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Subject: The 20:80 'The significant few against the insignificant many' (Pareto's Law)
DragonReborn    9/7/2003 5:36:42 AM
This post is a follow on from a thread I made in fighters, bombers recon.

There have been several exhaustive studies into the effectiveness of troops (army, air force, navy) following action.

During the American Civil War it was noticed that many muskets and rifles strewn across the battlefield had multiple shots loaded into them (remember they were old breach loading), i.e. they had been loaded, not fired, and then loaded again, repeatedly.

This is just one example.

The reason?

Most studies have found that in a battle 20% of soldiers/airmen etc do 80% of the fighting (the 20:80 law is something that reoccurs repeatedly in the analysis of all human behaviour). These 20% have the fighting spirit or "killing nature".

So what about the other 80%!?

Most people do not relish the idea of taking another human beings life, and given the time to think about it and the opportunity to have the choice (i.e. having a gun and a target at range is different from 400 years ago when you had a sword or spear and the enemy was right in your face) many people will hesitate and/or choose not to engage. This is especially true of newbies who are seeing their first combat. Once you have been bloodied, it gets easier.

So what have our militaries done to solve this problem, i.e. you want 100% of your force to be combat effective, not just 20%!

The result of this research is the realisation that the problem is psychological.

The answer?

Today soldiers are exhaustively trained on firing ranges/simulators etc to fire at targets that suddenly pop up into their view.

This is repeated. Repeated to the point where it becomes a reflex response... enemy with weapon appears in view, you shoot. Effectively soldiers today are brainwashed to make shooting an enemy with a weapon, an instinctual response, ie as a reflex, the person doesn?t think about what they are doing in that instant, they just do it.

This dramatically increases the effectiveness of the troops. Obviously the more time spent on the range/simulator, the better, and so troops such as support troops etc who spend little time on the range etc will be less effective because that reflex response is probably not so well established in their minds.

What do people think about this? Do you agree there is this 20:80 rule and what are your opinons on ways to make forces more effective?
 
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Sam    RE:The 20:80 'The significant few against the insignificant many' (Pareto's Law)   9/8/2003 7:02:50 PM
You've got close to the truth. Reference must have been SLAMs Men against Fire. The truth is that 20% will pull the trigger. Only about 1 % are the hard corps killers who make a decision to aim in and take a life. The other 19% mostly make noise. The best reference for this is LtCol Dave Grossmans "On Killing". This is the book that all leaders should be required to read before going in harms way. I've been to 2 PMEs where he and Dr Giovante (Sp?) from the FBI accademy talked. I checked in off leave early for the second one, which was held on a saturday.No lie, He is that good. He named the science "Killology". You can visit his web site, Killology.com. The aspects of more effective killing are remarkable. The pop up tgts shaped like a human got us more shooters, as did 2 man fighting positions and 1st person shooting games. A few other factors come into play and he covers what causes/allows attrocities to occur (Milligren factors). It is truely a must read book for military and law enforcment personnel. From experence, this ain't sex, it doesn't get easier after the first time.
 
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Horsesoldier    RE:The 20:80 'The significant few against the insignificant many' (Pareto's Law)   9/8/2003 7:35:29 PM
Grossman's book is one of the best, and most thought-provoking pieces of military writing I've read. I'm in complete agreement about it being required reading for leaders -- and followers as well, in the military, I think. Thanks for the link to his website, had no idea such existed.
 
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Final Historian    RE:The 20:80 'The significant few against the insignificant many' (Pareto's Law)   11/2/2003 5:34:22 PM
I have read the book, and think that all soldiers should read it as well. To understand why the have problems doing what they are doing, and to know that these problems are actaully a good sign. Its when you stop caring about killing that you have to worry. Except of course for that small percentage of "sheep dogs."
 
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jastayme3    RE:The 20:80 'The significant few against the insignificant many' (Pareto's Law)   7/10/2006 7:49:59 PM
I would say this was cultural specific, not universal. Inhibitions are different at different times and places. Also the nature of the weapon has to be considered. The nine times loaded muskets are mentioned. There are a number of other accidents that happened with muskets, including the ramming rod being shot out like an arrow. Many soldiers are required to simply blaze away at the enemy. Snipers, who are required to kill slowly have to be really cold fish. People fighting hand to hand usually lose there inhibitions once they are in "push of pike". This depends on the weapon-a Greek hoplite for instance might not know whether or not he had killed anyone even if he was in the thick of it, sense he just could push his spear forward and gore on his spear could have been from a spattering from beside him. A Roman legionary with his short sword had to actually choose someone to kill. However in the melee he would probably lose control of himself and work on autopilot so to speak. Psychology can work the other way as well-a large number of atrocities were the result of the reaction to the overcharge of aggresive instinct. and the suppression of inhibition- like a fox in a chickencoop. This used to be so well known that before the days of efficient millitary police it was taken for granted that there would be a dreadful massacare if the besiegers got through and even reliativly chivalrous commanders resigned themselves to it.
 
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