Definitely 2010 is the year to watch Pakistan and China. China is bribing its way to power and Pakistan is an epic failure.

The biggest nuclear states to fail in the near future is not Pakistan. Its USof A and UK. Non nuke states at high risk are Greece, Spain, Venezuala. US is entering 2010 with high possiblity of hyper inflation - $2.5 trillion in unfinanced liabilities. Guess what happened in 1930s when a major military power had hyperinflation.

 

The obvious is really not that obvious. errr other cliches - sometimes we see and believe what we like too.

I am sure the US will not fall because of its economy. yes, there is a large deficit and plenty of debt to go around but remember we have the largest economy in the world --we can pay it. That is if Congress acts. Nonetheless, if the tough gets going...we can in fact not pay our bills. Debt is a loan and if we don't pay it our credit takes a hit and the country in question can take business assets of US corporations there but the US won't fall.

It's a dream for Le Zookepper for the US to fall but come on be reasonable: Pakistan is unstable and the US is a superpower that hasn't used all its weapons in its arsenal to fix its economy and win its wars. China is a threat, but it faces many enemies on many fronts. China needs to have its eyes on the US, India, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and maybe even Russia. Then still China needs to hold off Pro-democracy protesters and Uigher insurgents (can they be called insurgents?...I'm not sure). China has a lot on its hands.

Pakistan, they need a massive boost in order to be stable. They need something, maybe a rally call, massive influx of US help, or the Taliban to make a really dumb blunder. They need help and nuclear weapons isn't the answer. 

I don't have to look any further, enough said. Oh and I am American not Indian.

Look if the US dollar did collapse (which it won't) but if it did...there are other currencies that we could use. I do believe it was the Chinese that advocated that the world should shift to the Yuan as the international currency. The Euro is also a strong candidate. Look, just because the Dollar is gone (which it won't) doesn't mean the global economy would tank. There are plenty of options professional economists can choose to avert such a doomsday scenario. And who goes to war because of a failing economy? You go to war when you're strong. 

I expect Afghanistan to be the big story in 2010.  Obama finally committed to sending more troops to Afghanistan, so now people are going to want results.  The Taliban blew up a bunch of CIA agents earlier today, so they obviously have no intention of backing down.  If we do not start seeing substantial progress in the war I expect a lot of pressure from both sides of the political spectrum.  If Pakistan collapses the lid could blow right off the pressure cooker, especially if anti-Western elements take over.  In that scenario there may be no way to avoid a war, especially if the decision is made to sure Paki nukes. 

 

On the home front I expect a lot of bickering and nastiness, especially during the lead up to the fall elections.  I expect significant Republican gains, but I think the Dems will rally somewhat before November.  If there is another terrorist attack though, the Dems will more than likely get their butts handed to them.