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Subject: what are the trump cards of USA and PRC
verong    1/14/2009 2:06:54 PM
Hey Folks,

the USA has nuke, and distance from PRC as its two biggest trump card. PRC has economic strangulation by ending exports to USA which would cost the USA almost as much as a nuke strick, and it also has the distance card, since it would take years for the USA to extend itself with enough conventional power to challenge the PRC and third the PRC has more manpower than the USA. Anybody think of any additional trump cards????

Sincerely,

Keith
 
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ArtyEngineer    Economic Warfare US vs PRC   1/14/2009 2:15:57 PM
Im going to caveat the following with teh fact that I dont know an awfull lot about economics so please be gently as you all corrrect my misconceptions!!!!
 
I strongly disagree with this idea that the PRC has some sort of economic strangle hold ove rthe US due to the fact that it a major supplier of cheap "Stuff" to teh US.  Is the entire PRC economy not extremely dependent on the massive trade deficit between teh US and itself?  I believe teh US would be able to find a supplier in Eastern Europe, India or South America much easier than China could find alternate buyers for it goods!
 
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Ispose    Achilles Heel   1/14/2009 2:52:33 PM
The easiest way to shut China down is to send in a B2 and blow the hell out of that big Dam on the Yangtze...that would swap half of China and shut down their economy for years....essentially long enough for the Central Gov't to dissolve and for China to go back to it's "Traditional" several dozen provinces each with its own warlord fighting the others....
Might not be a bad thing...we can still import our Rubber Dog DooDoo without the PRC's devaluation of the yen making the trade balance lopsided in their favor
 
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JFKY    My response   1/14/2009 3:01:53 PM
Our chief weapon is surprise...surprise and fear...fear and surprise.... Our two weapons are fear and surprise...and ruthless efficiency.... Our *three* weapons are fear, surprise, and ruthless efficiency...and an almost fanatical devotion to the Pope.... Our *four*...no... *Amongst* our weapons.... Amongst our weaponry...are such elements as fear, surprise.... I'll come in again.
 
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verong       1/14/2009 3:16:18 PM

Im going to caveat the following with teh fact that I dont know an awfull lot about economics so please be gently as you all corrrect my misconceptions!!!!

 

I strongly disagree with this idea that the PRC has some sort of economic strangle hold ove rthe US due to the fact that it a major supplier of cheap "Stuff" to teh US.  Is the entire PRC economy not extremely dependent on the massive trade deficit between teh US and itself?  I believe teh US would be able to find a supplier in Eastern Europe, India or South America much easier than China could find alternate buyers for it goods!



do you realize how much time it would take to replace the 30,000,000 pairs of shoes we import from China. do you realize the rest of the world only has so much extra they can build? then there is rebuilding internal capacity by the USA which would take years in the mean time PRC could convert their factories to produce military shoes or simply equip their military with what ever they were building for the US market.
 
Sincerely,
 
Keith
 
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verong       1/14/2009 3:19:11 PM

The easiest way to shut China down is to send in a B2 and blow the hell out of that big Dam on the Yangtze...that would swap half of China and shut down their economy for years....essentially long enough for the Central Gov't to dissolve and for China to go back to it's "Traditional" several dozen provinces each with its own warlord fighting the others....

Might not be a bad thing...we can still import our Rubber Dog DooDoo without the PRC's devaluation of the yen making the trade balance lopsided in their favor



The objective is to stay out of a fight do you not think the same
 
sincerely.
 
Keith
 
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Ispose    Re: Keith   1/14/2009 5:27:28 PM
The objective is to stay out of a fight do you not think the same
 
sincerely.
 
Keith
 
The objective is to stay out of a "Ground" fight...we do not have the resources to fight China on the Ground in China....we can wreck China by flooding them, sinking any shipping with our Naval advantage, and a few strikes on thier big Railway bridges. We can hurt their infrastructure...they can't hurt ours. This is all presuming a military confrontation
In a non military confrontation...it would be harder, but essentially removing China from most favored trade status, buy from alternative countries...India, S. Korea, taiwan, Indosnesia, restrict them from US banking Systems, etc...This would hurt us as well but I think we can buy from others easier than the Chinese can sell to others
 
 
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xylene       1/14/2009 7:13:00 PM
The US's biggest Achilles Heel is its own trade policy which incentivizes all types of businesses to outsource or leave it's domestic borders. Manufacturing creates wealth , it creates tangible products, it keeps essential skills and knowledge in the workforce, and a healthy vibrant manufacturing industry is an avenue of non-college graduates to achieve a form of upward mobility thus bolstering the middle class. A service related economy which our politicians and free traders espouse is akin to a barter system where wealth is not created , money is simply exchanged for various types of services. It's a closed loop and that is why clever people in such a system seek to "create" wealth from speculation and structured finance.
 
The US's advantage is it's sea and air power. It has the ability to project power in a way no other nation can match. What makes the USA a fearsome power is it's ability to strike with impunity with it's highly trained and competant blue water navy and long range bomber force. The USA also has defacto control of most world institutions. Most of China's neighbors trust the USA more than they do China. But most of all the USA has dollar hegemony. As the reserve currency of the world there is a demand for dollars. This allows the USA to spend beyond its means , an ability no other nation has.
 
China has some advantages as well and what is alarming it is very reminiscent to the advantages the USA portrayed early in it's history. It is a manufacturing powerhouse. Moreover it has massive manpower and ability to mass produce on a huge scale. It is alarming because even though the USA and western powers use the best gold plated sophisticated hardware eventually that advantage deteriorates in a long sustained fight. The PRC itself being an authoritarian government has it's advantages. It has much better central planning and decisions can be made quicker in a crisis that with a democracy. China's biggest advantage is that it has perception on it's side and also the greed of western business interests. China is perceieved as a vast market and up and coming superpower. This entices western businesses to turn their backs on their own and chase the dollars. These business interests are very powerful lobbys which can exert tremendous influence in Washington.
 
China's disadvantages are numerous. It has a huge population that has rising expectations. The curent global downturn will be a huge test for the PRC as you have a young generation that has never known anything except extraordinary economic growth in their lifetimes. China is also limited in in natural resources, it has limited access to the sea, and it does not have experience projecting power beyond it's borders.
 
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Ispose    Re: Xylene   1/15/2009 12:42:23 PM
You hit the naile SQUARELY on the head
 
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verong       1/15/2009 3:39:13 PM

You hit the naile SQUARELY on the head


Yes He did I was actually looking at the various deterrent factors the countries have over a North Korean invasion of South Korea. I figured that if North Korea gets a new leader things might go bad, thus a potential conflict
 
Sincerely,
 
Keith
 
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Softwar       1/15/2009 4:17:46 PM



You hit the naile SQUARELY on the head






Yes He did I was actually looking at the various deterrent factors the countries have over a North Korean invasion of South Korea. I figured that if North Korea gets a new leader things might go bad, thus a potential conflict

 

Sincerely,

 

Keith


First - the biggest disadvantage China has is its centralized form of government.  The leadership is the key and always has been.  They are quite willing to lose 200 million but our targeting is not anti-population.  The CCP can clearly comprehend tthe fact that the US targets them personally.  This factor has always been the achilles heel of totalitarian states.
Second - tactically China could be strangled by blocking the Straits between the pacific and indian oceans.  The Chinese are more than aware that their oil imports could be shut off by a few well placed Naval units.
 
Third - the PRC exports are suffering already with the downturn.  This can lead to big time unrest.  In short, we can seek other sources of imports or rebuild our manufacturing base but they have a limited export base.  Combine this with our Naval power and you can see that China would be isolated in a matter of days.
Fourth - Our biggest drawback has been the idiots who run our China policy.  The engagement policy - which has dominated the US/Sino relations since 1990 - has not made China any nicer nor has it helped the Chinese people move toward liberty.  It has made some people on both sides very rich at the expense of the US and Chinese citizens.
 
Finally, the DPRK will not invade South Korea - even the South Koreans know that.  One does not invade with a starving Army that has such low reserves of fuel that they will run out after 20 miles.  The South Koreans are more afraid of a collapse of the DPRK than some sort of invasion by Kim or anyone else.  So are the Chinese.  A DPRK implosion would flood both borders with millions of starving North Korean refugees.  The friends I have in the South Korean government are more afraid of a DPRK collapse because they estimate it will take upwards of a Trillion dollars to bring them out of the stone age.
 
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kensohaski    Turd World   1/17/2009 7:42:46 AM
The mongoloid Red Chinese have more than a billion people, a huge army, a racist attitude and a few nukes.  They have no advantage; this makes them dangerous.
 
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Parmenion    "Mogoloid"?   1/17/2009 7:54:44 PM
"mongoloid"? I think you're the racist one kensohaki.
 
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Parmenion    China's economic clout   1/17/2009 8:19:23 PM
As for China's economic clout, just remember who owns well over half of the US debt, since the last Japanese budget scramble. China can pull an economic widowmaker on the United States by calling in on it's loans. As for a trade embargo, well yes that will hurt China. But the Chinese people are a lot more pepared for and used to coping with hardship than even the average American. The loss of half it's exports due to the USA will not destabilise the PRC, it will do the opposite- galvanising the fiercely nationalistic Chinese people against a common enemy. As for US Naval attcks on Chinese imports, dream on mate. I mean fine, the USA has the world's best navy- you can talk about that all you like, just remember to keep a kleenex handy for when you're done. But no US administration would willingly start World War 3.
 
Because if you go after those oil supplies that's what you're doing, and China will respond with the scenario recently envisaged in the US wargames centred over the invasion of Taiwan, where "red team" shoots down US satellites which otside of cloud cuckoo land is nearly impossible to stop, and then proceeds to defeat or inflict critical losses on US forces defending Taiwan, relatively uncoordinated without their technology. Then after that, the gloves are off, and you'e got to think what Japan, Russia, and India will do. I'm not saying it looks great for China, but by week two US will be derided by it's allies, humiliated over it's first loss of a major pitched battle since the war of 1812, and having to chose between being paupered by it's debts being called in, or a self imposed exile form the world econmoic system which would be just as bad. But China wouldn't be stupid enough to let a war start, they're far smarter than that and playing a long, long game.
 
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EvilFishy       1/17/2009 10:12:57 PM

---As for China's economic clout, just remember who owns well over half of the US debt, since the last Japanese budget scramble. China can pull an economic widowmaker on the United States by calling in on it's loans.---

Speaking of ---cloud cuckoo land--- is that the place you visited while sleeping through Econ 101?

Do you know the definition of market value? How about the concept of supply and demand?

China sent the USA real, tangible assets in the form of materials, goods, and some services. What did China get? China got paper currency. What happens when a market is flooded with a good (supply exceeds demand)? Well, the price falls dramatically and quite quickly. What does this mean?

This means your little ---economic widowmaker--- is just that: FOR CHINA as dumping their supply of treasury notes, bonds, and all other securities on the market would drop the price to near nothingness.

Translation: China would have traded HARD, TANGIBLE, VALUABLE goods and services for what the equivalent of TOILET PAPER.

Keeping in mind the fact that China-s primary currency is still pegged to the Dollar (which I remind you is the world-s reserve currency) this would be the single fastest way to watch all of China-s wealth melt away so fast you could measure the downfall with an egg timer.

I am not saying this will not hurt the USA; hyper inflation seems inevitable at the current rate Congress treats the US taxpayer/piggy bank, but I am saying this will hurt China FAR MORE than it will hurt the USA (given a whole host or problems China enjoys while the USA does not).

---As for a trade embargo, well yes that will hurt China. But the Chinese people are a lot more prepared for and used to coping with hardship than even the average American.---

This is very true; the hardest time any American can remember is living with out a job and rationing food. The hardest time the Chinese can recall is a time when the Government-s incompetence cause the widespread starvation of TENS OF MILLIONS OF PEOPLE.

What relevance this has on MODERN DAY CHINA, I have no clue. People are people and once people get used to running water and electricity, doing with out will prove detrimental to any sitting government (regardless of the nation). You can bank of that.

---The loss of half it's exports due to the USA will not destabilise the PRC, it will do the opposite- galvanising the fiercely nationalistic Chinese people against a common enemy.---

So all those Chinese who are starving to death because they are out of work, who just had their life savings wiped out and who basically have nothing to live for will do, what, exactly?

---As for US Naval attacks on Chinese imports, dream on mate.---

People have been underestimating the USA for over 200 years and I see the trend endures to this day.

--- I mean fine, the USA has the world's best navy- you can talk about that all you like, just remember to keep a kleenex handy for when you're done.---

I do not need Kleenex; I prefer a moist towel when thinking of the USA-s navy and my families illustrious history in the United States Navy serving in the Civil War, Spanish American War, First World War, and Second World War.

---But no US administration would willingly start World War 3.---

I would not put money on that given some of the characters the USA has elected to the office of President.

---Because if you go after those oil supplies that's what you're doing, and China will respond with the scenario recently envisaged in the US wargames centred over the invasion of Taiwan, where "red team" shoots down US satellites which outside of cloud cuckoo land is nearly impossible to stop, and then proceeds to defeat or inflict critical losses on US forces defending Taiwan, relatively uncoordinated without their technology.---

Recall what I said about underestimating the United States? You just did it again.

The USN did just fine for 200 years with out satellite technology and they possess the power today to fight a war with out such toys.

---Then after that, the gloves are off, and you'e got to think what Japan, Russia, and India will do. I'm not saying it looks great for China, but by week two US will be derided by it's allies, humiliated over it's first loss of a major pitched battle since the war of 1812, and having to chose between being paupered by it's debts being called in, or a self imposed exile form the world econmoic system which would be just as bad.---

I suppose the American Civil War never happened... Your horrible history aside, none of the powers you listed would take too kindly to China when the -gloves are off- and would act in their own interests (which, in this case happen to be one and the same with that of America).

---But China wouldn't be stupid enough to let a war start, they're far smarter than that and playing a long, long game.---

You make many assumptions and assertions. Perhaps you should rethink this strategy.


 
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Parmenion    RE: Moist Towel?   1/18/2009 10:44:16 AM
Moist towel? I'm not even going to ask, but I do commed you and your family for their service and mean no offence to you personally. As for underestimating the USN, it's not me who did so, but the US military. Look up the recent wargames in Colorado I believe, and you will see that with the current level of satellite defenses, in a suprise attack red team conquered brown team- that's taiwan by the way, and inflicted heavy lossed on blue team bfore blue team could react. I'm sure that the USN could definintely win and probably invade Hong Kong if they felt like it, but you should remember your history too- a more powerful force can still be defeated if they're suprised and have their lines of communication temporarily cut. In the American civil war every engagment lost by US forces was by definition aslo won by US forces- so although great history, it's kind of irrelevant here.
 
As for the detailed economics, unless you can show me your ecnonomics degree I'm not going to get started, though I would remind you that a world in which the dollar becomes "Toilet paper", as you admitted, would be a disaster for the US, and you vastly underestimate the depth of the Chinese current account(s). Let's be simple, the US is a democracy based upon the rule of law and when massive loans are called in that has a demonstrable effect. Nothing the US can do econmically can hurt China to the same degree. The goverment is more than capable of feeding everyone useful, even if it's not quite in the style  the PROFESSIONAL URBAN MINORITY of Chinese people have come to expect. The Chinese are fiercely nationalistic- look at the demonstrations in anger over the Tibet-Olympic torch thing. If Robert Mugabe can still hang on in a far, far, far, far worse version of what the PRC might be in, then the Chinese communist party, who are not exactly pushovers, will be laughing. The one who controls the army has the power, this would probably set bck Chinese democracy by 30 years. I never said this scenario is a win for the Chinese, but ultimately the USA will lose more prestiege and also earn the ire of the Chinese people, not great for the US since sooner rather than later America will be the tail to China's economic dog.
 
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