I see it more as a territory/border conflict than as part of a master plan of a bunch of deviously cunning Russians. Don't you think you're jumping the gun a little? Russia is a sovereign nation that has always acted independantly. They experieced a decline into relative insignificance since the end of the cold war, and now they have an improving economy that allows them to throw some weight around. While this may not be what we in the US consider "good", it's only natural behavior for any powerful nation-state.

 

I may be out of place here but your post is disturbing and bordering on war mongering xenophobia. What we need with the ruskies is a fresh start of increased cooperation. Our past conflict and competition with Russia had more to do with political "natural selection" (for lack of a better term) than any kind of hatred or grievance. We need to remember this, and try to learn from past mistakes. Take this from a guy who to this day supports the war in Iraq.

First things first, I never said: start bombing the Reds! I am warning of a potential threat in the way that Hitler was a potential threat in the mid to late 1930's. It was the reaction that Europe of the mid to late 30's (I am speaking specifically of Britain and France) that gave Hitler the confidence to take the next step, occupy the Rhein, and the next, annex Austria, and the next, Fight for Fascists in Spain, and so on, and so on..... culminating with the capture of Czechoslovakia and the invasion of Poland when the light bulb finally went on over the allies heads that: Oh My! we are going to war! France and Brittain could have stood up to Hitler on many occasions prior to War and chose not too.

 

The time to reign in a aggressor is before he is powerful enough to make the fight close. Like now. Do that diplomatically and economically, and you won't have to fight a war. Let it just slide through appeasement and you will guarantee yourself a war, one the europeans will likely loose without US help.

 

On the subject of US help, I think the western Europeans should take the lead here and make it known that it is they who will not stand for aggression in the Georgian region. Russia will have to answer to them and these actions will not stand. If Russia wants the benefits of a liberal western economy it has to adopt the liberal pollitical interactions that flow with it with neighbors all around Russia. Whether or not they used to be under the heel of the Rodina!

 

Poisoning Ukranian politicians? Murdering outspoken media critics (sometimes on western soil)? Bears buzzing Scottland? and now invading Georgia? I know where this behavior came from but who can say where it will lead?

 

Check Six

 

Rocky

I still think we are stuck between a rock and a hard place when it comes to dealing with Russia at this point in time, we isolate them and send them to the dog house they become feral; we will be giving them the political fuel they need to keep the fires of a new cold war burning and thus choking the world with a smoke cloud of fear. Past dictators used fear to keep their population under control, our isolation of Russia will be used to keep their population humming to the tune of their nationalistic government. Ignoring this will cause the Russian leadership to think themselves stronger than they are, this could well lead to another war. 

The Russian point of view:

 

They see Saakashvili as we saw Saddam

They fear the ABM system because it is based in a country which basically hates Russia (Poland)

They don't understand why NATO a Cold War relic is still around while the Warsaw pact was dissolved.

 

We can't change their mind, but we can work round it, why make an enemy when you can make an ally? Will Russia fear NATO if it is part of it? Ignoring the political bullshit red tape which prevents Russia joining, if they were in, then these hostilities wouldn't exist whould they? This would force them to make a choice; show they can not just act but become a weatern-like country or show themselves to be the Russia as we saw them back in the Cold War, if you are under the sun shine you can't hide in the shadows.

Rocky, this is a comparison that i have been noting on SP for the past couple years and I believe recent events are bearing out my interpretation more and more.

 

I think you are quite right in exploring the similarities/differences of the analogy. The West's role in all this too must be looked upon with a critical eye. i.e. why was Germany demonized and pushed down this path and why are we doing the same to Russia?

 

A few notes about the Polish defence that many people don't know about. The Polish plan "Zachod" to defend the country was ill-conceived because it allowed for no strategic depth. Polish forces stood on the border instead of allowing themselves space to maneuver. However, this was not entirely a Polish mistake, as the French and British had craftily worded their alliance with Poland as to not guarantee the integrity of Polish territory. As Poland had justifiable fears that the Germans wanted Silesia/Slask, their industrialized area on the German border, the Poles feeared a Sudetenland land-grab type attack. For this reason, they placed their troops on the borders where their lines were broken and their forces enveloped.

 

The French and Brits also knew the contents of the secret Russian/German treaty annex, which set out the double Soviet/German invasion. However, for unknown reasons, the French and Brits chose NOT to tell the Poles of this. As a result, Polish defence plans were antiquated the moment they were adopted. The Romanian bridgehead plan was immediately not viable.

 

Thirdly, the French convinced the Poles not to mobilize their troops, even though the Germans had mobilized and were set to attack. The French reasoning was that they were afraid the Poles may "upset" the Nazis if they mobilized. As a result, when the attack came, the Poles were not up to full strength and the mobilization added to the chaotic logistics situation.

 

Finally, the French and Brits never came to the aid of the Poles militarily, leaving them to fight against two deadly foes at the same time.

 

Thus, although the Poles had a nearly impossible fight to begin with, it was made much worse by the quality of their allies. With allies like the 1939 French and Brits, it is better not to have any allies at all. I'm sure you will agree with me.

 

The point of all this is, if we are back in 1939, we should all afford much better assistance to our allies and not repeat the same mistakes of 1939.

And in the history books. GoG is ever the Russian apologist =). The similarities of German actions and global inaction then and Russian actions vs world inaction now are so similar its scary. The fact that people would even debate the eerie deja vu goes to show that the world still hasn't learned. Only way to stop an aggressor cold is with a quick decisive aggressive action of your own. Anything less only shows weakness and rewards the aggressive action.

 

GoG i'm sorry but trying to say that the west drove Russia into its current aggressor state is like blaming a community for the actions of a murderer. I just don't buy it. The Russian leader ship is comprised of former KGB goons who have long harbored a hatred for the west and nothing we could have done would have changed that. Just look at their treatment of their own people.

 

 Its funny that some people won't realize things till it hits them in the face. A year ago a US vs Russia thread was chided for being "outdated" and "unrealistic" because we're allies now  right?  Two democracies wouldn't war with each other.  That thread doesn't seem so stupid now huh, only a year later.

By the way, Rocky, why is there no mention on SP of the 10 french peacekeepers that were killed in Afghan? Maybe i'm just not looking in the right place. Lot of talk in the French press about that. How it happened, rumours that friendly fire did it, questions over Francae's future role, etc. Lot to discuss. Maybe I should start a thread?

ht***tp://strategypage.com/messageboards/board54.asp

The underlying thing that is bolstering Russia and ilk such as Iran and Venzuela is oil profits being gained with high oil prices. Find a way to reduce the need for oil thus deflating the price, thus taking away the bank from these guys. Energy independence will pay dividends for our economy and will have positive effects in the geopolitical situation. It is insane to enter an arms race if we will be paying for our stuff AND the enemies arms too.

 

I don't think this is simply a issue of energy independence but western energy independence will certainly inhibit Russia's ability to act on their aggressive nature. You and I agree completely then that the west should seek energy resources that do not include sending cash to the despots of the world. I suspect we might disagree on how that is accomplished though!

 

Check Six

 

Rocky

 

How often does one get a do over in life? Answer: almost never. In the US there is an office supply company who advertises shopping with them is like having an easy button. You push the button and your world's problems evaporate and the very worst of times become, manageable.

 

If anybody got a easy button / do over it is Russia. They lost several hudred million citizens in the last century to their own barbarity (Stalin & communism) and to a foreign invader (Germany, twice actually) with whom they had signed a treaty to carve up Europe. These folks made their own luck and all of it was bad. About as bad as it gets. They even spawned a clone of themselves on their own southern border who nearly went to war with them (Mao's China).  After that, they fought a 40-50 year war with the liberal western economy in an attempt to take over the world. The net result of these 10 or so consecutive 5 year plans was a nation that is/was bankrupt, depopulated, surrounded by enemies who hated them because of their barbarity, completely exhausted and without a moral compass. Lets face facts. Spare me please a great deal of pitty for a nation who have caused more death and destruction among humans than any other in history.

 

Do over? Yeah, they struck oil. Lots of it and quite frankly like mana from heaven were given another chance to redeem themselves. They have an opportunity to finance their growth into the 21st century, educate their people, make amends for their past with their enemies, finally a break.

 

Question: What have they got to show for that golden opportunity?

In my opinion more like Serbia prior to WW1 with establishing all new kinds of treaties and precedents that can act as a means to escalate a minor conflict into a major war between several great powers.