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Subject: Japan Responds To The Chinese Threat
SYSOP    2/28/2015 6:36:30 AM
 
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joe6pack       2/28/2015 6:15:33 PM
"This doesn’t bother China as much as constant Japanese chatter about developing nuclear weapons."

Simply not going to happen.  The only chatter that comes from is from the extreme....right.  The public would not stand for it.  That's not to say things might change..  Some more feckless U.S. administrations that bring into (further) question the U.S. reliability / nuclear umbrella... and some really over the top aggression by China (and it would have to be pretty bad...)  and you get a weak maybe..
 
But other than that.. it isn't going to happen.  It's just China taking some nutcases words to use for their own domestic PR.. or to try and stick to the Japanese.. 
 
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HeavyD       3/1/2015 12:42:16 AM
Bout time they start acting like the worlds 3rd largest economy.
 
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gandalf    Need more subs and ASW assets   3/1/2015 7:11:02 AM
A practical move for Japan would be to double its submarine force and add as many ASW assets it can manage. Sosus nets and other ASW multipliers would greatly increase the ability of Japan to keep its sea lanes of communication and commerce open considering Japan is flanked by 3 belligerent economies (2 world powers and one of the most unstable and desperate regimes on earth).
 
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Nate Dog    Gandalf   3/1/2015 8:49:34 AM
Clearly not yet Gandalf the grey, most likely still bright orange.

Doubling an 18 strong submarine fleet?
You're talking about a $40 billion investment! Roughly creating as many submarines in one hit as UK and France field together.
I think you'll find that for now the Japanese Navy is vastly more powerful than the Chinese ones. They've probably the worlds 2nd most powerful Navy after US, so no need to go nuts on a huge expansion. 20 ASW aircraft (P-8 equivalent) are already on order, so that fronts covered. 
Eventually, the Chinese should overtake the Japanes navy. Economies of scale. It's decades away, and i Don't know that the Chinese really are building a competent navy. We'll have to see them at least attempt action or join one of the proper Rim-Pac excursuses for us to know if they'll actually be able to fight.

Joe's 100% right. Nukes are such an anathema to Japanese, the populace would never ever countenance Japan having nuclear weapons.
I don't see 3 hostile economies. U.S. and Japanese economies have been expanding side by side, co-operation has been crazy close since the end of WW2. I don't see that changing any time soon.
Don't get competition and hostility confused. 1 is how the western world encourages growth, the other clearly isn't. 
 
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WarNerd       3/1/2015 7:33:24 PM
Joe's 100% right. Nukes are such an anathema to Japanese, the populace would never ever countenance Japan having nuclear weapons.
I wouldn’t say never, especially if the people begin to feel that their country is not being respected.  If North Korea were to actually launch a nuke anywhere close to Japan (highly likely in any future conflict) or the Chinese threat gets to large (say, invading the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands) opinion would change quickly, especially if the US waffles its response.  Japan has the capacity to produce nuclear weapons in only a couple months.  The technology is there and maybe even designs are ready, but as you say they just don’t want them. For now.
 
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joe6pack    WN   3/1/2015 9:44:58 PM
I'd say that was somewhat more likely prior to the Fukashima fiasco..  It has Japan's public in a particular anti-nuclear uproar.. No matter how detrimental moving off nuclear power is going to be for their economy.  and the government is dragging their heels as much as they can..
 
North Korea's nuclear missile tests might get the SDF some cruise missiles and or long range (conventional) ballistic missiles.. But the Japanese public simply won't tolerate a nuclear armed Japan. And lets face it.. the region would go nuts.. the South Koreans would follow.. and China would probably view it like the Cuban missile crisis..  All of that, would be highly unacceptable to the general Japanese public..I just don't see it.

Although I entirely agree they could be, rather quickly and easily.. I'd be somewhat surprised if it's not even at a point of (some assembly required) and there you have it..  But short of actually nuking Japan.. and the U.S. not doing something about it..
 
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Mikko    Overall quality   3/2/2015 9:56:06 AM
Slightly off-topic but asking the enlightened nevertheless:
 
How high quality are Japanese troops today? They have modern systems for sure but do they also have high-quality leaders and killers employed, the best and brightest of their generation, people that can achieve high kill/casualty ratio when battalions meet on ground on equal terms?
 
I know they have a strong history in being tough and dedicated but military posture hasn't been on top of their list for a few decades now. That's why I am asking.
 
As I understand they did have a considerable disadvantage in their warrior code during WW2; prioritizing honor over long-term gain (dying for the sake of it, rather than sparing forces for fights they can win). All of this is probably done with by now but what came after that? 
 
 
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keffler25       3/2/2015 10:39:21 AM
 
 
The request by the local ROK commander in Sudan to his Japanese counterpart for ammunition, after his supply chain failed, and the Seoul hostile response to it and to Japan  for supplying the request instead, as well as Tokyo's three ring circus exercise to expedite it, shows just how screwed up East Asia really is. Not all of the crazies are in Pyongyong or Beijing. 
 
 
They have the tools and I THINK they have the men, but the Japanese leadership is schizoid to the max. 
 
 
 
 
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Sty0pa       3/2/2015 11:53:58 AM
"But the Chinese believe that decades of anti-nuke militancy would prevent Japan from actually going down this road"
 
Japan has a pacifist culture, certainly, but they are also technologically cutting-edge, fanatically secretive when they want to be, and are the only country that's actually suffered nuclear attack.
 
In short, knowing that as early as the 1980s there was a secret nuclear program established by a not-to-be-named Western European country (that feared it would be the cockpit of WW3 and whose aggressive history in the 20th Century would have meant such a program publicly admitted would have "freaked the shit out of" its neighbors) with deployed "insurance" launchers in a very small South American country, I'd be willing to place heavy money on the idea that Japan has exactly as many nuclear weapons as it wants at *any* given moment.  
 
Given the number of nuclear facilities in the country, and the relative lack of AEA scrutiny they've seen, they could probably put dozens if not scores of such weapons together in moments. 
 
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joe6pack    My speculation..   3/2/2015 12:29:40 PM
"How high quality are Japanese troops today? They have modern systems for sure but do they also have high-quality leaders and killers employed, the best and brightest of their generation, people that can achieve high kill/casualty ratio when battalions meet on ground on equal terms? "
 
I suspect, but don't know, that the Air and Naval forces are of rather high quality.
 
I'm somewhat dubious of the SDF land forces.. They have limited training areas, limited "real world" experience and spend a fair amount of time doing disaster relief / preparedness.  They are also built around the idea of a defensive force.  Defending the Japanese home islands..  Given a scenario of defending Japan, I suspect they would do quite well.  On an expeditionary  / offensive scenario.. I'm not as sure.  I have read some articles about "hazing" and bizarre (over the top) disciplinary measures.. I don't think that speaks well to the NCO and Officer corps.. but it may also be cultural bias.
 
Just as a side comment.. I read an article a ways back, regarding the number of Japanese in the French Foreign Legion.. for young Japanese men, looking a chance to actually fight, that was sort of viewed as the only viable alternative.   So, I do wonder if that hurts the force quality a bit.. people looking at the SDF as sort of peace corps / government job.. and the "warriors".. looking for some other vocation..
 
Culturally, they are also a very top down society.. I'm not sure how much that plays out in the SDF.. but I'm thinking that your Japanese platoon leaders and company commanders might be more prone to waiting on orders from higher rather than taking initiative on their own (total speculation on my part.. have nothing to back it with).  
 
 
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