be the effect of lobyists on the aquisition/ development process if there are a few more big promise programs that deliver nada.

Stealth and UAVs immediately come to mind as well as JPADS. Precision guided weapons of all sorts are only available to a few countries. Secure communications as well as more advanced battlefield computers, sniper detection improvements, along with sensors, would be my guess. Nothing dramatically new, but evolving. 

Perhaps, the end of compulsory military service. The war may become a job for specialists. Also, proper personal equipment may become too expensive for massive usage.

 

What about LASER weapons ? Fuel cells may provide necessary power for effective LASER weapons on the battlefield. Are we going to have highly reflective armor on tanks, which might deflect LASER beams ? No more camouflage patterns ?

 

DG

 

I think that the tank, should it remain viable, will keep camoflage to avoid detection and will develop a countermeasure to difuse the beam.

A laser antitank weapon is unlikely because of the power requirement, but autocannon equivalent weapons are reasonable. These would be easily capable of scrubbing off ERA style armor, probably some effect against non-ERA add on armor too, while simultaneously providing a homing point for a laser guided follow up from a ARGM or kinetic round.

 

But the real value for lasers would as AAA weapons, especially against the smaller drones, would be extremely valuable. They would also be exceptionally capable for area defense in the CRAM role.

What's not going to change is people predicting things like the aircraft carrier, tank, etc., will be made obsolete by advances in specific areas.  What's also not going to change is the central aspect of combined arms warfare.  What will change is the combined arms team will be gaining in information gathering and lethality.

 

By 2040 individual soldiers will not only be networked together but will likely be operating their own remote micro vehicles (land, aerial, etc).  What this will lead to is battlefield hacking, micro unmanned vehicle hunters and/or combat vehicles, and the overall disparity in forces increasing.  There will be a continued increase in the amount of urban combat due to varied reasons.

 

Tanks will gain more active defense systems, these have been in service for decades but are now becoming reliable.  Ships will have energy weapons with increased ability to shoot down missiles and aircraft resulting in submarines having an increased role engaging surface targets and will be countered by UUV's designed to engage torpedoes.  Cyber war will be order of magnitude more important.  The interesting question will be how the top tier nations prepare for combat in orbit.  One should assume many more smaller satellites and the importance of taking the enemies out quickly.  The most dangerous trend by 2040 is nuclear proliferation and the likelihood of seeing a limited nuclear war most likely in the Middle East and/or India.

I think that the use of the railroads as high speed transport is also significant   Witness the ability of the German Army to move the Eastern Front troops to the Western Front after the collapse of Russia in WWI.  Also in Russia and the US during WWII. 

 

I also think that the railgun technology will blossom with the advent of better portable power sources.  

I think it will involve legions of bare-breasted warrior vixens covered in oil.   

 

In Ironman 2 we have the line "Drones is Better" and this is the direction the future will take.

"In addition to carrying several computers and sensor systems, he might wear body armor that also provides air conditioning. Satellite communications, of course, and two way video. Exoskeletons are already in the works and may mature by then. A lot depends on breakthroughs in battery tech."

No, this isn't the way it will be, exoskeletons and other manned systems are all limited by the fragile human body, while drones can tolerate shocks and g-forces which will turn a human into jelly (machines can tolerate hundreds or thousands of gees undamaged). Drones have the added advantage of taking the fear of death out of the combat equation, and thereby boosting human performance and combat aggressiveness. Human shaped drones will therefore replace the infantry and ground cavalry, as they are already replacing aircraft. An athlete will use a biofeedback system that allows the full range of movement and provides parallel physical orientation, to control the motor functions of the drone; specialists will operate the weapons, sensors, etc... from HD touch screen surrounded stations. The first such drones will be large 20-30ft tall with pneumatic and internal combustion powered limbs capable of broken field running at hundreds of miles per hour, jump like the Hulk if not as invulnerable, treat tanks like the same, and be air dropped without a parachute. Armed with head mounted 20mm or 30mm cannon, back mounted Javelins, shoulder mounted anti-missile systems a la Predator, a full range of 360 degree sensors, as well as normal infantry hand weapons and tools like a trenching shovel sized to fit. A small turbine or rotary engine for electric (maybe fuel cell), pneumatic pump and tank, and fuel tank mounted internal in the hip region, computer support and communications mounted in an armored belly (the brain and nervous system), the head will contain the main weapon and 360 degree sensors, and ammunition for the shoulder and head mounted weapons in the chest. Bones and muscles will be replaced by light strong alloys, and a combination of pneumatic and internal combustion cylinders for both fine motor control and gross strength all balanced to perform as the normal human body for an intuitive understanding and the ultimate in user friendly performance.

I envision a squad of soldiers working as a team operating one drone, with 360 degree situational awareness, tied into all other assets like UAVs, Satellites, and other ground units. The speed and combat power of such a system would have to be measured as the equal of a Battalion or Brigade of normal infantry.

The beauty of all drone combat is that American blood will no longer be spilled, captured, tortured, or defiled by our
enemies. And our reluctance to endanger our troops will evaporate, at the same time as our combat power grows several fold.