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Subject:
US Exit Strategy: Feasible or Facetious
Jonzey
1/31/2007 10:30:02 AM
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U.S. Troop Withdrawal from Iraq: Feasible or Facetious?
By Terrance Jones ARNG
Multi Sect Insurgency
The multi sect insurgency that currently has the look and intensity of civil war in Iraq was facilitated by several mistakes in the early stages of the war. First, it was decided that a diametric regime change would be best for the country. This was a fatal mistake in that this strategy worked against the cosmopolis distribution of power that could have been brought into existence once Sadaam Hussein and his loyalist were surgically removed from power. Secondly, by not disarming and disbanding the multitude of dangerous sects operating in Iraq, the Shia majority was put in a position where they would be greatly controlled and influenced by Shia insurgent groups in order to ensure the safety of the Shia majority led government in its infancy stages. This reality has been maintained to this very day. It is also important to understand that by holding elections before disbanding all of the insurgent groups, Iraq was formed into a Shia suitor to its Iranian neighbors. The Sunni attacks against Iraqi Shiites have only pushed the Iraqi government closer to Iran. Third, America has chosen a surge strategy that seeks to decisively defeat insurgents at strategic points of engagement. However, this strategy needs the continuity and support of tight restrictions on the corrupt Shia majority led government that has strong ties to insurgents and Iranian sponsored terrorist if it is to be successful over the long haul. These restrictions are also needed if America is going to disrupt and defeat the insurgent groups who replenish their arsenal and manpower requirements during the seasonal reprieves that have allowed them to benefit from the absence of a hard pursuit strategy. Iraqi officials are not likely to give America permission to launch these types of initiatives now that they are in power and aligned with various insurgents in addition to their Iranian neighbors who have promised them technological and military assistance independent of coalition forces once they have withdrawn from Iraqi soil.
?Straw? Democracy
As you can see, the existence of a multi sect insurgency has led to a severely weakened form of democracy that is at the mercy of various insurgent clerics. These clerics have formed a de facto majlis/committee from which they can implement a covert form of fundamentalist Islam. This political model is not new, as Hamas and Hezbollah have instituted the same type of initiatives in their respective regions. In fact, most of these groups are greatly influenced by Iran who has one of the most repressive regimes in the world. To suggest an Iranian plot to form modular forms of ?straw? democracies would not be a stretch, as they are poised to exponentially increase their influence throughout the Middle East due to their strategic alliances with China and Russia
Regional Obstacles: Iranian led Shia Triumvirate
Some would scoff at the notion of a Shia triumvirate composed of Iran, Iraq and Syria, yet all of the pieces are in place in regards to validating this assertion as fact as opposed to fiction. Syria has publicly stated their intentions to support Iran in all of its initiatives. It has also been proven that Iran is supporting jihadist operating in Iraq. In fact, as I stated earlier the Shia majority led government in Iraq has secured a commitment from Iran to train its military forces upon the withdrawal of American and coalition forces. This triumvirate will only increase in lethality variables upon Iran?s success in obtaining a nuclear weapons capability. This scenario is highly probable and possible given the assistance that Iran has received from China and Russia and should not be taken lightly.As a nuclear power, Iran would represent a dangerous alternative to our Pakistani allies. This could cause Pakistan to revert to its past history of sponsoring terror in order to maintain a great deal of influence over non nuclear Islamic nations in the Middle East. Iran would clearly use their status as a nuclear nation to hold sway over these Islamic nations by threat and or blackmail due to its Chinese and Russian proxy war affiliates.
Societal Compliance: Troop Withdrawal vs. Force Continuity based Strategy
America?s ability to obtain and maintain the societal compliance of Iraqi citizens will be dramatically affected by their decision to either withdraw troops or maintain a strategic presence for force continuity purposes and benefits. Much of this compliance has been lost already due to the widespread violence that America has been unable to control. To withdraw troops under these circumstances would be tantamount to admitting defeat and refusing to honor the commitment that was made to the citizens of Iraq. Force continuity of a strategic nature is needed and should remain the primary strategy of the American led coalition forces. A troop withdrawal would quickly turn into an enablement factor in regards to Iran?s ability to strengthen their strategic ties with Iraq. Thus, further validating the existence of a Iranian, Iraqi, Syrian composed Shia triumvirate.
Troop Withdrawal based Coalition Obstacles
A troop withdrawal under the current conditions in Iraq would severely damage America?s ability to build competent and formidable coalitions for theatre specific incidents in the future. Many nations who have disdain for any substantive type of coalition based initiatives have used America?s failure to find weapons of mass destruction as a reason not to enlist in America?s war on terrorism. Because of this fact, it is imperative that America not leave Iraq into the hands of Iran and similar types of rogue and or terror sponsoring nations. By staying the course in Iraq in regards to good intentions and competent and well implemented strategies, America can change the minds of those in the international community who are against coalition based agendas that seek to protect the rights of the international community as a whole. America?s actions in Iraq may well decide whether this belief is widely held or definitively rejected by the world.
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