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Subject:
The Feasibility of Nuclear War
Jonzey
2/6/2007 9:01:12 AM
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The Nature and Feasibility of Thermonuclear War: A Comparative Analysis
By Terrance Jones
Why and how might a thermonuclear war be initiated?
A thermonuclear war can and will eventually be initiated due to the existence of nuclear weapons themselves. From the inception of the atomic age, military planners and strategists have prepared for an era when these weapons of mass destruction would be used to gain strategic advantages on a regional and or global specific basis. The proliferation of nuclear weapons over multi regional spectrums has facilitated an environment where nations must attempt to obtain these weapons directly or through proxy war alliances in order to preserve their interest at home and abroad. A failure to do so will cause these same nations to become pawns and victims of those who possess or have access to nuclear weapons. In fact, nations with large stockpiles of nuclear weapons can become victims of this reality should they not deal wisely with the aforementioned nations who do not have nuclear arsenals, therefore, the following scenarios are highly probable:
Increase in Reciprocal Proxy War Relationships
?In fact, nations with large stockpiles of nuclear weapons can become victims of this reality should they not deal wisely with the aforementioned nations who do not have nuclear arsenals?
(Jones)
The above quote speaks volumes about the dilemma faced by Russia in regards to their nuclear arsenal of well over ten thousand. Should Russia fail to distribute this arsenal over strategic areas of the globe, they will lose a large share of their foreign interests to smaller nations with rapidly developing nuclear weapons programs. Nations like Iran will exponentially increase their strategic influence abroad due to their technological advancements and global terrorist affiliations should they develop a nuclear arsenal without Russia?s assistance. This simple truth is what has motivated Russia to form a strategic alliance with a nation like Iran and similar relationships should be expected.
Diluted Versions of Democratic Forms of Government
Hamas and Hezbollah have proven to be very successful in diluting the democratic form of government. Their example has influenced various rogue and terrorist nation states in addition to enemy and competitor nations like Russia and China as well. Iran has been instrumental in assisting Hezbollah for decades and will clearly reap the benefits of establishing these veneer forms of fundamentalist-controlled governments. These types of ?straw? democracies will greatly assist the expansionist agendas of Russia and China who will willingly trade technological assistance for proxy war oversight roles over the regional and global actions of these nations in regards to nuclear proliferation and possible nuclear engagements. This type of alliance provides both Russia and China with buffer zones and task facilitation opportunities that will possibly force America into costly preparatory warfare postures.
The existence of diluted forms of democratic governments hold potentially catastrophic consequences for America and her allies due to the proxy war alliances that bring nuclear proliferation and flashpoint intervention factors into the strategic picture. These variables will become even more explosive when Iran obtains a nuclear weapon capability, as they already hold sway over a Shia triumvirate composed of Iran, Iraq and Syria. The existence of diluted forms of democratic governments in Islamic nations can and in many cases will spark a strategic catalysis effect over formerly moderate nations who will not resist the opportunity to form a strategic majlis/committee based coalition of Islamic nations. Iran and its terrorist affiliates will not hesitate to force these types of concessions and paradigm shifts if necessary.
?Is it really true that only an insane man would initiate a thermonuclear war, or are there circumstances in which the leaders of a country might rationally decide that thermonuclear war is the least undesirable of the available alternatives? ?
Herman Kahn, On Thermonuclear War
The answer to both questions is unequivocally yes, as there are individuals and groups of leaders who are positioning themselves for a future from which they can implement the covert-type tendencies that are suggested by Dr. Herman Kahn in ?On Thermonuclear War?.
Note the following:
?I would not be willing to predict, if our current inability seriously to threaten war continues, that the Soviets will immediately exploit this by going on a Hitler-type rampage. But if everybody recognizes the situation, it is not necessary for them to be so aggressive to make major gains.?
Herman Kahn, On Thermonuclear War
The above quotes clearly present the strategic picture that exists today in regards to covert tactics that are initiated through proxy war alliances. In this scenario, diplomatic, economic and militarily viable nations like Russia are capable of achieving strategic gains through their proxy war subordinates in diverse regions across the globe. These strategic and tactical initiatives will increase along with the expansion rate of the proxy war subordinates in instances where they are successful in developing nuclear deterrents that will eventually increase their diplomatic, economic and military viability. Any success that proxy war subordinates like North Korea and Iran have in developing their nuclear weapons capabilities will create an environment where individual and or groups of leaders can initiate a nuclear engagement due to the terrorist affiliates that these nations are aligned with. These factors can potentially destabilize multiple regions simultaneously should they continue to progress in their nuclear designs undeterred.
Note:
Abhorrence of Peace based Initiatives
?I also believe that no ?moderately prudent man? would ignore the possibility of even Hitler-type threats. I have found among too many people the utmost resistance to taking seriously the idea of ?gambling? or ?reckless? Russians.?
Herman Kahn, ?On Thermonuclear War?
Nations like Russia are willing to forego peace based initiatives and endure a thermonuclear engagement rather than disassociate themselves from proxy war subordinates that would significantly reduce Russia?s foreign interests in alternative scenarios where these proxy war subordinates would have strategic and tactical autonomy.
References
Kahn, Herman 1969. On Thermonuclear War. Greenwood Press. Westport, Connectic
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