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Subject: France is a relatively weak military power.
Nappy    6/23/2005 5:02:28 PM
France is a relatively weak military power in terms of the world. It has neither logisitcal nor economic capability to invade none other then it's neighbors (possibly a land invasion of England included). What do I mean by invasion? Ability to completely invade,dominate, and ultimately totally control (not like the "green zone" areas and chaos we see in Iraq). Germany is a possiblity but their armaments production capability is far higher then France. Spain is also a possiblity, but to be frank not possible due to the terrain(Pyrnees), and capability of the Spanish airforce (they have a significant airforce believe it or not, in fact with a budget of 8 billion annually just for the airforce.) England is a possiblity also, the French navy is significantly inferior to the English navy but it's possible to perhaps make a surprise landing. As far as comparing France to say an India. This is ludicrous. If India wishes, (this will NEVER happen) she could invade Russia and take Moscow (without Nuclear weapons of course), this could be done fairly easily by India (perhaps with a loss of 20-30 million Indians), Indians frankly pump out more and better qualified engineers, chemist then say France and Russia combined as per the DOW chemical company R&D report in 2004, and have a better capacity to utilize these resources, the Indian economy is much bigger in production capability then say a France or Russia (as output by ODM per operating cost). Finally, I just don't believe France has the "willpower" to do anything like an invasion. It's people are too inclined to luxuries and other wasteful and decadent excess that they will rather surrender or bargain with another power rather then fight. I do not mean to offend or upset anyone (in fact this is a complement to the highly developed social paradise setup by the French people) but the realities are that in a war France would probably roll over.
 
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french stratege       4/27/2009 10:15:05 AM
"RAF in tatters"
Bad news for UK
This year and for the next five years, France will spend 20% more than UK each year in procurement.
 
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Godofgamblers       4/27/2009 10:08:47 PM
And referring to my comments on French leadership (an army of sheep is dangerous if led by a Lion), what do you think of the Sarko gov't? He is surely of a different breed than his predecessors, Chirac, Mitterand, etc.
 
 
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Nichevo       4/27/2009 11:56:53 PM

Maybe sysop could open a special thread: French bashing and trolling.
Whith such topic like is France stronguer than Lichenstein, is Rafale better than a F4, are French more cowards under Napoleon than in WW1 etc..
I would avoid us to lose time and to polute this armed forces of the world.
A competition could be organised to elect the greatest troll on this forum.

No, Rafale is not better than an F-4.  The only thing better than an F-4 is:  two F-4s.
 
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Godofgamblers    Fenian raids on European countries   4/28/2009 12:33:14 AM
One point, my old friend: I agree with all your statements above, save one. You mention that France's borders are safe, it doesn't need conventional forces for border defence, but i disagree. There is little danger of conventional air-land battles taking place (though in 20 years time that may change as Russia's power grows and Europe's wanes), but the danger to French territory exists in assymetric terms.
 
Do not forget that there are now two Muslim nations in Europe that could become an assymetric threat. There are restive populations in France itself; and thirdly, it is not impossible to envisage "Fenian" type raids on France from neighboring countries.
 
Though unconventional, you would require conventional forces to meet these challenges.
 
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gf0012-aust       4/28/2009 4:26:26 AM

I hope we procure 4 C17 as a gap filler but it is on evaluation now.

 
that would be an interesting development - I've not seen this in any of the usual sources.  do you have a citation?
On another completely different note, when my daughter was doing maritime shipboard\security she had the utmost respect for the gendarmes on new caledonia, they could always be trusted to deal with idiot passengers in a robust and forthright manner. :)  they did not tolerate dickheads at all.  her stories used to make me feel very warm and fuzzy "inside"

 
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french stratege       4/28/2009 9:42:18 AM
danger to French territory exists in assymetric terms. ....There are restive populations in France itself; and thirdly, it is not impossible to envisage "Fenian" type raids on France from neighboring countries.
Our neighbors are allies and control as well their territory
In France we have the military Gendarmerie with 100 000 men and 50 000 reserve.Plus police, CRS, active army and reserve...not a big issue.And not an army problem first but ministry of interior problem.And an intelligence problem.
 
GF0012
Outre le C-130J, la dernière version du vénérable Hercules, l'armée de l'air étudie également une option pour le C-17A, mais sans enthousiasme. Elle s'intéresse également au C27J Spartan, une version modernisée du C-222 italien.
 
As a gap filler we study purchasing of  C17 OR C130 OR C27 OR (anticipated delivery of some A330 MRTT) to reduce strain on our existing fleet
My favorite solution would be 4 C17 and 4 A330 MRTT dual use transport./tanker to increase also our tanker fleet where we have not enough capacity I think
 
I don't think that Chirac or previous Presidents lack of courage to act
Chirac send troops in Afghanistan or Africa without problems
But France don't want to damage its image of enlightened nation to third world, don' t believe in hot war unless absolutely necessary, and don't want to act as a poodle of USA (or anybody else)
War is risky and even more important costly
We prefer special ops
France is doing a lot of special ops you would never heard in medias including sabotage and assassinations of ennemy soils.
Now it is true that our leadership do sometime big mistakes...
 
 
4 March 2007 in full french presidential election, a french compagny of paratroopers is dropped on Birao with some Mirage in support for CAS to retake town from Rebels
French ambassador said 18 while it was ten time more! LOL
It was diclosed only 3 weeks later in some small articles in french press without mentionning damages
Can you imagine a US paratrooper force dropped in a foreign country supported by USAF without any article in US medias?
France prefer simply act first by proxies or using special ops including special ops to target foreign leadership
 
Rumor (LOL) said that the Italia DC9 crash in june 1980 near Ustica was shoot down by a french Mirage F1 (or F8 Crusader depending versions) fighter which was trying to shoot down Kaddhafi plane which put it self by a desperating manoeuver behind the italian DC9 from Palermo.Sufficiently serious for a Italian judge to open a procedure buried by Italian state.
 

La deposizione del presidente emerito

Strage di Ustica, nuove indagini Sentito Cossiga: un missile francese

 

ROMA - Un testimone eccellente, il presidente emerito della Repubblica Francesco Cossiga, fa riaprire con le sue dichiarazioni l' inchiesta sulla strage di Ustica, l' abbattimento del Dc 9 dell' Itavia in cui morirono 81 persone 28 anni fa. Oltre a Cossiga è stato sentito come teste Giuliano Amato, ai tempi sottosegretario alla presidenza del Consiglio. L' iniziativa è dei pm romani Maria Monteleone e Erminio Amelio. Secondo Cossiga a centrare l' aereo il 27 giugno 1980 sarebbe stato un missile «a risonanza e non ad im
 
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french stratege       4/28/2009 9:58:13 AM
French military strategy is simple
-Deter by nukes
-Provide a air land battle force strong enough to assist an ally (about a mechanized  army corps plus 140 operational and in line modern fighters and support)
-Use naval power to deter or destroy third word navies up to India level
-Use air power to do independant reprisals at the level of El Dorado Canyon operation or much more for exemple (up to 3000 targets for maximum likely) by using our aircraft carrier and air tankers from our oversea bases
-Use special forces and operations to do antileadership or anti assets reprisals (our special forces are 4000) and we take advantage that our governemental process and laws about medias allow that to stay secret or to be minimized
-Use weapon sales to blackmail and shift local equilibrium between local powers
And for the worst
-Have ability to scale up in full conventional war
-Have global ability to do a preemptive nuclear strike on any nation on its leadership, conventional military forces, navy, industry like Chirac mentionned it..
Which country can do that?
US, France, Russia and that's all.
 
 
 
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french stratege       4/28/2009 10:08:56 AM
Our bigger weaknesse is
Use air power to do independant reprisals at the level of El Dorado Canyon operation or much more for exemple (up to 3000 targets for maximum likely) by using our aircraft carrier and air tankers from our oversea bases
 
Indeed it is a capability that I think is not strong enough especially difficult to enforce vs strong regional powers with a strong modern air force with a single carrier not 100% available and 30 to 60 rafales (from oversaes ground bases)  plus AWACs only
It is why we need a second carrier and more air tanker, I think plus more SSN with cruise missiles.
I would like also several french stealth DDX like cruisers able to launch several hundreds of cruises missiles or conventional ballisitic missiles for a strong initial strike
Or SSGN like those of US Ohio class
But of course all those capabilities are the most costly after our 100 % autonomous nuclear deterrent.
 
Our current defense plan is to extend thoses strike capabilities but after 2018 only http://www.strategypage.com/CuteSoft_Client/CuteEditor/Images/emcry.gif" align="absMiddle" border="0" alt="" /> since we have to modernized our current capabilities after a long period of post cold war dividends desastrous for our armed forces by the scale of post cold war reductions.
 
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french stratege       4/28/2009 2:27:01 PM
On a general comment I would add that a good way to evaluate military power are ECM and stockpiles of modern ammunitions
Indeed in all armies military don't like very much to invest in ammunitions since that they are used only into war, have often less than 20 years of life in stockpiles (due to powder stability), cost a part of budget appropriations, or ECM since it is not a visible capability.
So armies invest in the number they can procure or theu think they could use in a real conflict.
For exemple if a country invest into a stockpile of 2000 BVR missiles like AMRAAM, it is because they calculate that they have ability to use it and shoot a number X of targets.If an other country is buying 5 time less missiles even they have half the platforms, it is because they don't think they could use more since they don't have ability to have a low attrition rate to sustain operations.
Moreover  after a dozen of years missile electronic is often outdated and so efficiency is reduced facing jammers.
What is amazing is that Egyptian fired thousands ground to air missiles in Kippour war and only few percents reach their targets thank to US ECM on Israelis planes (and proper tactics due to intelligence and computer simulation).
Considering ECM, only countries which are state of the art (or close) designers and producers have the best ones.Only a dozen countries in the world...including few who have access to best technology like Australia from their allies.
 
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Godofgamblers    FS   4/28/2009 10:05:32 PM
I think you are underestimating the changes taking place in Europe. Although Europe has been the touchstone for stability in the world, i believe this is changing and in 5-10 years time security will become a major issue. Acts of terror across Europe (Spain, UK) and unrest (in Paris) were not one-off events but i think there is every reason to believe that Europe is drifting into uncertainty on many fronts. The looming presence of Russia will not add stability but contribute to creating a pre WW2 atmosphere. I could be wrong, of course, but time will tell.... If things continue the way they are going, the gendarmerie will not be sufficient to deal with the problem.
 
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