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Subject:
Scenarios and Military Projections: Tandem Force Continuity
Maverick
11/2/2006 10:21:58 AM
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Scenarios and Military Projections: Tandem Force Continuity (excerpt)
By Terrance Jones
(From The Year 2000 A Framework for Speculation on the Next Thirty-Three Years By Herman Kahn and Anthony J. Wiener
(1) Scenarios are one way to force oneself and others to plunge into the unfamiliar and rapidly changing world of the present and the future:
Many scenarios are geared towards containing and amplifying the strategic intentions of a given nation state, group and or individuals. This allows military commanders to construct battle plans that are as close to all encompassing as possible. While some believe that this is impossible, it is hard to prove that strategies do not repeat themselves by way of cycles and interventional applications of the same. That being said, scenarios makes the unthinkable seem rational and plausible in most instances. In fact, military projections without the use of clearly defined scenarios are devoid of wisdom and the intuitive capabilities that are needed in order to subdue, defeat or deter enemy opposition. If Russia is reverting to their hard liner past, what are the benefits of such a move? Is this assertion just a hypothesis or does it have the augmentation of real world trends and cycles in diverse theatres across the globe? These are questions that must be answered and are examples of how important the uses of scenarios are to strategists, soldiers and leaders of all types. It is very important that scenarios are respected as a discipline and catalyst for innovation and success in international affairs. Scenarios use gauges the pulse of current events while providing guidance and protection from future atrocities due to the battle hardened and determined enemies of peace who seek to upset and disrupt the balance of global stability that has benefited from scenario use through war gaming and other scenario based entities. These same entities allow its practitioners to ascertain the strategic properties that are inherent in multiple disciplines be it war, diplomacy or economics for example. In a world where war involves a synthesis of all three of the aforementioned variables, scenario use is more relevant today than ever before in addition to being more diverse than ever as well.
(2) They dramatize and illustrate the possibilities they focus on in a very useful way. (They may do little or nothing for the possibilities they do not focus on.)
Example
Trends of Proxy War Provocations
The current trends of proxy war provocations pose a very serious threat to global peace due to region specific activities that are facilitated by proxy war relationships. The most dangerous of these threats are the threats that are posed by proxy war subordinates of Russia and China. North Korea and Iran are example of these subordinates in that they pose conventional, asymmetrical and nuclear threats individually and through flashpoint intervention factors that may bring Russia and China into the strategic picture as an opposing force to the will of America and the international community. North Korea has a relatively small nuclear arsenal yet that arsenal and their relationship with China threatens regional adversaries like South Korea and Japan. It is no coincidence that North Korea is preparing to test a nuclear weapon, as they intend to force America into concessions at a time when America is thoroughly engaged in fighting an insurgency in Iraq. Iran clearly intends to take advantage of what they see as an impossible scenario in regards to America being able to address a quadruple front dilemma in Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran and North Korea. Theoretically, the limited participation that is inherent in America?s coalition has sparked this type of thinking and will continue to do so until America enlists the aid of staunch allies like Israel and credible and militarily viable UN member states like France. Such a paradigm shift in America?s strategic thinking towards coalition building may turn out to be exactly what they need to deter aggressive policies by North Korea and Iran in lieu of America deciding whether to launch preemptive strikes against one or both nations.
Scenarios and Military Projections: Tandem Force Continuity (excerpt)
By Terrance Jones
(From The Year 2000 A Framework for Speculation on the Next Thirty-Three Years By Herman Kahn and Anthony J. Wiener
(1) Scenarios are one way to force oneself and others to plunge into the unfamiliar and rapidly changing world of the present and the future:
Many scenarios are geared towards containing and amplifying the strategic intentions of a given nation state, group and or individuals. This allows military commanders to construct battle plans that are as close to all encompassing as possible. While some believe that this is impossible, it is hard to prove that strategies do not repeat themselves by way of cycles and interventional applications of the same. That being said, scenarios makes the unthinkable seem rational and plausible in most instances. In fact, military projections without the use of clearly defined scenarios are devoid of wisdom and the intuitive capabilities that are needed in order to subdue, defeat or deter enemy opposition. If Russia is reverting to their hard liner past, what are the benefits of such a move? Is this assertion just a hypothesis or does it have the augmentation of real world trends and cycles in diverse theatres across the globe? These are questions that must be answered and are examples of how important the uses of scenarios are to strategists, soldiers and leaders of all types. It is very important that scenarios are respected as a discipline and catalyst for innovation and success in international affairs. Scenarios use gauges the pulse of current events while providing guidance and protection from future atrocities due to the battle hardened and determined enemies of peace who seek to upset and disrupt the balance of global stability that has benefited from scenario use through war gaming and other scenario based entities. These same entities allow its practitioners to ascertain the strategic properties that are inherent in multiple disciplines be it war, diplomacy or economics for example. In a world where war involves a synthesis of all three of the aforementioned variables, scenario use is more relevant today than ever before in addition to being more diverse than ever as well.
(2) They dramatize and illustrate the possibilities they focus on in a very useful way. (They may do little or nothing for the possibilities they do not focus on.)
Example
Trends of Proxy War Provocations
The current trends of proxy war provocations pose a very serious threat to global peace due to region specific activities that are facilitated by proxy war relationships. The most dangerous of these threats are the threats that are posed by proxy war subordinates of Russia and China. North Korea and Iran are example of these subordinates in that they pose conventional, asymmetrical and nuclear threats individually and through flashpoint intervention factors that may bring Russia and China into the strategic picture as an opposing force to the will of America and the international community. North Korea has a relatively small nuclear arsenal yet that arsenal and their relationship with China threatens regional adversaries like South Korea and Japan. It is no coincidence that North Korea is preparing to test a nuclear weapon, as they intend to force America into concessions at a time when America is thoroughly engaged in fighting an insurgency in Iraq. Iran clearly intends to take advantage of what they see as an impossible scenario in regards to America being able to address a quadruple front dilemma in Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran and North Korea. Theoretically, the limited participation that is inherent in America?s coalition has sparked this type of thinking and will continue to do so until America enlists the aid of staunch allies like Israel and credible and militarily viable UN member states like France. Such a paradigm shift in America?s strategic thinking towards coalition building may turn out to be exactly what they need to deter aggressive policies by North Korea and Iran in lieu of America deciding whether to launch preemptive strikes against one or both nations.
(3) They force the analyst to deal with details and dynamics that he might easily avoid treating if he restricted himself to abstract considerations. Typically no particular set of the many possible sets of details and dynamics seems especially worth treating, so none are treated, even though a detailed investigation of even a few arbitrarily chosen cases can be most helpful.
Example
Multi Sect Caliphate System
In Iraq, we see what has turned out to be the infancy stages of a multiple sect caliphate system. This system is a distinct paradigm shift that has overcome the many obstacles that have separated Islamic sects for decades. It is also important to note that these sects are being controlled by the fundamentalist elements who represent each sect. Al Qaeda represents Wahabi Muslims while Sunni and Shiite Muslims are represented by a wide assortment of insurgency groups who have joined Al Qaeda in waging a region specific and global war against America?s interests. This has allowed Al Qaeda to use its global network to propel itself at the head of the caliphate initiative even though Wahabi is one of the smallest sects in the Islamic world when compared to Sunni Muslims who represent over 80% of the Muslim population. This trend is highly indicative of how Islamic fundamentalist control the issuance of fatwas when they seemingly appear to represent the minority opinion concerning issues like jihad,today?s caliphate system and other issues that guide the Islamic world into the millennium age. At this rate, even with a rapidly changing leadership, Al Qaeda and its Sunni and Shiite allies will be able to institute a theoretical catalysis that is geared towards jihad initiatives in all regions of the world within 5 short years if left undeterred due to a Majlis (committee) caliphate system that spans across multiple Islamic sects.
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