Military History | How To Make War | Wars Around the World Rules of Use How to Behave on an Internet Forum
Marines Discussion Board
   Return to Topic Page
Subject: The Chinese Secret Weapon
SYSOP    12/18/2014 4:57:09 AM
 
Quote    Reply

Show Only Poster Name and Title     Newest to Oldest
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5   NEXT
keffler25       12/18/2014 10:10:30 AM
 
You usually find that totalitarians have BIG MOUTHs and announce their targets in advance. 
 
quote:
 
 

“Six Wars China is Sure to Fight in the Next 50 Years” suggests China fight a war with Vietnam over the South China Sea, place troops on the Spratly Islands and build ports, and intimidate others who “dare to challenge Chinese domination.”

The war over territories in the East China Sea would be more difficult against Japan’s advanced military, but “payback” is necessary for what the editorial calls Japan’s illegal occupation of the islands. The result of China’s victory would turn the East China Sea into an “inner lake of China,” according to the editorial

This editorial and others encouraging such conflict have gotten Western analysts to pay more attention to Chinese efforts at building a viable littoral capability to seize disputed islands.

Analysts point to China’s procurement of hovercraft, also known as air-cushioned landing craft, with special interest.

 In keeping with their predictable incompetence at applying purchased or stolen tech, the PRC plans for the Zubr are questionable:
 
 quote:
 
 

Not everyone views the Zubr as a practical invasion asset for small islets in the East and South China Seas. Carlyle Thayer, a maritime defense specialist at the Australian Defence Force Academy, said the vessel’s size renders it “ungainly for assault operations.”

The Zubr would also present a “huge target” as it “stands four stories high and would dwarf most of the physical features that China could conceivably occupy,” he said.

The behemoth also is restricted from operating in the South China Sea because its range is limited to 300 nautical miles without refueling. In addition, Thayer said, the hovercraft generates enough wash to make it difficult for small escort ships, such as patrol boats, corvettes and frigates, to operate alongside.

The use of tanks and armored personnel vehicles transported by the Zubr also is “unlikely” in the South China Sea because of the limited size of any islets China would seek to occupy, Thayer said.

Still, he said, the Zubr could “deliver a sizable force of several hundred marines” to any number of littoral locations that would be impossible for other vessels to enter. And the Zubr provides options.

Rather than taking a large force of 500 troops and equipment, the Zubr could be equipped to carry additional fuel necessary to transport 150 special operations troops and about 50 tons of weaponry to retake the Diaoyu (Senkaku to the Japanese) Islands in the East China Sea in about seven hours, Thayer said.

The speed of such operations raises questions about Japanese response time, Fisher said. “Can Japan detect initial preparations in time to issue sufficient diplomatic warnings, or can their decision process produce a timely preemptive deployment from bases in Okinawa?” ¦

 Just as the Russians found in the Baltic, the PRCs will discover that as soon as those behemoths put to sea, they become missile bait for radar homing and heat seeking anti-ship missiles. It is almost IMPOSSIBLE to signal manage a hovercraft.   
 
 AND I for one would enjoy seeing them learn that lesson the HARD way..
 
 
Quote    Reply

trenchsol       12/18/2014 12:07:28 PM
Zubr class has top speed of 63 knots, 55 knots sustained. Other friendly ships can't keep up with her. So, is it supposed to operate alone ? Like some kind of surprise landing operations in undefended areas ?
 
@Kefler
 
Perhaps she stands a better chance against smaller players, like Vietnam and Philippines ?
 
 
Quote    Reply

keffler25       12/18/2014 12:52:50 PM
1. I suppose that the PRCs tried to steal LCAC tech and found it until recently beyond them, or they really did not understand why the US did not build assault hovercraft and Ekranoplans. It, the Zubr, actually makes a sort of RUSSIAN sense if your goal is to attack Finland across the Baltic and if you have the air cover to pull it off. Otherwise I just don't see the logic. Even Zubr hovercraft can be pitched and swamped in a serious Pacific swell or storm. Those waters where China intends to operate are famous for typhoons as well as the usual stormy weather the broken island lee geography confers.  .  
 
2. Surprise raids could be possible, but we are talking three hours radius of action or six hours ONE WAY suicide missions. Once that thing shows up on OTH radar, if the other side has the political will (Japan) then it is a question as to how fast aircraft arrive overhead with the cure to the problem. Sink all floaters (call the Chinese bluff by sinking the Zubrs and their contents wither in transit or during landings) and the Chinese have to gamble on an escalation. Do they REALLY want a general Pacific War?     
 
3. Talk is cheap. A bluff only works once. 
 
4. If I see the Chinese build a lot of true air cushion ocean going combat escorts say like the Skjolds  then Japan could be in for a rough time of it on the surface, but that air-power equation still favors them. I don't see the PLAAF willing to die for the PLAN and its showboat operations in those dangerous waters and airspace.

 

@Kefler

 

Perhaps she stands a better chance against smaller players, like Vietnam and Philippines ?

 

 
Quote    Reply

tteng       12/18/2014 1:49:05 PM
Probably for rapid deployment to reinforce or re-take the future man-made island/airfields, in shallow water, dotted through out the South China Sea. 
 
Quote    Reply

keffler25       12/18/2014 2:07:34 PM
Plausible only if they have air superiority. After 2016? Nope.  

Probably for rapid deployment to reinforce or re-take the future man-made island/airfields, in shallow water, dotted through out the South China Sea. 

 
Quote    Reply

tteng       12/18/2014 2:54:09 PM
What happens in 2016?
 
Quote    Reply

Nate Dog    What happens in 2016   12/18/2014 5:50:26 PM
Japan starts receiving F-35's
 
I don't know that that's whats necessary for Japan to have air superiority.
Judging from what i know of Chinese aircraft, the F-15's they're currently fielding, coupled with the Mitsubishi copies of F-16's I'm pretty sure the Japanese already have the air superiority shtick stitched up.  
 
Quote    Reply

tteng       12/18/2014 9:08:19 PM
Japanese F-35/F-15/F-2 don't go to South China Sea.  It's a 2000+ miles round trip straight line from Okinawa to the middle of SCS.  If Taiwan objects to air space passage (not its fight), then it's 3000 miles round trip.  If PLA craters Okinawa air fields, then it is 4000 miles round trip back to home island.  If air-tankers are up, then they'll be the primary targets, not the fighters.  If China deploys S-400 (or future S-500) along its 1000 miles coastline, then it can get interesting.
 
Beside, does the US really want the F-35 to be prancing around so the PLA can sniff at it.  I thought F-35-net-work-system-within-system is an all-or-nothing ultimate weapon for the supposed final throw down, not for the daily air encounters.
 
Quote    Reply

Hotspur666       12/18/2014 10:52:11 PM
Hovercrafts are total garbage...watched them on the north slope and the Mackenzie river from above.
 
At every turn of the river, the poor craft had to virtually stop(no brakes or real steering) and restart in the different direction, like an aircraft constantly trying to take off.(burning all its fuel in short order.
 
Also salt water ingestion keep destroying the turbines, it goes up a shallow beach only with extreme difficulty
and is only at ease in absolutely flat country...
 
They never were used even when necessary...their Iraqi operation was a total disaster...Only the USA can afford to boast of a fleet of machines with absolutely no use. 
 
Quote    Reply

trenchsol       12/19/2014 4:08:06 AM
Keffler, you said that Zubr class might make sense for Russia if they decide to attack Finland. Perhaps it may make sense for China if the invade Taiwan ?
 
Not related to hovercraft, but, what if there is a double deception going on. Couple of years ago everyone believed  that China builds military to invade Taiwan. However, they turned their attention to South Pacific, deceiving everyone, more or less. What if that is the deception and they suddenly shift their attention back to Taiwan ? They want both, most likely, so they might keep shifting back and forth.
 
 
Quote    Reply
1 2 3 4 5   NEXT



 Latest
 News
 
 Most
 Read
 
 Most
 Commented
 Hot
 Topics