Pat Buchanan wrote many articles/editorials decrying the administrations policies that transferred so much wealth to the communist Chinese during 2002-2008.  He said that by creating policies that permitted the transfer of so many dual-use technologies, plus hard-won manufacturing techniques (not to mention millions of jobs and the resulting loss of the tax base) would fuel China's military capabilities (and their budget), making them far more assertive if not outright belligerent.

 

The neo-conservatives ignored him - favoring short-term profits to long term national security - and the results are clear. While I'm hardly a big fan of Pat - I agreed with him on this issue - and he was right:  the USA's interests were being systematically sold out - and we're suffering for it - to quote former VP Richard B Cheney:  "BIG-TIME".

I suppose this situation would, normally, make Vietnam and Taiwan allies. I know very little about East Asia, but I think it will not happen. In East Asia nobody likes anybody else, so no serious alliances will happen anytime soon.

 

DG

 

In East Asia nobody likes anybody else, so no serious alliances will happen anytime soon.

 

I think it's a combination of that and a lack of trust, combined with a tradition of hoping that the crocodile eats them last. My sense is that they are extremely short term thinkers. How else did China get this big? None of its neighbors had the sense to cooperate in order to keep the dragon at bay.

Suffering big time?  Really?  Assume that China and the USA were not trading at all, what would that change?  I still don't want to go to war with China to get some uninhabited island returned to the Philippines.  How about if we recognize China's claim in exchange for them helping us out with Iran.  You know the people shouting "Death to America" and building nuclear weapons.

Frankly Scarlet, er...Scott, I really don't give a damn about the South China Sea.  Phillipines - looks like you shouldn't have kicked us out of Subic Bay, eh?  Viet Nam?  'Nuff said.  Taiwan?  My iPad is made on the mainland, and I need them to keep sponging up our worthless dollars more than I need you.  Hell, Taiwan is almost more of a burden around the neck of the US than Israel is - both examples of one-way "friendships".

 

China can only play this game in the South China Sea, let them have it.  Hell, they are soon to be the world's #1 economy, and the 800 lb gorilla usually gets a few bananas belonging to smaller apes. 

 

The idea of a shooting war between the US and China is absurd.  We are in a new MAD configuration:  They could tank our economy by dumping $2,000,000,000,000, and we can tank theirs through a boycott of their manufactured goods.  The US won the ideology war:  capitalism revealed communism for what it really is.  Future challenges and conflicts will be all about resources, and the US and China don't really butt heads here directly. 

Scarlet, 

 

It's not that simple.

 

The PRC is in dire economic straights, just like the subprime crash but potentially a lot worse - to try and save its economy from cardiac arrest the CCP has just authorised a new batch of shiny infrastructure development to buoy up their construction sector while they are simultaneously manipulating their currency to keep exporters above water - electricity consumption and shipping container volumes tells the true story - they are desperate and soon they'll have more important things to worry about as the inevitable implosion happens. I find with economics what is obvious tends to drag out for around half a decade longer than anyone thinks possible - that is to say, disaster strikes at the point when everyone has convinced themselves the danger is passed. 

 

Even if that wasn't the case they have a series of major social problems to deal with, their rising standard (and cost) of living means that their rapidly ageing population is going to be a real burden around the necks of the "productive" youth - not to mention the gender imbalance, the growing success of regional protests - wheras the government used to send in the APC's now they desperately try to settle the matter quasi-amicably - that is how scared they are of internal unrest right now - and this is part of a gradual process of westernisation that is happening right across the spectrum. In short the PRC has an enormous amount of shit to contend with, and in some ways, with due hindsight, trade and interaction with the west will come to be seen as the key - it's an ideology that has defeated all it has touched sooner or later, the CCP might think itself able to "manage" this transition from dictatorship to the current hybridised system but that is simply because economic growth has continued in the right direction. 

 

The PRC will modernise, and it will continue the trend of gradually becoming something resembling a free nation - the CCP are pragmatists not ideologues, communism to them is a tool, nothing more - when they are forced to make concessions, they will make them. 

 

As to the military threat, that will depend on the nature of their internal development, but they have a very rocky demographic and economic situation to look forward to and that might even take the form of a mass uprising, however much they posture and assert themselves regionally I suspect that the simple logistical and economic futility of a major war with the US or Japan will prevent it from occurring.

 

That said, I agree wholeheartedly that we are mad to have allowed so many manufacturing jobs to travel eastwards, that we have been so remiss in terms of tech-theft and espionage, that we continue to humour Chinese petulance - the West does need to wake up big time but there is a real need here to separate the PRC and the general Chinese populations, who are by and large, peaceful, law-abiding and good - sooner or later they will get the rights they deserve, and I'd argue that it'll be far sooner than almost anyone expects.

 

R 

 

 

 

The neo-conservatives ignored him - favoring short-term profits to long term national security - and the results are clear. While I'm hardly a big fan of Pat - I agreed with him on this issue - and he was right:  the USA's interests were being systematically sold out - and we're suffering for it - to quote former VP Richard B Cheney:  "BIG-TIME".

Yeah it was Bill Clinton who gave China most-favored-nation trade status in 1995 and opened the floodgates of wealth transfer. It was Bill Clinton who approved the transfer of so much advanced space technology with military uses to China. It was Clinton who accepted Chinese money for his reelection.

Blaming Bush for the empty barn seven years after Clinton left the doors open is disingenuous at best.

Hay dumb ass. It is that easy and you have no idea. even the nazis made do with out a market Invade. 

 

I think you need to get out more Scott. 

I don't really care what you have to say, because i no 100% war is going to happen and a massive1 at that.

 

Well that's the problem I guess with being prescient, you know 100%, I should have known, it's obvious from your writing style that you're a genius. 

A country that wants to wipe out a race monks, should never get a market if they have of shows a evil side. Nazi  side.

 

Have you ever been to the PRC? The Tibetan situation isn't analogous to Nazi Germany, it's more analogous to any number of colonial land grabs throughout history but certainly far better in human terms than the oblivion your predecessors heaped on the similarly religious Australian aborigines. They haven't embarked on a pogrom of genocidal scope but rather seek to do what they do with all domestic religions - regulate and control them lest they provide a threat while developing resource extraction and urban areas as they see fit - I'd prefer they left Tibet alone too, but compared to what my British ancestors did in China and elsewhere it pales into insignificance.

I'm not going to waist my time with you. i just hope you are young so i can see the look on your face when it happens and just like the people ww2 getting killed or at home seeing if there troops lose, there fucked.. 

 

Lol, you need to understand how the balance of power is maintained, it's Nuclear weapons that matter and actually almost nothing else - ask yourself what the PRC has to gain by being annihilated? 

From 1945 we tried to beat a comminist country to make freedom and stop the nuclear war. they did it 80 years layter and the relif was massive, and is shows to the peace we have has for 25 years. just look at people like you. you don't no what reality is.

 

Scott, I suspect you are quite stupid really. " you don't no ", you're one of those dunning-kruger candidates, you are of reasonably low intelligence (which is apparent from your writing) and as a result of this you are unable to understand your own limitations, thus you declare yourself an expert on the future whilst being able to even write in your primary language without sounding like a school drop-out.

O 25 years or peace and kids growing up in a dream world is almost over, time for reality and war.

 

Riiight...  

100% china is going to start a war, that will 100% lead to world war. nuclear war. 

 

Lol, so what are they waiting for Scott? If they're after a nuclear war why aren't they rapidly developing their nuclear arsenal? Why don't they aim for >1000 warheads instead of ~50 and thus give themselves a fighting chance, why do they worry so much about calming internal dissent of late rather than simply killing all involved? Why have they built themselves into an economic condition where any trading shocks with the West have the net effect of destroying their economy?

 

You are a simpleton.

 

R 

The thing is, you're stupid; it's not worth the time to reply to you.

 

R 

 

 

"told use not to reply"

 

Scott did you ever get even a rudimentary education? You do realise that your level of written English alone will be a major hurdle in life?

 

I would advise you to spend less time worrying about China, and especially their magic yet-to-be-invented "jamming devises" and focus on being able to write your own language.

 

R