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Subject: Deutschland Unter Alles
SYSOP    10/13/2014 5:18:32 AM
 
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WarNerd       10/13/2014 10:59:59 AM
Wonder what effect, if any, the situation in the Ukraine is having on military budgets and preparedness of the nations of Europe?
 
A Russian blitz of the Baltic States would be difficult to prevent and impossible to reverse with current available forces, but sufficient to destroy NATO politically and put the current leftist governments out of power.  So there has to be some concern, if only to keep their jobs and power.
 
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trenchsol       10/13/2014 3:03:12 PM
Unlike Germany, UK and France are capable to conduct and sustain military operations, even abroad. Yet, Germany is wealthier than both countries, has solid military traditions,  and there is no obvious cause for this. So, I believe there is some 'politics' involved.
 
In a past few years Germany often had different ideas than other western allies. Considering Iraq, Iran, Eastern Europe and in some other matters. Perhaps they are 'stalling', simply avoiding to commit their resources to the politics they don't agree with.
 
 
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Keith       10/13/2014 11:36:00 PM
Dump the Europeans.  They hate our guts.  Why would we possibly want to protect them?
 
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Reactive       10/14/2014 6:50:34 AM
@WN
 
If you were to look at the balance of air power, the combined European forces far outweigh that which Russia could commit. Different story on the ground obviously.  
 
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leftwinger       10/14/2014 3:54:18 PM
"Dump the Europeans. They hate our guts." I don't think that is true at all. They may disagree with many of our policies, and unnecessary wars such as Iraq, but they don't hate us. At least, that has been my experience when I traveled in Europe. Some were very friendly when they found I was American. Many European countries sent troops to Afghanistan to support us as NATO allies. Granted, many did not perform very well, but some did. Let's not forget that Denmark, yes Denmark, had one of the highest casualties rates per capita. Many of these same countries are lining up to help battle ISIS. I agree that for far too long our European allies depended on the U.S. military might, and nuclear umbrella, to keep military expenditures down.
 
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Keith       10/14/2014 3:56:45 PM
Of course this is a hypothetical exercise, but . . .  
 
I'm not so sure Europe should apply too much confidence to their air forces without US guarantees.  I did a rough count of combat aircraft in Europe and came up with about 3000 fixed wing fighters and attack aircraft and around 300 attack helos.  
 
Now that looks pretty good on paper since these forces stand against around 2000 Russian fixed wing fighters and attack aircraft and around 115 attack helos, but keep in mind the following.  Right now both Europe and Russia are abysmal at maintaining combat readiness of their air forces.  If Russia were to quietly get all or most of their air wings up in the air they could easily outnumber European combat ready aircraft--perhaps by a lot.  
 
Russia could use the advantage of surprise to take out quite a few European assets on a first strike.  After that, Russia would again have the advantage of fielding its forces under a single command, not having to spend time concentrating forces or having to worry about individual countries holding back aircraft for national defense.  
 
And remember that the bomb is effectively no longer a viable option.  Modern day Europeans wouldn't dare consider nuclear warfare--especially not in their home countries.  And once Russia had either neutralized the European air forces or at least fought them to a draw, their land forces would run wild.  
 
I would normally give quite a few extra points for anyone fighting on their home turf; but in the case of Europe could you really imagine a bunch of highly civilized, unarmed-by-law Gucci suits doing much of anything?  Far more likely they would quickly surrender once their militaries were disabled and wait for the international "outrage" to get them their freedom.  And wait, and wait, and wait . . . . 
 
Most of these countries haven't fought a war in seventy years.  Even with constant combat experience the US military still makes plenty of gaffs all on their own.  
 
In this (admittedly) extremely simplified scenario, I might actually put my money on Russia.
 
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Keith       10/14/2014 4:09:59 PM
Their love for us is as fickle as today's current US policies.  The moment we do something that isn't to their delicate sensibilities, we're relegated to bloodthirsty cowboys again--biggest threat to world peace! (remember that one).  Never mind the hypocrisy of their doing effectively nothing.  
 
I'm sure they loved you because--coming from the left wing--I'm sure you were slamming the US every chance you got for a slap on the back.  (And don't even try to deny it.  I have way too much experience with Americans' behavior overseas.)
 
Am I a little bitter?  Oh, yeah! 
 
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Keith       10/14/2014 4:13:26 PM
Their love for us is as fickle as today's current US policies.  The moment we do something that isn't to their delicate sensibilities, we're relegated to bloodthirsty cowboys again--biggest threat to world peace! (remember that one).  Never mind the hypocrisy of their doing effectively nothing.  
 
I'm sure they loved you because--coming from the left wing--I'm sure you were slamming the US every chance you got for a slap on the back.  (And don't even try to deny it.  I have way too much experience with Americans' behavior overseas.)
 
Am I a little bitter?  Oh, yeah! 
 
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Nate Dog    where do you get your numbers from son?   10/14/2014 6:48:31 PM
3000 fixed wing fighter?
Germany, which only has 109 Eurofighter Typhoons, having retired most of their older tornados.. and can currently only field less than a dozen of them.
France and England between them are marginally better off, but 3000 fixed wing fighters/strike aircraft? 
I doubt Europe could combine an airforce of more than 400 effective planes, and lets face it, most of the British and French assets are spread over mid east and africa right now, and those are the ones that are in flyable condition.
Not to worry. Russia is even worse off. Right now, they've got less than 400 effective fighters, much less, and those are deployed to counter Europe to the west, China to the east, and Turkey to the south.
All this is nonsense anyway, you can't discount the BOMB merely cause its not convenient to your argument. If Russian forces start marching west and look like they may actually find the correct roads and not be slaughtered in place by the Euros (you forget the Georgian lesson, you can have all the wars you want, so long as the US agrees that you can have your wars, else, your satnav won't work, which means your planes go back to not finding shit, your troops can't coordinate anything, and oh yea, not one precision guided munition works. but don't you worry, Euro and US stuff will still work just fine)…. you can bet a nuclear conflagration would engulf the globe faster than you can say jack robbinson.
Luckily, not even Putin is stupid enough to try that one on for size. 
 
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Nate Dog    where do you get your numbers from son?   10/14/2014 6:51:25 PM
Sorry Keith,
Forgot to mention, If russia could get more of their birds in the air, they would. Its not a matter of willpower, or shooting a few colonels to make their troops work harder. Its worn out parts, replacements not even at the tooling stage to manufacture more. Maintenance that requires swapping out worn out components with ones that not only dont yet exist, but the plans to produce them belong to companies that no longer exist… 
Russia couldn't field another squadron in 6 months if they tried... 
 
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