Military History | How To Make War | Wars Around the World Rules of Use How to Behave on an Internet Forum
Leadership Discussion Board
   Return to Topic Page
Subject: Could Germany and the Axis powers have Won the Second World War?
Johnny Frost    1/16/2004 7:10:16 AM
The parameters for this debate are that the same countries were involved, and on the same sides. What can change is the sequence of operations, attacking Russia from south through Iraq/Iran etc. I have thought about this, and think that Germans probably could not take Britain, (I think they could have taken Russia to such an extent that they could dictate peace and or control the majority of the country such an extent to limit resistance) without destroying UK they would always have direct US/UK involvement in a mainland European battle. The best I think Germany could have achieved is stalemate in the west, with a long running air battle with UK/US. Whilst Germany diverted allot of resources to aiding Japan in fighting the US in the East. I don’t see how Germany and the other Axis powers could have won.
 
Quote    Reply

Show Only Poster Name and Title     Newest to Oldest
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23   NEXT
mike_golf    RE:Could Germany and the Axis powers have Won the Second World War?   1/18/2004 4:36:35 PM
There are two big questions that determined the course of the war in Europe and one smaller question. The war in the Pacific really wasn't in much doubt. Once the US Navy enters the picture Japan is doomed. The US can produce more ships a year than the entire IJN has. 1. When is Barbarossa launched? If it's not delayed for 6 weeks to allow the campaign in the Balkans, then Hitler destroys the Red Army and takes Moscow. Moscow was saved in reality due to a combination of an early, harsh winter and fresh divisions arriving from Siberia. Starting 6 weeks early removes those factors. 2. How much support does the US give the UK and USSR? If a Republican is elected president in 1940 the USSR will get very little if any support. Without that support the USSR cannot sustain itself throughout 1941 and 1942. 3. Minor question: is there an increase in German emphasis on the flanks of Europe? Especially North Africa. Had Germany intervened in North Africa in 1940 with Britain still reeling from France and Dunkirk then one German panzer division almost certainly could have taken Egypt. Yes, Germany could have defeated Russia. Once that happened, if the US had not yet entered the war, Britain is really in an endgame situation. No, the Germans can't invade yet. But they can focus their entire airforce on Britain. North Africa is lost and the Suez, not to mention the oilfields of the middle east. Without oil Britain is screwed, and they can't possibly buy enough from the US, who needs most of their oil for their own military. No, at that point, with the UK by themselves they have to come to terms.
 
Quote    Reply

Thomas    RE:Could Germany and the Axis powers have Won the Second World War?   1/19/2004 1:41:24 AM
Allway a pleasure to read a post from MG. I think the Pacific was a bit more in the balance, than that. A one point the US Navy was down to one aircraft carrier. With a bit more luck, the japanese would have been able to raid the US coast, destroy the Panama Canal - and the question remain wether the US would have tried for a negotiated peace. As it were: fortunately the navel war in the pacific and the Atlantic supplemented each other. The Pacific used the big units and the Atlantic used the small. Britain was very close to a defeat, not during the Battle of Britain, but during the Battle of the Atlantic. I agree that the Germans could have defeated the Russians, but the question is wether they could have occupied the area. The supply problem was huge and the German supply was not up to the task. One thing is grapping land, quite another is holding on to it. Furthermore is it a question, wether the whole North African campaing was a German mistake. As seen later in Italy, the soft underbelly of Europe had some rather nasty armour-plate.
 
Quote    Reply

gf0012-aus    Fragmented thoughts   1/19/2004 2:18:58 AM
I think Germany could have taken Russia up to Moscow if there was a later decision to move (certainly outside of a long winter committment). The principle issue then is whether the Germans would have cemented their logistics rather than continue to extend their reach. The next point is whether Germany would have secured the north sea ports as per Murmask and used it effectively as a sallying forth base against the Norwegians, Finns etc.. By securing Murmansk she would have possibly collected some of the North Sea Fleet and at least picked up 5-6 naval yards. All of these were deep sea facilities and also had a shipbuilding capability. This would have enabled shipbuilding opportunities during the winter when no allied vessels could have threatened the existing facilities. Murmansk would have given them a seasonally protected facility to build either vessels or armour. At the other end of the scale, if Rommel had not stopped momentarily when chasing the French and the Brits, he could have decimated the british EF at Dunkirk. An early victory at Dunkirk might have encouraged the Germans to move earlier into North Africa - and they would have been in a far stronger position. An early "complete" seizure of Dunkirk could also have changed the status of the number of vessels seized from the French Navy. A seizure of the middle east and rumania would have not only starved the british, but also would restrict the russians ability as well. WRT the Pacific, the question is, what if Pearl Harbour had worked? If the entire US Pac Fleets heavy assets were lost, then the Pacific War would have had an entirely different timeframe for closure. Hawai could have become the equivalent of a WW2 Diego Garcia. A german navy coupled with the Italians, and the entire French navy commanded by Darnell would have been able to directly challenge the english Med Fleet. The Italians would not have been able to do it thmeselves, but a italo-french surface fleet, plus the Italian submarine force (who were aggressive and professional) would have clearly changed the dynamics. Spain also, under such a clear change of German fortunes may have crossed over to the axis - and the Brits would have eventually lost Gibralter.
 
Quote    Reply

shawn    RE:Fragmented thoughts   1/19/2004 3:16:26 AM
My opinion has always been that the biggest mistake the Germans made in World War 2 was either (a) not attacking the Russians first, or (b) attacking the Russians after Operation Sea-Lion was a no go. I've actually gamed this scenario while studying International Relations in university. (a) In 1939, Europe was in a state of anticipation, but there was a sense of relief after Chamberlian's meeting with Hitler. It can be argued that Hitler could have disguised his invasion of Poland as a counter to the Russian invasion of Poland (granted, it was a secret deal between him and Stalin to invade jointly), then proceed to attack Russian forces, subsequently invading Russia proper. The Western allies had assumed a purely defensive posture, not even moving into Belgium. There was a probability that they would have sat on their hands while the Germans took care of the nasty communists. (b) Russia was a major supplier of agriculture and other material to Germany, even up to the eve of Barbarosa. By launching Barbarosa, the Germans actually cut a major source of their own supplies. It would have been advisable to have concentrated on a submarine blockade on England until it had capitulated. Why did things go the way they did? My opinion was that Adolf was a meglomanic who thought that he was a brilliant tactician, but we all know that amatuers study tactics, and experts study logistics.
 
Quote    Reply

phoage    RE:Could Germany and the Axis powers have Won the Second World War?    1/19/2004 5:04:09 AM
The only way the Axis could win is with a short war and/or keep the US out of it. If Hitler had continued the Battle of Britain against the RAF bases instead of switching to the blitz of London after the bombing of Berlin, the RAF would have been destroyed within a few days to a week. The Luftwaffe could then have had air superiority over the Channel for Operation Sea Lion and Britain would have fallen. If he had given his generals latitude to conduct Barberosa instead of interferring and constantly changing objectives and directions of attack, he would probably have captured Moscow before the winter, even without an earlier start. Starting the operation six weeks earlier would have certainly allowed him to clinch it. This mifgt not have caused the Soviets to surrender, but would have greatly hindered them. Finally, he should not have declared war on the US. He only had a defensive treaty with Japan and they were the aggressors. The US had no overt cause to declare war on Germany until Hitler did that and most of our military strengh went to Europe. The only thing the Jappanese could possibly have done that wouls have given then a chance of a negotiated peace would have been to hit the fuel storage farms and repair docks when the hit Pearl Harbor. This might have given them enough lee way to have negotiated a settlement. If they had declared war,(as they intended) hour before the attack, it might also have kept the Americans from deciding on a "war to the knife." The Japanese had no chance to beat the Americans in a standup war, with or without other axis help; and Yamamoto knew it and said so. Patrick A. Hoage
 
Quote    Reply

Johnny Frost    RE:Could Germany and the Axis powers have Won the Second World War?    1/19/2004 5:15:47 AM
For the purpose of this board I think we should keep the Germans declaring war on the US, as it totally changes the situation if not, and it is easy to state that the Germans could win by not declaring war on the USSR, or USA. On the Battle of Britain front, the question is, even with air superiority, could the axis have taken the UK. I think not. The royal navy would be concentrated to stop invasion. It may have taken a pounding, but would have only engaged when an invasion took place and thus could offset its own casualties with complete carnage on the German invasion barges. The second point is that D-Day was the biggest Human activity ever, in terms of resources I believe, and I just don't think the Germans had enough resources, to overcome even the weakened army and Home Guard. I see the defeat of the UK as the key thing for the Germans, without it the door is always open for US/UK involvement on Europe and thus diversion if resources from Russia where they are needed.
 
Quote    Reply

phoage    RE:Could Germany and the Axis powers have Won the Second World War?    1/20/2004 2:21:49 AM
I endorse your contention that Great Britain was pivotal to the German war effort. Hitler never wanted to fight GB. He was hoping they would stay out of it, or that they could be intimidated into a negotiated peace. For him, the real enemy was always Russia. He had the usual German disregard for France and of course there was Versailles that needed revenge but; I believe that if France had ignored the Polish invasion, Hitler would have ignored even France until he had defeated Russia. Since the formation of modern Germany, and even for Prussia before that, the constant threat to both German foreign ministers and the General staff has been being caught between the French hammer and the Russian anvil. Substituting GB for France did not change this immeasurably. Hitler needed to take care of GB before starting on Russia. ****I digress just for a moment**** I did not intend to suppress a war between Germany and the US. All I meant was for Hitler not to declare war on the US at that time. War with the US was almost inevitable at that time. Roosevelt wanted it; Churchill and Stalin needed it; and we were already helping both through lend-lease; a thinly disguised violation of neutrality if ever there was one. If Hitler had not declared war, Roosevelt might have had a hard time getting a declaration against Germany. Without the US help in the Battle of the Atlantic in 1942, Britain might have collapsed even though Germany was already involved with a two front war. Certainly it was foolish to take on a third powerful enemy when Germany was already stretched to the max. As for the Royal Navy concentrating to stop an invasion, they had their perennial problem of too many commitments and not enough ships. They may well have brought some of them home, but Coal Sea, Midway and others showed what happened to surface ships without air support. The invasion barges need not start across the Channel until the RN was history. The RN needed to be within a couple hours steaming distance of the invasion route before hand and could be picked off one or two at a time. Also, though it was smaller and much less effective for the most part; the Kriegsmarine could also have concentrated, and they would have had air support. Most of they German heavy units were taken out by aircraft. If the aircraft had not been available, the RN might have had a fight against air and surface units. Once the RN is neutralized, the invasion craft can cross. The Army and Home guard had almost no artillery or tanks. They had infantry weapons at best to oppose an army that had already beaten everyone who opposed them. The only fly in the ointment was your point about whether Germany would have had the resources to mount the invasion. Early in the war, they might have. Certainly at the time, the British thought so. And unlike the Allied invasion at Normandy, the Germans did not worry as much about logistics. They had shown already that they were not adverse to living off the country if necessary. Finally, invading a country and pacifying it are two different things. I doubt the Brits would have gone quietly into the night. Had the German invasion succeeded, they might have been faced with a two front partisan war. Patrick A. Hoage
 
Quote    Reply

Johnny Frost    RE:Could Germany and the Axis powers have Won the Second World War?    1/20/2004 4:11:38 AM
From playing many games of Advanced Third Reich the Board game, the best strategy for Germany is to cconcentrate on conquering the Balkans etc. Then really helping the Italien Navy to defeat the Britsih in the Med with German air power. Once the Italiens have naval superiority on can get supply for the Africa corp and quite easily take Suez, and Malta. This puts alot of pressure on Spain to allow access to invade Gibralter. ALL this makes the Uboat camapins of greater potency with the ability to slip in to teh atlantic un molested. The great thing though about driving the British from the Med is it allows attack on Russia from the South directly into the Cacuasas and the oil fileds and free up all the Italien troops and navy to gaurd France and take part in the battle of the atlantic. The Germans cant take the UK but they can stalemate it and gets the European German economy going to a great extent. This all means declaring war on Russia in 1944, and defeating her by 46. Once this is done Germany has effectivly won, but this is only the board game.
 
Quote    Reply

Thomas    RE:phoage    1/20/2004 7:39:44 AM
I concur that a US war with Germany was inevitable. I don't know how much You know about this, but aside from the extensive Naval assistance to Britain befor Pearl Harbor, the US did following: They took over the occupation of Iceland from The UK - and put some of their most advanced fighters on the island Mid 1941. On the 9th of april 1941 The US entered an agreement on US bases on Greenland with Danish Ambassador Kaufmann (he caught hell from the foreign secretary - untill after the war) - the construction was actually started in march 1941.
 
Quote    Reply

666    RE:Could Germany and the Axis powers have Won the Second World War?   1/28/2004 4:58:04 PM
GERMANY WON! Germany DID win the second world war! Who was the aggressor in the second world war, who started it? Germany! Who were the victims of the aggressor? Jews! What is Israel today? A dying third-world-desert-country, where people live in fear! What is Germany today? Europes biggest economy! And Germany still tells Jews what to do. Germany tells Israel to let 400 Arabs and a German terrorist free... and for what? A few bodies! Look at the news!
 
Quote    Reply
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23   NEXT



 Latest
 News
 
 Most
 Read
 
 Most
 Commented
 Hot
 Topics