As rumors go Iran could possibly have have upto 200 1-5 ktons nukes.
North Korea declares the same amount in fissile amount--how much was sold to Islamic guard of Iran besides nukes from Kazaksathan. Opinions???

If the Iranians had a working nuke - they would have tested it for three good reasons:

 

1 - It would double the price of oil

2 - It would allow them to beat on their drums about how good they are

3 - It would double the price of oil

 

No nukes yet.  Keep watch on Google earth for activity in the mountainous regions for a underground test site.

Before any of this though, they would be attacked by several nations already if they were aware of it and that would be hard to conceal. But besides that...

 

 

 The original suggestion of 200 1-5kt nukes was in the context of small weapons. There is a BIG technological jump from building a nuclear device which is simply an uncontrolled fission reaction and an actual nuclear weapon. Iran would never get from a to b without testing. Testing would lead to detection. Detection would lead to being attacked. This is the early sixties all over again. The Iranians know this unless they are stupid.

 

So what is their real objective? It isn't a working nuke although they certainly would like the ability. The real objective is that they want concessions of Iraq. Iraq is what Iran is fighting over. They are content to use the possibility of nukes as leverage to negotiate something they really want. Remember what the defining moment of post revolution Iran was. The Iran-Iraq war. 1 million dead. Every Iranian over the age of 25-30 has probably in some way been affected by that war and the Iraqis. The people running Iran today were those fighting the Iraqis in the 1980's. The last thing they want to see is a resurgent Iraq backed by Washington threatening their ambitions. They see how powerful Germany, Japan and Italy have become after being beaten and occupied by the USA. If you are Iranian, that is a potential grave threat to your long term survival. Not some Israelis 900 miles away who can't do anything to you.  

 

So the Iranians are in essence taunting the USA with what it fears the most in order to get control over what it fears the most. This isn't about nukes or Israel. Lets hope for a lot of peoples sake this gets worked out long before something unfortunate happens.

 

-DA