The scenario is interesting, but impossible in every way.

 

To begin with, if these three countries were to attack Iran, it would set off a firestorm that would engulf the entire world. The Muslim world would see this as a full on attack. It could set off a world war if 3 European nations tried to invade and occupy Iran. Second, the fighting would completely disrupt the flow of oil thru the Hormuz Straits. The price of oil would double overnight, bringing the world economy to a halt.

 

Third, these 3 countries combined have maybe 200,000 troops ready to be deployed overseas: hardly enough to occupy Iran.

 

If the goal is to humiliate, crush or destroy its capacity to make war, I think this is possible thru SF raids, targetted attacks on defence, nuclear installations and infrastructure.But forget about occupation.

 

Let's say the US, for political reasons i.e. fear of the war engufling Iraq, refused to allow the Euros to use Iraq as a staging base. Where would the Euro3 base from? They could still use the base in Djibouti, but it would be a long haul. Corsica is a long way from Iran... And I don't think France or Germany have the airlift for such an extended operation. I am confident that the UK could send in a couple divisions and wipe away the opposition in the short term, but one does not win a war with a couple divisions or in a short term scenario....

 

As well, the Euro naval force supporting the troops would be sitting ducks. Think Falkland Islands times 10. The Iranians have increasingly specialized in anti-ship missles and they would have a field day. Euro naval casualties would be high.

 

In brief, the Euro3 could mount a very successful SF type operation to pulverise key Iranian defence assets, but trying to scale it up much more would end up causing the Euro3 a lot of grief....

 

 take a look at a topographical map of Iran. Then have a look at the size and composition of the Iranian armed forces and population. Weigh all of this against the size, composition and logistics of the French, British and Germans. Not to mention the politics. The answer is obvious.

 

-DA

Based on the huge assumption that a staging ground in Iraq were available, the UK could get, what? 40,000 troops during a surge, assuming there were no other major operations. Given the UK's superior sea lift ability it would take some time for the germans in particular to get sizeable forces into the region.

 

So, maybe 120-150,000 euro troops at a massive push (based on the larger numbers available to the germans). Logisitics shouldn't be too much of a nightmare , after all, they should all be NATO standardized. It would take a long time to buiild up enough of a force to bring to bear against the Iranians. The UK could probably put 40,000 on the ground in 3 months, The other two would take considerably longer, by which time you'd assume the Iranians would be waiting.

 

The Iranians have apparently, what, 350,000 troops, including 150,000 regulars? I'm going to be biased and say that the Euro 3 should be able to defeat the Iranian army - if they ever actually managed to get the boots on the ground, better weaponry, a higher standard of training with respect to the conscript part at least and, you'd hope, the professional part of the Iranian army, plus far more air support.

 

However, there is no way the Euro 3 could then keep hold of Iran, they would eventually be driven out through insurrection.They would never control more than part of the country and would have to massively increase their forces in order to stay... on the end of a 1,000 mile logistics line as well, the UK is currently struggling to support 12,500 troops in Afghanistan and Iraq, and that is with 4,000 troops not involved in any kind of ops.

 

So, after some rambling, my thinking would be this. If, by some miracle you could actually put enough troops on the ground to invade the place, yuo'd probably win, but it would take a great amny months to painstakingly build up such a force which would still be inadequate to garrisoning the country afterwards.

 It's inconceivable France, Britain and Germany could mass 150,000 soldiers in Iraq, sustained them and protect them while invading Iran. Not only with the entire logistics be vulnerable to interdiction. The Iranians occupy superior defensive positions and outnumber their attackers at least 3-1. Such an invasion force would never make it past the Zagros Mountains which are superbly defensible. The Iraqi's found that out the hard way. Only one military is capable of invading Iran and right now it is too preoccupied to even consider it.

 

Iran is best invaded from inside out. It's happened twice in modern history.

 

 

-DA

You make solid, common sense points (although 150,000 is a bit optimistic) but i'm inclinded to agree with DA in the final analysis. Even if 150,000 troops could be mustered by the Euro3, it would not be enough. SF type raids (a division or two at most) would be the only realistic option.

 

 

Sorry, the above comment should have been addressed to Prometheus.