Funny. I could have sworn that someone on these boards recently claimed the Mossad was incompetent. Now their info is legit? I'm confused.

Hahahahahahaha!!! They don't even know how to make a money ATM work in Iraan! Come on, it's nonsense. And even if they could make a bomb they'll never fire it. They're not THAT stupid. Nothing in Iraan works properly.

The problem, Gamerlaan, is that assuming that it won't work is one hell of a chance to take with a nuclear weapon. While I would have trouble supressing laughter if their bomb test fizzles or accidentally annilihates Tehran, we can't bank on that happening.

Its one thing to have a nuke, its almost as good to claim to have one with little or no evidence to prove otherwise. It doesnt matter if it doesnt work, we wont know that for sure. The equation in the ME changes either way. They dont have to use it to reap the benefits. And if they do use it their complete destruction is assured. By the way how long would we have to wait before building strip malls and middle east Disney there?

If you are skilled at reading between the lines of such statements, then you will understand what it is the Israelis are saying : Iran will have a functional, deliverable nuclear weapon in the very near future. I will provide a rationale below, but would like to take this opportunity to recall that I made this very assessment a year ago, and several times since then. Most analysts have been assuming that a date of 'year-end 2007' would be the point at which Iran would have a deliverable nuclear weapon. This was also an Israeli estimate, oft repeated and was again just a couple of weeks ago across many media outlets. The 2007 date would be correct, but only if Iran was doing everything from scratch, and by themselves. Now, notice the language of the statement this thread references - that Iran will have "the knowledge" to build a bomb within six months. Really? What we surely know is that Iran already has the "knowledge" to build a bomb. How do we know this? Because Iran was the primary beneficiary of the AQ Khan nuclear network. Iran's centrifuges are EXACT copies of Pakistan's designs - both first AND second generation machines. We also know that in the package AQ Khan provided client nations was a Chinese nuclear warhead design - an advanced one minituarized enough to be suitable for the missiles both North Korea and Iran possess and continue to design. Therefore, the comment that Iran will soon obtain the "knowledge" to build a bomb is a rubbish statement. Iran already has a step-by-step guide to build a bomb from start to finish. The US is POSITIVE that the "knowledge" was a primary component of the AQ Khan "retail product." So why the statement today? Because this is the beginning of preparing the world for whatever is on the drawing boards for dealing with this crisis. Just because the statement was made by Israel doesn't mean that they hold this view unilaterally. Oh - and a bonus for the US - the Iranians finally made a public, if informal, statement concerning their secret mutual defense agreement with Syria. Nice - especially since French president Chirac declared Syria responsible for the murder of Lebanese politician Hariri - they were close personal friends. Things are looking better for the US - if Iraq drove a wedge between the US and Europe, Iran is sewing them back together. The Europeans are getting nowhere in their talks with Iran. Since Europe has made the Iranians an offer that they economically cannot refuse, but still the Iranians HAVE refused - it is quite clear even to Europe that Iran wants a nuclear weapon. European acquissence is assured when the US acts. It really is quite amazing how the Chinese and Russians, the primary facilitators of the Iranians missile and nuclear programs respectively, have allowed this to happen. They had the US in a box - it could not take military action against Iran without enraging the world to an intolerable degree. Now all that has changed - I guess the whole affair was finally overt to an absurd degree. The burning question I now pose is this: what are the chances of Russia and/or China operating advanced air defense systems for the Iranians in event of an American attack? It's happened to the US before - that is the countermove I would make from their (Sino-Russian) side of the chessboard. You can sure count on the US never to reveal it.

That would depend, Darth. If war occurs, and it's more or less unilateral between the US and Iran/Syria, then the Russians and Chinese would have little to fear, even if the US did reveal it. It would be like Vietnam, where everyone knew that Russian crews were operating SAM batteries and suspected--correctly--that Russian pilots were flying MiGs in combat. The same goes for North Koreans in MiGs and Chinese on battery duty. It stayed quiet because one, Johnson and Nixon stood to gain little from revealing the knowledge, and two, because the world didn't care how many "Yankee Air Pirates" were getting killed, since what they were doing was supposedly "immoral." However, if a war with Iran becomes multilateral--say, with French forces involved, however doubtful that may be--then things change. China wants the EU to drop the weapons ban; having European pilots killed by SAMs or MiGs manned by Chinese could backfire very badly on the PRC. The same goes for Russia, even more so. The world already has Putin under a microscope: he's exhausted a lot of the goodwill and breathing room given him by the Beslan atrocity. Russia could face economic sanctions they literally can't afford, and it would end what little remains of the US-Russia alliance. Russia is always one bad harvest away from famine, and their primary grain supplies lie in the American Midwest. Putin knows very well that hungry Russians have this tendency to overthrow the person in power--and he doesn't have the popularity of a Kerensky or a Gorbachev at the moment. Though I agree that the US would not be likely to reveal Sino-Soviet techs or even pilots (I doubt the latter; the Iranians have pretty decent pilots), the upshot would be that neither the Chinese nor the Russians would be all that ready to admit they're supporting a sponsor of terrorism--not openly, anyway.

The US can't attack Iran as this would only make the Iraqi insurgency worse. Israel can't attack Iran because they would have to overfly Turkey or Iraq to do so. The only potential I see for military strike on nuclear facilities in Iran is the Europeans via Turkey. Turkey might allow it if it guarantees their full membership in the EU. Pretty slim chance given the money certain EU members make from Iran. Iran has a free ride. The west will fund democracy activists inside Iran but change is a slow process, too slow. Iran learned from the worlds response to India and Pakistan's nuclear development. Iran will wait to test till they have enough material to test a large number of bombs using different designs to maximize their chance of success. The west will condemn and penalize but will eventually thaw and "respect" the country as a regional power. I don't see another likely outcome. I hope that I am wrong.

"The US can't attack Iran as this would only make the Iraqi insurgency worse." "Israel can't attack Iran because they would have to overfly Turkey or Iraq to do so." - haha yeahh right. I'm pretty sure these are risks both countries are willing to take to rid Iran of producing nuclear weapons. I find it startling that you cannot see any other options. the europeans launching air strikes? are you kidding me? Here is what will happen. The Europeans will continue to negotiate. Obviously this will lead to nowhere. Then it will go to the security council and sanctions will be placed on Iran. This will probably go nowhere. Then, after all this, air strikes will be launched by the U.S. or Israel (withe the U.S. looking the other way of course).

Sentinel wrote: "Funny. I could have sworn that someone on these boards recently claimed the Mossad was incompetent. Now their info is legit? I'm confused." You sure are confused. I didn't post the article because I was acknowledging the truth of Mossad and Israeli statements... I posted it because this is the rhetoric coming out of Israel. Whether this is Israel's true perception as to when Iran's program will reach the point of no return, I do not know... it might be just their way of increasing pressure on the International community to step up its pressure. Either way, rhetoric is important in diplomacy, and that is why I posted it. Mossad is still very imcompetent in my view. Nothing to be confused about. I hope that is clear enough for you :-) And Mossad's incompetence will be only further highlighted if Isreal bombs Iran... because Iran will go nuclear anyway and make them look like idiots. Then, not only will you have Mullahs will nukes, you'll have mullahs will nukes that want pay back for Israel's attacking their nuclear sites. Wow... sounds like a good idea to bomb them now doesn't it. You can't deny a determined proliferator forever, especially one that can't be taken out with regime change. The Iranian regime isn't going anywhere for many many years... delaying tactics won't work. Even if they do get hit with an airstrike.... soon after ... regardless of what overt facilities are taken out, they will enter into a nuclear stage much like Israel (Ironically). They will have a nuclear ambiguity surrounding them, where no one knows there true capabilities. They could have the bomb anyway 6 months later, maybe a year, who knows. But Iran will won't go public with it; instead they will continue to add to their aresenal secretly, and continue with the normal rhetoric. With Inspectors kicked out after an airstrike, and the residual capability remaining in the country, they will go nuclear anyway. Should the US or Israel get more hostile after this point in their nuclear development, they would most likely do a nuclear test. Then they would enter into the India/ Pakistan stage where they would encounter sanctions. However, these sanctions will be short lived and merely cosmetic, for no one is going to sanction Iran's oil, and that is where the $$$ is at. After about 2 years... the sanctions will become meaningless, and Iran will have evaded the world's rollback attempts. The world will come to grips with a nuclear Iran, and resort to deterrence. Israel will abondon its nuclear ambiguity with full US backing, and therefore will not lose its military aid assistance from Congress. Some nations in the region will scramble to move closer to the US security umbrella, while others will try to avoid antagonizing Iran by moving closer to Iran's positions on certain issues (such as oil pricing and resolution of the desputed Tunb islands and Abu Musa island). The world will see a nuclear Iran in 3 years... regardless of air strikes and sanctions. It has too much money due to high oil prices, and it is too important in the regional and the world economy to shut it out for an extended time period, not to mention that country's around the world would be shooting themselves in the foot by sanctioning Iran's oil... it will only drive already high prices higher. The game was over before we even decided to play ball.... rhetoric and wishful thinking isn't going to stop them.

"rhetoric and wishful thinking isn't going to stop them."- I think it is you who is wishful thinking to believe that Iran will go nuclear within 3 years. The mossad is one of the primary reasons why Israel still exists, and yet you call them incompetent. Many of us on this board see right through your liberal POV. The reality is, (as you will see) that Iran will never go nuclear. I guess I have more faith in the International community than you do. You're claiming that Israel is an apartheid state is an obvious display of your left wing radicalism. Despite what you say, I think deep down you know that the most powerful nation on earth will never allow Iran to go nuclear. You can try and paint as many gloomy scenarios as you want, but the future will prove you wrong.