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Subject: 1939 the Allies Attack, Knocking Italy out of the War
Godofgamblers    5/15/2007 1:05:38 AM
1939, Hitler's forces ravage Poland while the West looks on... but could it have gone differently? What if the French attacked Italy in the South, pushing through Torino, Milano, Verona and Venice? Italy would have been cut in two, and let's face it, Mussolini would have fallen, maybe even at the hands of his own people.

Faced with this sudden aggressive action by the Allies, Hitler may have thought twice about attacking. With his Southern flank exposed in Austria, most of his armor destroyed in Poland and his forces deployed in the East, he may have given up his plans of war against the West.

The West would be forced to accept the fait accompli on the Eastern Front, and Hitler would not be confident enough to attack the Allies in the west. Logically, he would turn his attentions to the East, namely to the USSR. The West would be happy since they would have averted total war with Germany and they would witness Fascism in a life and death struggle with Communism. They might even have resorted to supplying Germany to tip the balance even more in Germany's favor.

All sides would be happy: Germany would have their Gotterdammerung, the West its security and USSR its confrontation with Fascism.... the only loser would be Italy, the sacrificial lamb.

Your thoughts, Gentlemen?
 
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Rasputin       5/15/2007 5:28:12 AM
Only thing is, by the time the French and British march in their ye olde british WW1 and French snail speed to the front. Even the Italiens would have time to prepare a reception and call for help.



 
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paul1970    timeline...   5/15/2007 5:42:12 AM
Italy didn't enter the war till June 1940....    ie when they already knew that France was finished and Britain in full retreat....
 
neither Britain or France was in any fit state to fight another front of a war considering what they did in the original one between Sept 39 and June 40 so I doubt they would want to open it....
 
also... considering what did happen when the Germans did attack west, I doubt that the allies being spread wider and in less defensive positions would have deterred Hitler from hitting them and would probably led to the same results....
 
 
Paul
 
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Godofgamblers       5/15/2007 6:04:27 AM

 

Italy didn't enter the war till June 1940....    ie when they already knew that France was finished and Britain in full retreat....

 

True, but it was clear that Mussolini would be on Hitler's side. It was a question of WHEN not IF Italy would enter the war. Given this fact, I advocate a pre-emptive strike.

"Germany invaded Poland on September 1, 1939. Following this event, Mussolini would change his mind repeatedly as to whether he intended to enter the war. The British commander in Africa, General Wavell, correctly predicted that Mussolini's pride would ultimately cause him to enter the war. Wavell would compare Mussolini's situation to that of someone at the top of a diving board: "I think he must do something. If he cannot make a graceful dive he will at least have to jump in somehow; he can hardly put on his dressing-gown and walk down the stairs again."

 

neither Britain or France was in any fit state to fight another front of a war considering what they did in the original one between Sept 39 and June 40 so I doubt they would want to open it....

 

I don't agree. Britain and France would have ripped Italy apart in no time and the German army was completely occupied in Poland. (See the thread on the German Invasion of Poland on this board)

 

A war on Italy would have been a route of Italian forces.

 

"Mussolini's Under-Secretary for War Production, Carlo Favagrossa, had estimated that Italy could not possibly be prepared for such a war until at least October 1942. Italy was a minor industrial power (one of the poorest in Europe). One might not consider Italian industry to have equalled more than 15% of that of France or of Britain should one compare the number of automobiles in Italy (~372,000) to those of Britain and France (~2,500,000). The lack of a stronger automotive industry made it difficult for Italy to mechanize its military. Italy had also given tons of weapons and supplies to the Spanish Fascists fighting in the Spanish Civil War of 1936 - 1939.

The Italian Army (Regio Esercito) remained comparatively weak and had suffered while carrying out the April 1939 annexation of Albania. As Bierman and Smith wrote^ , "the Italians were, militarily, barely on the same planet". The Italian tanks were of poor quality. Italian radios were virtually non-existent. Most Italian artillery dated from World War I. The Regia Aeronautica's primary fighter was the Fiat CR-42, a biplane. The Regia Marina had no aircraft carriers. Bierman and Smith state (pages 13 - 14) that the Italian regular army could field only about 200,000 troops at the start of World War II. They estimate the Regia Aeronautica could field approximately 1,760 aircraft, only 900 of them considered as "front-line machines".

also... considering what did happen when the Germans did attack west, I doubt that the allies being spread wider and in less defensive positions would have deterred Hitler from hitting them and would probably led to the same results....

 

True, Paul. But think of it in terms of psychological warfare. 

 

When fighting multiple opponents what is the best strategy?

The best strategy is, I think you'll agree, to take out the leader of the opposing forces in a lighining move, thereby ending the attack. Granted, as you say, the Allies were unable to do this (
France and UK could not take out Nazi Germany).

 

However, the alternate strategy is to take out the weakest link, i.e. Italy.

 

Quickly cleaning Italy's clock, deposing Mussolini and establishing a military occupation of Italy would have made Hitler think twice... even three times.... about the consequences of war. The invasion of France was a massive massive gamble by the Germans. Looking back at the invasion of Poland, we can see how unsure and nervous the Germans were about the success of that operation, even going so far as to enlist Russian aid. Now if Italy had been taken out by the West with lightning speed, I am convinced that Germany would have stepped out of the ring.

 

Thanks, Paul. Waiting for your response.. Your expertise on WWII is always appreciated.

 

 (All quotes from Wikipedia)

 

 

 

 

 

 
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Godofgamblers    Rasputin   5/15/2007 6:08:54 AM

Only thing is, by the time the French and British march in their ye olde british WW1 and French snail speed to the front. Even the Italiens would have time to prepare a reception and call for help.





Hi Rasputin. See the quote on the state of readiness of the Italian army in 1940 in my comments to Paul; also look at their embarrassing campaigns in ALbania and Ethiopia. They wouldn't have stood up long. The big advantage they would have would be geography: that area is extremely mountainous; the Alps and the entire Savoie region are very rugged. But even that wouldn't have staved off defeat.
 
As for calling for help, the French advanced into German territory while the Germans were occupied in Poland. The Germans were unable to mount any defensive action. The French, having a purely defensive strategy against Germany, did not know what to do so retreated back to the Imaginot Line. Why then would the Germans have helped out the Itallians if they couldn't protect their own territory?
 
 
 
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paul1970       5/15/2007 8:49:25 AM
I half agree that taking out Italian forces could be done easily by in the open field... so the British will easily beat them up in Africa as they did...
 
but I wonder whether an attack into Italy itself will work...  it is bad terrain to attack through from the north and easily defended by dug in Italian troops and artillery (which was pretty good for the time)
 
a landing along the Italian coast with combined British/French forces would be hard to organise in the short time available (if possible at all in 39/40) and have the Italian army in defense and the navy to contend with... (and they will fight in defense close to shore with air support and their capital ships are no pushover. eveyone fights harder in defense of the homeland unless their morale has already been destroyed)...
 
 
another factor could be Spain.... if the allies attack Italy because they belive Musselini will join Germany in fascist brotherhood then Spain will be worried that they are next on the list and this could bring them into the war. they are pretty poor but will easily shut down Gibraltor and Med access long enough for the Germans to be back in the west leading to France pulling its troops back onto defensive duties...
 
 
Paul
 
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paul1970    Italian artillery..   5/15/2007 9:07:18 AM
ooopps...
 
ment that it performed better than it would be expected to do even though the vast majority of equipment was old... mountain artillery units would be very useful in defending against a push through the Alps by French forces... Italian mountain troops were one of the better parts of the army.
 
 
Paul
 
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Herald1234    Italy underestimated.   5/15/2007 12:07:29 PM
The change in morale in fighting to save your homeland from French aggression would have made all the difference in Italian fighting spirit. Plus there was nothing wrong with Italian technology, just with the political leadership, resource base, and production base. Corruption at the top meant military disaster as the famous Spaviera/Ansaldo tank program competitions and bribery scandals exhibits.
 
Same for artillerey, uniforms , medical service [logistics] etc. across the board. The fascists mismanaged everything they touched.  
 
Britian and France were unable to mount a division sized operation in Norway. An army-sized amphibious attack in the face of the Regia Marina was insane. Plus you would be facing Smiling Albert and his jolly boys{Veitinghof and company] three years early. Instant recipe' for allied defeat is the result.
 
Herald 
 
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Herald1234    Italy underestimated.   5/15/2007 12:07:32 PM
The change in morale in fighting to save your homeland from French aggression would have made all the difference in Italian fighting spirit. Plus there was nothing wrong with Italian technology, just with the political leadership, resource base, and production base. Corruption at the top meant military disaster as the famous Spaviera/Ansaldo tank program competitions and bribery scandals exhibits.
 
Same for artillerey, uniforms , medical service [logistics] etc. across the board. The fascists mismanaged everything they touched.  
 
Britian and France were unable to mount a division sized operation in Norway. An army-sized amphibious attack in the face of the Regia Marina was insane. Plus you would be facing Smiling Albert and his jolly boys{Veitinghof and company] three years early. Instant recipe' for allied defeat is the result.
 
Herald 
 
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eldnah       5/15/2007 4:39:46 PM
As mentioned above there was no formal German Italian pact in 1939. What you would have had was a French "Aggresor" attacking through and over the French/Italian Alps. At that time French lacked an offensive doctrine comperable to the blitzkreig/combined arms philosophies. Sounds like the upteenth battle of the Isonzo, a good old fashioned WWI bloodletting slog.
I don't believe the 1939 British/French Fleet had the ability to carry a successful exploirive landing on the narrow Italian coast. It would have been more Gallipoli than Anzio and we all know what a triumph the latter was.
 
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Godofgamblers    eldnah   5/15/2007 7:54:47 PM
   Interesting you mention Galipolli. Winston Churchill seemed to favor in his military doctrine attacks in the south of Europe, "the weak underbelly", as he put it. His attack on the Dardanelles and later on in the war in Italy rather than France. As people have noted above, politically an unprovoked attack on Italy would have been a brash move, but I wonder to myself if Winston didn't consider it......
 
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Godofgamblers    open question   5/16/2007 5:08:57 AM
   Tell me then, if the Italians were low on morale, dispirited, supplied with substandard equipment and poorly led by their officers, why is it that they were an extremely effective fighting force under Rommel?
 
A good percentage of Rommel's troops at any given time were Italian and in his letters he had only glowing comments about them. How is it they performed so well under Rommel and yet completely bungled their own operations, i.e. Albania, Greece, Ethiopia?
 
Perhaps Rommel was a case much like Napoleon: under Napoleon even raw conscripts, Poles, managed to beat the best trained and led soldiers in Europe time and time again....Inspired leadership? Or was it something else?
 
You seem to know a great deal about the Italians, Herald. I suspect you have a strong opinion on this matter.
 
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paul1970       5/16/2007 8:17:48 AM

   Tell me then, if the Italians were low on morale, dispirited, supplied with substandard equipment and poorly led by their officers, why is it that they were an extremely effective fighting force under Rommel?

 

A good percentage of Rommel's troops at any given time were Italian and in his letters he had only glowing comments about them. How is it they performed so well under Rommel and yet completely bungled their own operations, i.e. Albania, Greece, Ethiopia?

 

Perhaps Rommel was a case much like Napoleon: under Napoleon even raw conscripts, Poles, managed to beat the best trained and led soldiers in Europe time and time again....Inspired leadership? Or was it something else?

 

You seem to know a great deal about the Italians, Herald. I suspect you have a strong opinion on this matter.


I tend to go with the Italians were better than their oft mentioned early performances showed....  early opperations were pretty bad but then so were early allied opperations...   there is less focus on the later Italian actions (possibly because they were under German command and and in less interesting areas for the average allied military observer).
the attack on France and Africa were carried out with ill equiped and not well trained/motivated forces.... 
as has been pointed out.... Rommel got the Italians to work well even with equipment not up to the allied equivalent. but the Italians also performed better in the Russian campaigns so it was not just Rommel's influence (although Rommel was great)
Rommel also benefitted from the better trained Italian formations (Brescia and Ariete, amongst others, come to mind) coming over and those having a higher proportion of artillery support (vital).
 
 
so I would say that an attack on Italy in Africa would have been a quick victory but an allied attempt to attack Italy mainland would have been an utter disaster which could have led to a worse situation for the allies than actually was in June 40......
 
 
 
Paul
 
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Herald1234       5/16/2007 11:09:35 AM

   Tell me then, if the Italians were low on morale, dispirited, supplied with substandard equipment and poorly led by their officers, why is it that they were an extremely effective fighting force under Rommel?

 

A good percentage of Rommel's troops at any given time were Italian and in his letters he had only glowing comments about them. How is it they performed so well under Rommel and yet completely bungled their own operations, i.e. Albania, Greece, Ethiopia?

 

Perhaps Rommel was a case much like Napoleon: under Napoleon even raw conscripts, Poles, managed to beat the best trained and led soldiers in Europe time and time again....Inspired leadership? Or was it something else?

 

You seem to know a great deal about the Italians, Herald. I suspect you have a strong opinion on this matter.


Paul has covered a lot of the basics GoG.
I would recommend this site for a background on the Italian War in WW II. It naturally emphasizes the North African Campaign, as that is the one the West is familiar with, but the site is still useful for exploring the state of Italian military technology.
 
link
 
In summary you will find that the Italian military was in the process of re-equipping in a cycle they expected to complete by 1943.
 
link
 
That is a Wiki article about the best of the Italian Generals-Giovani Messe. he had to be a good one given the handicaps that Mussollini with which Mussolini saddled him.
 
My own opinion is that the Italian Esercito as well as the Regis Marina were badly POLITICALLY misled and INDUSTRIALLY supported by the corrupt fascists. The professional Italian military for the most part fought extremely well with what they had. The Semovente improvisation that the Italians invented using HESH armed self propelled artillery tro make up for their lack of a true medium tank was brilliant. Italian torpedoes were the best in Europe.
 
Italian antishipping operations conducted by their special naval forces were little short of amazing. Italian air operations in the Mediterranean are underreported for their effectiveness aginst Allied shipping.
 
The myth that the Italians would drop their rifles and run, is based on the same crap stereotype that afflicts the French. The military can only be as good as its training, logistics, doictrine, and ultimately political leadership.
 
Given half a chance at all, the Italian soldier served with distinction, bravery and skill. General Messe gave the Esercito half a chance in Russia and later in North Africa. Those soldiers under his command fought hard and well. So it wasn't the failure of the soldiers or even the generally inferior equipment in the line that ruined Italy. It was as you always find it in these ciercumstances, failure at the TOP. Even Germans [and Americans] lose when you are led by political and military  IDIOTs..  
Herald
 
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Godofgamblers       5/16/2007 7:00:36 PM




   Tell me then, if the Italians were low on morale, dispirited, supplied with substandard equipment and poorly led by their officers, why is it that they were an extremely effective fighting force under Rommel?



 



A good percentage of Rommel's troops at any given time were Italian and in his letters he had only glowing comments about them. How is it they performed so well under Rommel and yet completely bungled their own operations, i.e. Albania, Greece, Ethiopia?



 



Perhaps Rommel was a case much like Napoleon: under Napoleon even raw conscripts, Poles, managed to beat the best trained and led soldiers in Europe time and time again....Inspired leadership? Or was it something else?



 



You seem to know a great deal about the Italians, Herald. I suspect you have a strong opinion on this matter.




I tend to go with the Italians were better than their oft mentioned early performances showed....  early opperations were pretty bad but then so were early allied opperations...   there is less focus on the later Italian actions (possibly because they were under German command and and in less interesting areas for the average allied military observer).

the attack on France and Africa were carried out with ill equiped and not well trained/motivated forces.... 

as has been pointed out.... Rommel got the Italians to work well even with equipment not up to the allied equivalent. but the Italians also performed better in the Russian campaigns so it was not just Rommel's influence (although Rommel was great)

Rommel also benefitted from the better trained Italian formations (Brescia and Ariete, amongst others, come to mind) coming over and those having a higher proportion of artillery support (vital).

 

 

so I would say that an attack on Italy in Africa would have been a quick victory but an allied attempt to attack Italy mainland would have been an utter disaster which could have led to a worse situation for the allies than actually was in June 40......

 

 

 

Paul



Your most probably right on all counts...thanks paul.
 
 
 
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Godofgamblers       5/16/2007 7:05:01 PM
Am checking out those links now, H. Thanks!
 
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