What kind of attack?? Strategic or full invasion--full invasion USA wins, strategic US may make some gains but Iran doesn't lose much. Plus antagonistic Iran can make life miserable for US troops in Iraq, so far Iran involvement is minimal, and mostly pumped up by Bush admin when really the internal Sunni Shia civil war is on with its own resources. Of course some Sunnis operate out of Syria. But barring Irans nuke program it poses no thrat.

Lets assume America takes the option people say they are planning - full destruction of Irans military might - ships, subs, missiles, etc. and then take the nukes at their leisure.  I believe I read something about plans to take out Irans gasoline refineries as well.

 

So in this scenerio, how much damage will Iran do to the US Navy, perhaps US troops in Iraq, the Gulf, oil, and the world in general during the war and after? Will they risk US reprisials when they (Iran) no longer have a viable military and certainly no nukes?

 

Their missiles can hit all major US bases in the region, plus expect a shower in Israel, and more violence in Iraq. Say for 15 to 60 days then it would tone down and focus in Iraq. There is not much we can do in the end. Irans govt is entrenched and they will be still there after US attack. US ships maybe hit by gfire n run type of torpedoes but nothing significant, a few planes maybe shot down. But its doable.

If it came down to war, the best way we could fight it is target the Iranian leadership--the mullahs and Ahwannajihad--along with key nodes of their nuclear program.  We don't have to destroy all the sites; just the significant ones.  It's good enough to set back their nuke program for another ten years.  If we want to get really tough, we'll target refineries and wreck their economy.

 

$10 gas? Not likely.  The Saudis will be happy to sell us cheap gas while their Persian Shi'a rivals get slapped around.

 

The Iranians would likely launch their IRBMs at targets in Iraq and Israel, which might or might not be intercepted by Patriots and Arrows.  They'll certainly take a shot at the fleet in the Gulf, though I doubt they'd do very much. An invasion of Iraq by the Iranian Army would probably do more to unite Iraq than hanging Saddam did.

 

Neither side has a lot of options, and none of them end in a nice tidy victory for either side.

 

Iran can't project much power beyond the borderline. As long as the west is not stupid enough to occupy Iran (and face a gurilla war against millions of fanantics) there is not much risk to take. Some missiles will be fired on Israel and the pro american gulf states. With no real effekt. Some anti ship missiles at tankers and war ships in the street of hormuz will be fired too. Maybe some mines. But that would be all. Oil will surge for some weeks and then come down. After the nuclear facilties will be lost the iranian president would have had his coming out as Mr. Bigmouth. Maybe the army will take him out. That would mean civil war in Theran. Any iranian action in Irak just would bolster anti iranian feelings in Irak. There is no real argument against air strikes and raids to take out the iranian nuke program. The sunni states would be pleased. Lets wait and see.

Hope it does not happen, but if it does , I'd hope US has good intel on the wherabouts of Iranian owned or operated commercial planes and ships. Iran has a sizable merchant fleet and the scuttling of a tanker in the Suez or Panama Canal would not be good. If the USA targets their oil infrstructure then we can expect Iran to do everything they can at hitting Saudi and UAE marine and oil terminals, desalinization plants, power plants etc. Oil prices would dramatically go up. The price would be pushed up through speculation and insurance rates on oil transport would go up. If Iran facilities are taken out, then we may see a real supply problem as nations use to purchasing Iranian oil will bid up North Sea, Saudi, and Nigerian oil. If Iran gets lucky and damages Ras Tanura then the supply problem will worsen. Chavez is a loose cannon and we would practically be inviting him to step into the mix. Sure we could deal with him but now what was once a region issue is now affecting Far East oil supply, the Gulf, and Venezuela.

 

Even if our SPR is topped up and the military campaign is quick, we will run into oil shortages for months as it would take that long for repairs to be done. $10 a gallon is probably a conservative estimate, since we are dependent on the market to establish price whether it makes sense or not. Not sure how many airlines and trucking companies can survive if their cost of fuel goes up 500%. That dramatic rise in fuel would be felt in other markets since agriculture needs machines to operate and retail depends on cheap intermodal freight.

Iranian EFAs discovered in Iraq. Hercs little pearl of wisdom" A smart man deals with the Middle East as a snakehandler handles his pet cobra, with a stick from a safe distance" But our beloved leader the Prez of USA Bush jr decided to jump into the snakepit. This is the Middle East: Murphy's lae " Everything that can go wrong will go wrong", I just bought a bicycle.

The real Clausewitz said that war is the continuation of policy with other tools. So what would Iran fight for if its nuclear facilities will be gone? Some shots at the US fleet in the gulf maybe (likley without success). Some missiles at Israel and Saudi Arabia that will likley be shot down by Arrow and Patriot missiles. Just do pretend some action for the crowd at home. But with its nuclear facilities destroyed they have nothing to win with violence. Any real war would risk their oil fields and the few refineries they have. Without bread and water and fuel and electricity and with a proven big mouth presidident the revolutionary guards may have to fight the army for power. Most Iranians will be fed up for sure.

And by the way my little sweet lefties. When you say that there are so many iranian  terrorists all over the world hidden in our societies, will you give them nukes to kill million of us? Do you want to risk that just because you like Bush-bashing?

A diplomatic solution may be possible if we give Iran a middle power status in the gulf (got it anyway). We should lift sanctions an redefine what we mean with the word terrorist (todays definition would make the afghan anti soviet freedom fighters terrorists). Any people who attack civilian targets in the west (including Israel) will be considered terrorist and every state supoorting them punished; supporting resistance movements targeting military targets will not be a casus belly if the targets are not on western territory (including Israel). Iran may have civil nuclear energy if they cancel uranium enrichment and the production of plutonium (Russia may deliver nuclear fuel). If the mullahs continue to develop nukes a military solution is the only answer. That means - as a I said - air strikes and raids and no occupation. And there is no real reaction we have to worry about.  Sometimes I believe some critics really want the mullahs to get nukes because of self hate (a basic feeling of lefties and liberals). As long as it goes against the interest of the west it is fine with them. If the mullahs will get nukes and we face a nuclear holocaust they will blame the conservatives to have waged the wrong war for sure. But we and the voters will not forget. And even the MSM will not be able to cover up who really would have been responsible for such a desaster. Same for any nuke attack on the US, Australia or Europe. That will end the political influence of the left for some generations to come. But even that is not worth all the suffering. So face the realiy: Iran must be stopped - if neccessary in a violent way. And that would be in  the interest of the iranians too. Some people may think that any nuclear attack calls for revenge (what would mean genocide on innocent - maybe even critics and enemies of the fundamentalists). Just remember what the lefties/liberals darling Jaques Chirac suggested when he called to razor Theran if a iranian nuke would be fired in anger. The preemption of iranian nukes would prevent genocide either.

I don't think the fears of $10 gas are worth much, either.  The Saudis are driving the price of oil down right now in an effort to sabotage Iranian oil production.  If the Iranians can't get their oil out of the Strait of Hormuz, their economy will collapse long before ours will.

 

Gas would spike, certainly, just because of war fears, but the Sunni states would compensate.  Hugo Chavez might try to help his buddy in Iran, but then again, he might do better to ignore them--for all his rhetoric, I'm sure he has no allergy to American greenbacks.

 

You guys act like the world has unlimited swing capacity to take up slack if Iran production is no longer in world market. Iran produces at around 3.5 to 4 million barrels per day. Even Saudi Arabia can not simply ramp up production and get a miracle extra 4 million barrels per day. If anything the ramp up would put the Saudi's at their max production, not only would price go up , but the knowledge that other oil producers are now at maximum production levels could cause markets to ramp up price even higher.