To bad the Ukrainians are bogged down in the west. If they could gather enough tanks, and launch an offensive into Crimea to give Russia, a black eye, and cutt off supply lines. They could change the course of the war.

The Russians need a good beat down.

Putin won't accept defeat. He will nuke Kiev before accepting a black eye. If Russia loses Putin and his cabinet lose their popular support. And these guys love power more than anything. 

 

A respectable draw that can be sold as a major win at home is the best achievable outcome. Ukraine has to get its act together even for that. 

 

M 

I'm wondering if this isn't sort of a morale / public works project.. rather than a useful military one.

 

1) The numbers seem too low to be tactically.. much less strategically useful.

 

2) T-72's.. are basically junk.. as far as tanks go.. these days.

 

3) The T-84, is basically a modified T-80... paying nearly 4 million a unit for seems like madness (at least as far as value goes..)  

 

T64/72/80/84 et al is still 40 tonnes or so of tank.... and they aren't up against anything better....

 

>T64/72/80/84 et al is still 40 tonnes or so of tank.... and they aren't up against anything better....

 

I'm just thinking opportunity cost.  They don't appear to have the numbers of tanks (or skill) to make particular use of them...

 

You can buy a lot of other, more practical stuff.. at 4 million a pop..

Yup, I'd agree with that.  And RPG are everywhere, and with modern warheads.

 

But at the same time, if they have a factory of civilians building T84s for export anyway.... they may as well borrow some money from the West and produce some for themselves.  While expensive, you can't always divert industry very easily.

 

I'm just thinking opportunity cost.  They don't appear to have the numbers of tanks (or skill) to make particular use of them...

 

You can buy a lot of other, more practical stuff.. at 4 million a pop..

"but wouldn't march speed be important against the Russians in open plains mech warfare or are you thinking more about just getting those cities in the Donbas, back?"

 

From what I've read and observed, I don't think the Ukrainian military is really capable of managing either in its current state. They had apparently pretty much let the army go to rot post Warsaw Pact days.. they started out this conflict with poorly trained and equipped 12 month conscripts and vehicles that didn't run..  It's hard to imagine them putting together a cohesive mechanized force this far into a conflict they aren't winning.   Much of the mechanized stuff they've got working, they seem to have pissed away tossing it into fights piecemeal.

 

I'd focus on small unit actions.. basically, easier to train up on.  Easier to manage... and it provides some compartmentalization against a disaster..   

 

 My take.. given what few options they seem to have would be to start infest the countryside around the rebel held cities with small groups of infantry.. maybe platoon sized.. and start in on the attrition.  Run ambushes.. strangle and contain.. Try to out Spetsnaz the Spetsnaz.. it's their country after all...  I'd pay special attention to the border.. I'd rather be killing Russians than "rebels".. make it as difficult as possible for the Russians to keep their support up for the "rebels".. sending Russians home in body bags sends a message..

 

I'd also stop the shelling of my own cities..  They lack the power to take them back directly.. and the property destruction and civilian losses almost certainly not worth what ever limited enemy losses they inflict. 

 

I'd try to buy time with that.. and see what I could do to beg, borrow or steal enough resources to start putting together a better trained and equipped force....  And Or start working on a negotiated settlement..

 

There is General'nyy  Six Packatov's  10 minute.. armchair plan.