalayan mountains, which is not good tank country. India's tank force is mainly for use against Pakistan. But if the Chinese should ever cross the border, they had best be prepared to deal with lots of modern tanks.

China says it is not concerned with India's moving two more infantry divisions into northeast India, where the Himalayan mountains form a thousand kilometer long, unfenced border with China. There are boundary disputes between India and China along the Himalayas, but these are now being negotiated (although not settled yet). India is putting those two divisions into Arunachal Pradesh to deal with long term ethnic unrest. India also recently upgraded a primitive airfield (used mainly for helicopters), 25 kilometers from the Chinese border, to one that can handle larger transports. Again, while some Indian politicians proclaim that this is all about defending India from the Chinese menace, it's actually more about local tribal separatists.

Although India lost several border skirmishes to Chinese troops along that border in the 1960s, China was never considered a real threat. That's because there were no Chinese railroads leading to their side of the Himalayan frontier. With only a few roads leading into Tibet, from China proper, the Chinese could never launch a major offensive across the Himalayan border. That changed three years ago when China completed a railroad into Tibet.

So China is now a threat from all sides. India is particularly annoyed at China intruding into the waters surrounding India. It's not called the Indian Ocean for nothing, and the Indians consider these waters sacrosanct. Chinese naval power is not welcome. India has long blamed its defeat in the 1962 war with China over a lack of sufficient air power. This is still the case. Indian air force generals are using that memory, and the continued imbalance between the Indian and Chinese air forces, to make a case for buying lots more modern aircraft.

 

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Hari Sud       9/29/2009 9:51:49 AM
 
Indian Air Force marshals and Navy admirals do not have to wait too long. A lot is on order and to be delivered. What they are doing is politics in real sense. They want larger share of $30 billion now and rising at the rate of 12-14% every year defence expenditure allocated to them. At the moment army takes the bulk.
 
In five year: new aircarft carrier, nuclear subs, conventional subs, additional destroyers, naval patrol planes new sea bases in the Indian Ocean will become operational. India has nothing to fear from the Chinese. The latter has to cross the narrow Straits of Malacca to confront India. This may be their Waterloo.
 
Indian airforce has nothing to fear. It has the most modern SU-30MKI in large numbers (Chinese have a similar but less capable fighter). India will soon import a Medium Combat Fighter from Europe or USA in large numbers. Its own Light Combat Fighter with mostly with western avionics and armaments will join in large numbers. All the Indian Air Marshal's have to do is to wait five years.
 
Chinese 1700 fighters cannot be deployed in large numbers in Tibet leaving their flanks open. Also these fighters require a much longer real estate on ground and a smaller payload they carry to take off from mountain bases in Tibet which is mostly at 7,000 feet above sea level. They have one advantage that lost aircrafts can be replaced quickly from the inventory.
 
Their rail link is sitting on permafrost as it paases over much of Tibet. It appears to be feet in engineering, but not so in fulfilling strategic needs of war. A determined Indian effort can melt the permafrost at key points and render the rail line totally ineffective for months.
 
An uprising in Tibet can completely undermine their war effort from Tibet. It is possible. Dalai Lama is a pacifist but also wishes Chinese gone from Tibet. His one word and the populace will be up in arms, hence all Chinese war effort is undermined.
 
Hence the keep the above in mind before you conclude anything in Chinese favor.
 
Cheers
 
 
HS
 
 
 
Quote    Reply

PSW       9/29/2009 10:09:57 AM
This seems to be India's great game plan. They are creating rhetoric to support huge arms purchases. By 2015 they will be purchasing many advanced weapon systems. I think this time India will be an aggressor. They are purchasing too much. Either they will engage Pakistan or China.
 
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Hari Sud       9/29/2009 11:09:25 AM
 
Now you understand why Chinese have upped the ante now than five years from now.
 
Chinese wish, as per their unofficial media & blogs, that action against India be undertaken before 2012. Later on it is too late for them.
 
What caught India's eye was that a few months back their official mouthpiece Global Times, a subsidiary of People's Daily wished India to be broken up into 20-25 smaller states, so that it is never a problem for the Chinese for the next five hundred years.
 
Anybody will be concerned about these statements in a tightly controlled country or media.
 
India has to watch out for these views. Outwardly they shake hands with you.
 
Cheers
 
 
HS
 
Quote    Reply

PSW       9/29/2009 12:23:46 PM
What we percieve from outside is that the indians are purchasing too much and all this rhetoric is created by them to justify the purchases.
 
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Photon       9/29/2009 3:17:22 PM
The US should encourage India to 'respond' to Chinese ambition through Sino-Indian arms race.  Furthermore, offer as much assistance to India, to the extent of pissing off China as much as possible.  The eventual objective is to goad these two giants to smash each other.  The US, Europe, as well as smaller littoral Asian states will sleep much more comfortably, if these two can be kept weak.
 
Quote    Reply

Hari Sud       9/29/2009 5:50:25 PM
 
Photon
 
Not a smart thought but practical.
 
India is building a deterence so that no fight takes place.
 
HS
 
Quote    Reply

Viper_1986       9/29/2009 6:39:48 PM

So Hari you think China wont be upgrading at all within the next couple of years? China spends 3 more times then India and not only that they are all the time modernising there military at a very fast pace and in a war MOST people would bet the Chinese would win. Your an Indian so you would defend India but China isnt the enemy. China mainly spends it on training and equipment improvement while you see Indian army still carrying WW2 rifles.
  Anyways I just dont understand! Why Indians alsways want to compare themselves to the Chinese.
The  Indians are what the French were for hunderds of years, always in second place compare to the Brits. Look and solve your problems INSIDE before you jump and try to be a super force for no reason You got NUCS thats enough. Both countries are thousands of years old and never have been sworn enemys. This is something the US and the EU want to cause so that they will stay as global powers untill you stop tripping over these tricks India. Photon Is a good example US and the EU would be laughing there heads of if these two PEACEFULL countries historically became enemys. For F sake France and Germany make it up after almost 70 million! lives all over Europe why cant them two.
Look China isnt interested in India, its just India always wanting to be above China.

 
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Photon       9/29/2009 6:49:49 PM
Another good ploy is to have maritime powers like the US, India and Australia to have a prearranged common diplomatic offensive .... the recognition of Taiwan.  (Meanwhile, what Taiwan should do is to throw away the 'Republic of China' and just go by the popular name 'Taiwan' or 'Republic of Taiwan'.)  Piss off Beijing without having to park a fleet of aircraft carriers right in front of Shanghai or Hainan.
 
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cwDeici       9/29/2009 10:31:12 PM
India lost its war with China in 1962 because it was wholly unprepared in the mountains (lacking heavy machine guns and mortars), despite its 'creeping advance' policy.
 
Quote    Reply

cwDeici       9/29/2009 10:33:15 PM
It was also unprepared on the strategic, political and tactical level.
 
As for this navy business, I find it a bit arrogant to claim an entire ocean, but then again my mother's country like to claim islands from others. Regardless of such, India should ramp up spending to stay ahead in the carrier business and properly develop its submarine force.
 
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cwDeici       9/29/2009 10:34:44 PM

Is the Indian submarine force superior to the Chinese? All I know is China has a decent sub force, but India actually has a naval carrier tradition, while China is still months away from it's first keel.

 
Quote    Reply

cwDeici       9/29/2009 10:54:53 PM

 
In five year: new aircarft carrier, nuclear subs, conventional subs, additional destroyers, naval patrol planes new sea bases in the Indian Ocean will become operational. India has nothing to fear from the Chinese. The latter has to cross the narrow Straits of Malacca to confront India. This may be their Waterloo.

You're probably right at this point in time, but out of the last decade this is the only year where India has matched China's increase in defense spending.
I think you're overestimating your ASW capabilities. With a base as close as Hainan Chinese subs can probably block shipping from their side as well, and would remain in a defensive stance rather than commit suicide... unless the navy is desperate for some reason.
Regardless, the sub force is a deterrant against anything larger than the strength level of roughly Taiwan, the Phillipines or Burma.
Economic relations are good, incentives for war are few. There are negotiations going on. China has a good record as regards India (unlike its other neighbors) as far as I know for the last hundred years or more. 1962 is one of the few incidences over the last 70 years where China was in the right.
 
 

 

Indian airforce has nothing to fear. It has the most modern SU-30MKI in large numbers (Chinese have a similar but less capable fighter). India will soon import a Medium Combat Fighter from Europe or USA in large numbers. Its own Light Combat Fighter with mostly with western avionics and armaments will join in large numbers. All the Indian Air Marshal's have to do is to wait five years.
 
- You're right, but you make it sound like the Chinese airforce is sitting still. Certainly the western parts and possibly planes will help keep you ahead, however all things being equal the gap will continue to close and eventually go into the negatives. However India will remain safe due to its geography.
Chinese 1700 fighters cannot be deployed in large numbers in Tibet leaving their flanks open. Also these fighters require a much longer real estate on ground and a smaller payload they carry to take off from mountain bases in Tibet which is mostly at 7,000 feet above sea level. They have one advantage that lost aircrafts can be replaced quickly from the inventory.
 
- This works both ways, but I see and acknowledge your point.
 

Their rail link is sitting on permafrost as it paases over much of Tibet. It appears to be feet in engineering, but not so in fulfilling strategic needs of war. A determined Indian effort can melt the permafrost at key points and render the rail line totally ineffective for months.

- True. China isn't planning to use it for war against India though. Our interests are more archipelagic (if that's even a word). 
 

An uprising in Tibet can completely undermine their war effort from Tibet. It is possible. Dalai Lama is a pacifist but also wishes Chinese gone from Tibet. His one word and the populace will be up in arms, hence all Chinese war effort is undermined.

 - This is where you're seeing a mirage. You underestimate the effectiveness of the police force and garrisons of the new dynasty and overestimate the Tibetans. Demographics have the local Han at a quarter of the population and rising.
 

 
Hence the keep the above in mind before you conclude anything in Chinese favor.

 Cheers
 
India certainly has some technological advantages, while it's behind in a few others, but the tide is turning for China more than it is for India. Also, India being peacefully Hindi (with the exception of its treatment of Christians) has a bad historical reputation for wars, history more often than not will run salient for its age. And China definitely has the bigger batallion. Given no barriers I would put my money on China.
India's greatest advantage is it's geography, a highly talented population second and general peacefulness third (though this is also its greatest weakness, having few outright allies).
 
Chinese thrift, ambition and bloodlust (though much less than the Islamic) will continue to balance out the British naval legacy and Indian talent - but in time I believe if India finds itself western allies, it will remain stronger. It has already gone some of the way.
 
If it does not it will eventually be surpassed in some of its leading fields, but India is doing well right now at staying ahead. And even if this happens, the Himalayans will keep her safe.
 
 
Not that there will be war... personally my dream is we team up and rehabilitate all the Muslims in Asia. 
 
Quote    Reply

cwDeici       9/29/2009 10:59:38 PM
Btw., if India really does get western planes it will be several decades before China can compete efficiently as it cannot obtain the same weapons without espionage.
 
Also, 'bloodlust' isn't really what I'm going for here... there's a better word... Pride? Jingoism? W/e
The Desire to be a Master State (exacting tribute as of old and only modestly to intermediately expansionistic)?
 
Quote    Reply

cwDeici       9/29/2009 11:01:25 PM

This seems to be India's great game plan. They are creating rhetoric to support huge arms purchases. By 2015 they will be purchasing many advanced weapon systems. I think this time India will be an aggressor. They are purchasing too much. Either they will engage Pakistan or China.


They're trying to stay on par with China while increasing its ability for when it is eventually forced to deal decisively with Pakistan. And in the back of their minds increased influence in Afghanistan, SouthEast Asia, Indonesia.
 
Quote    Reply

cwDeici       9/29/2009 11:17:22 PM

 

Now you understand why Chinese have upped the ante now than five years from now.

 

Chinese wish, as per their unofficial media & blogs, that action against India be undertaken before 2012. Later on it is too late for them.

 

What caught India's eye was that a few months back their official mouthpiece Global Times, a subsidiary of People's Daily wished India to be broken up into 20-25 smaller states, so that it is never a problem for the Chinese for the next five hundred years.

Anybody will be concerned about these statements in a tightly controlled country or media.

India has to watch out for these views. Outwardly they shake hands with you.

Cheers
HS

This is a bit insane. My mother's state (my motherland) spews out a metric ton of grabage propaganda every day.
We haven't been 'upping the ante' against India... this Prime of Ambition is more of a short to mid-term project of imposing our will on medium-sized nations to the southeast, dealing with India might be a perequisite in some scenarios, but would hardly be the goal. The long-term goal is to regain the position of Middle Kingdom by equaling and exceeding the US in first economic then military might and subsequently prestige.
History shows a powerful China was only intermediately expansionistic, and in military terms only mildly so as assimilation was a primary tool. I expect squabbles over islets in the future for resource rights (Spratly, Paracel, etc.), but the navy is mainly a tool for guaranteeing Chinese economic vitality... securing the influx of raw materials! (sort of like Japan, except China has a much more merchant-like mindset and will use money as its first resort (and as long as it is so the forces will be defensive)).
 
Personally I live in Hong Kong, so we're not censored here, but you do get this stream of nationalist propaganda from places inland. Some of the population is nationalist, but the majority and in particular the government, are not.
 
China is pragmatical, and will continue to be. From what I've studied India is seen as a competitor, not a target. Your true enemy is Pakistan, our deadbeat client. 
 
I am rather offended you would think China is two-faced with wanting peace with India. You're the ones moving troops up, and we don't mind.
Just because we're exceptionally well at trading and playing mindgames (at the same time) with Westerners doesn't mean we'd lie to a major next door neighbor about peace.
 
 
Sooo yeah... 2012 - Insane. You'll see, nothing will happen. Seem kinda paranoid really. All major states spew world domination BS (even America, with it's 'all battle space domination'), though China does so in a more sinister manner as it is a way to prop up support for the technocratic government (highly corrupt but also possibly the most competent in the world economically speaking).
 
It's hard to explain, you obviously think of China as a flat dictatorship. I've lived in western democracies and I know they can be complicated, but... in comparison things are surprisingly complex and simple at the same time over here.
 
What I do know for sure is that China will continue to behave in a predictable manner. The cornerstone of Chinese strategy is to maintain the status quo as long as it is strengthening its position and to expand cautiously (often too cautiously).
 
 
Most importantly of ALL - from what I've studied China has no interest at all in India, other than as a Friendly Neighbor.
 
 ... now zones of influence... that's a different matter...
 
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