It will go one of two ways...

 

The sailors will be presented on Iranian TV and declare they were in Iranian waters and Tehran will release them or...

 

Iran will refuse access and it will escalate quickly through diplomatic channels toward a military respone.   RN/USN/RAF/USAF airstrkes are a real possibility.

link this has happended before (2004). One would expect the coalition to be alert for this. Is anyone familiar enough with shipping search activies in the Gulf to know why HMS Cornwall could not give its sailors protection?

Cheers.

What I'm intrigued in is that it was meant to happen as soon as they were finishing up on an inspection of another ship, as if those Iranian vessels were escorting it, just in case certain things were in danger of being discovered.

What I'm intrigued in is that it was meant to happen as soon as they were finishing up on an inspection of another ship, as if those Iranian vessels were escorting it, just in case certain things were in danger of being discovered.

What I'm intrigued in is that it was meant to happen as soon as they were finishing up on an inspection of another ship, as if those Iranian vessels were escorting it, just in case certain things were in danger of being discovered.

What I'm intrigued in is that it was meant to happen as soon as they were finishing up on an inspection of another ship, as if those Iranian vessels were escorting it, just in case certain things were in danger of being discovered.

Oops, seemed like it reposted a few times.

A distraction from Saturday at the UN perhaps? Pathetic, vile terrorists. I'm ready for $500/barrel. Let's get it on!

Who is most likely to know their own GPS coordinates - the British Navy, or the Iranian Navy?  In other words, were the British in Iranian waters?  One would think there would be lots of radar records showing exactly where they were.

 

This isn't the first time Iran has done this and won't be the last.  Must be nice to be British Navy and know your "backup" isn't going to do anything to protect you near the borders.  I'm surprised Bush hasn't had US forces moved to the "border" areas to act as a tripwire. On the other hand - maybe thats why the Brits want the job.

I am not a strong believer in coincidence.  I find it unlikely that a large number of heavily armed Iranian patrol boats would just coincidentally happen to be near a number of lightly armed British marines near a disputed border.  More likely, this was a deliberate Iranian attempt to snatch coalition troops.

 

While in the past Iranians released the Brits after making their point, I don't think it will happen in this case.  It may be an effort  to force a trade for high level Iranians who recently defected.  It may also be an attempt to create leverage building up to international negotiations over sanctions.

 

It won't accomplish either.  These aren't Americans.  It will more likely alienate Europeans who would otherwise be indifferent to Iran's schemes (or merely satisfied with some bribes).

 

Wisdom doesn't seem to be a consideration in Iranian decision making.