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Subject: Iraq is indeed another Vietnam for America
reefdiver    2/24/2007 12:41:08 AM
I'm convinced that Iraq has indeed become America's new "Vietnam". How so? * The US is again fighting an enemy counting more on manipulating the US media in destroying American stamina and morale than in winning battles. They don't win any battles - they just win television sound-bite time. A very small minority has their (horrific) vision and hopes televised. Its once again looking like a good strategy. * The US is fighting a proxy war with a foe being largely funded and provided arms by another country or countries. Such a war has the potential to go on indefinitely ala Vietnam. * A liberal anti-war congress is once again looking to assure that American does not win, but rather decides to give up. They're putting more effort into fighting the President and the military than they're willing to put into fighting the enemy. And the enemy, noticing their actions, will only ratchet up their efforts - killing more Americans and Iraqi's (in ways to attract the most media attention). I believe this last fact is impossible to deny at this point. Congress is directly endangering American soldiers. * Politics are dictating the war, resulting in ROE's dangerous for American soldiers (e.g. the Shia militia's have been largely left alone until recently and will probably never be disarmed and dismantled.) * The US is unwilling to attack the source of the continuing problem at this point - Iran - just as they were for the most part unwilling to directly attack North Vietnam for most of the Vietnam war. * Once again the US may simply pull out - abandoning people the US promised hope to. Its possible another million civilians could be killed - just like in Vietnam (although Saudi-Arabia has promised to intercede if this starts happening - talk about trouble...) Its a proven formula the enemy is using. Its almost guaranteed to work. They know this and have told us so. So I say - quit denying its another Vietnam because it is. I believe the liberal Democrats are trying to do their best to assure it is. They want another Vietnam, its in their power to assure such, and they're going to do it. They'll do anything in their power, at any cost, to attempt to shame Bush and the Republicans. They're determined to see their predictions come true. So please tell me I've got it all wrong...
 
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BadNews       2/24/2007 9:08:35 PM




What really frost me about you guys is that you both fire off statements that the only people that agree with them are the ones who wrote the slogan's you guys use in the DNC like 'Win The Peace" etc.

 

Show me a war where mistakes were not made, and many of them and I will show you a good movie, not reality

 

I suppose that you all want the chamberlaineon theory of warefare to rule.



Bad News,

Actually, my statements are well supported by fact and events.  Feel free to challenge them prima faccia. 

 

Your mistakes argument is both a strawman and a fallacy.  I never stated that a war should be mistake free.  However, planning for the best case scenario as the administration did for winning the peace is a failure to plan.  Oops, forget to seriously consider that an insurgency might develop!

Lastly, your attempt at an appeasement argument is also a strawman. 

 

Hope you had fun beating up strawman.  BTW, your Shrek comment was very original!  It was so creative because no one's ever tried that before.


First, "My Shrek comment" was nothing more than a typo, not an attempt at humor, I can do better than that had that been my intent.
 
 
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shek       2/24/2007 9:14:56 PM
Alright, let's throw some facts out for discussion.
 
Here's what Conrad Crane (he was one of the primary authors for the new joint COIN field manual now in use by the Army and USMC) authored for the Army War College one month prior to OIF kicking off about the Iraqi military and what to do with it:

"http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/display.cfm?pubID=182"

A Force for Unity: Dealing with the Iraqi Military.

While a struggle for power between civilian and military elites would contribute to Iraqi fragmentation, the military can also serve as a unifying force under certain conditions.

In a highly diverse and fragmented society like Iraq, the military (primarily the ground forces) is one of the few national institutions that stresses national unity as an important principle. Conscripts are at least publicly encouraged to rise above parochial loyalties and may be stationed in parts of the country far from their ethnic kinsmen. To tear apart the Army in the war’s aftermath could lead to the destruction of one of the only forces for unity within the society. Breaking up large elements of the army also raises the possibility that demobilized soldiers could affiliate with ethnic or tribal militias.

In addition to this, Cobra II counted on the Iraqi Army to participate in Phase IV in Iraq.  Instead, Bremer disbanded the Army, thereby robbing the ground commander of forces he had planned on having, and he did so without a plan to reintegrate these now unemployed Iraqis into the economy.  Talk about shooting ourselves in the foot!  Furthermore, this was done in a way that dishonored these men, making it more likely for them to join the insurgency, and the IA's replacement organization's acronym in English was Arabic for "fuc!k."  Brilliant!
 
Now, if you want to see how ridiculous the planning figures were for the occupation, you can cruise on over to RAND to see how poor the assumptions were based on what it required in the past:
 
 
Or, if you prefer to keep it simple, you could just go to the COIN 101 book, written by LTC David Galula, who was one of the most successful French commanders in Algeria, 40 years prior to going into Iraq.  It used to be issued to West Point cadets back around the latter part of the Vietnam era.
 
 
For Galula, the COIN force should be 1 soldier per 10 citizens, with a 1:20 being the bare minimum.  With Iraq being over 25 million (I don't have the number of Kurds, but you could eliminate them since there is no insurgency above the green line), you can see that our numbers are quite pale compared with historical requirements.  Even if you only included the segment where an insurgency should have been expected, the Sunni (approx 20% of the population), you still arrive at the conclusion that the administration forced a plan that was grossly short on troops.
 
As for the remark that some of the above was considered, I don't find that conclusion to be credible.  If it wasn't the party line, it was flatly rejected.  The recent article below captures the furor over Shinseki's comments during Congressional testimony and the chilling effect this had on uniformed members and how their professional military advice was valued. 
 

In his prime-time address on Wednesday, even President Bush said the main reason past efforts to stabilize Baghdad had failed was that “there were not enough Iraqi and American troops to secure neighborhoods that had been cleared of terrorists and insurgents.”

The acknowledgment was far different from the harsh administration rebuttals after General Shinseki electrified Washington with his blunt warning that victory in Iraq would require more troops than were being deployed for the invasion.

He was the target of immediate rebuke from the Pentagon leadership, in particular from

 
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shek       2/24/2007 9:16:25 PM
Sorry, here's the link to the article I quoted at the end of my last post. 
 
 
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shek       2/24/2007 9:22:16 PM
The emphasis in the below article is mine.  Oops.  Another predictable mistake pursued nonetheless by the CPA.  What do you expect when you shut down state factories in a command economy? 
 
 
The Surge That Might Work
It would cost $100 million to restart all of Iraq's state companies. That's as much as the military will spend in the next 12 hours.

By Fareed Zakaria
Newsweek

March 5, 2007 issue - We are now fighting a war intelligently in Iraq. The only problem is, it's the last war, not the present one. The United States has gambled all its efforts on a troop surge that tackles the conflict that defined Iraq from 2003 to 2005?the insurgency?rather than the civil war now raging across the country. Worse, in trying to solve yesterday's problem we are exacerbating today's. In Baghdad, Shiite militias have melted away. Almost all U.S. military operations are now directed against Sunni insurgents. If those are successful, the picture could look less violent in six months, but it will be a dangerous stasis. A senior U.S. military officer, who is not allowed to speak on the record on these matters, said to me, "If we continue down the path we're on, the Sunnis in Iraq will throw their lot behind Al Qaeda, and the Sunni majority in the Arab world will believe that we helped in the killing and cleansing of their brethren in Iraq. That's not a good outcome for the security of the American people."

We don't intend to side with anyone. We're trying to be evenhanded and build a single, democratic nation. But this attempt at neutrality is collapsing in Iraq's bloody sectarian reality. Last week's uproar over allegations that Shiite policemen in Baghdad had raped a 20-year-old Sunni woman vividly illustrates how trust between the two communities has been shattered. Shiite Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki first ordered an investigation, then 12 hours later declared the woman a liar, freed and rewarded the alleged rapists and later fired a Sunni official who had called for an unbiased investigation. Meanwhile we're stuck in the middle, promising to uncover the truth while both sides are convinced that we've betrayed them. This is the definition of a no-win strategy.

The United States needs to find fresh approaches that won't feed the sectarian dynamic and will address the needs of ordinary Iraqis, not the political elites who are jockeying for power. Most important, we need to find a strategy whose costs are sustainable. Militarily this means drawing down our forces to around 60,000 troops and concentrating on Al Qaeda in Anbar province. The surge we should be pushing instead is a political one, and even more critically, an economic one.

An economic surge is long overdue. One of the less-remarked-upon blunders of the Coalition Provisional Authority was that?consumed by free-market ideology?it shut down all of Iraq's state-owned enterprises. This crippled the bulk of Iraq's non-oil economy, threw hundreds of thousands of workers into the streets and further alienated the Sunnis, who were the managerial class of the country. The economic effects of this decision have been seismic. For example, Iraq's agricultural productivity has plummeted because fertilizer plants were summarily closed. Unemployment in non-Kurdish Iraq remains close to 50 percent, which helps explain why so many young men are joining gangs, militias and insurgent groups. For the moment at least, democracy in Iraq has sharpened the country's divisions. Capitalism and commerce can make them less relevant. That is the lesson of many conflict-ridden countries from Northern Ireland to Mozambique to Vietnam.

Paul Brinkley, a talented deputy under secretary of Defense, is trying to get the bulk of these state-owned factories up and running. He's already restarted a bus factory in Iskandariyah, south of Baghdad, and the experience has been telling. Hundreds of workers still in the area showed up for work and the machines are now humming busily. There have been no attacks on the factory. "The insurgents attack people working for the police, Army or the Americans. They do not want to alienate locals trying to make ends meet," said one official working on the project.

Of the original 193 state enterprises, 143 could be restarted soon, says Brinkley. Management and workers are desperate to get jobs. The problem is money. Brinkley points out that his next target, a ceramics factory in Ramadi, is only waiting for two generators before it can reopen. They cost $1 million each. But funds for this purpose are hard to find. Washington has pledged more than $18 billion to fund "reconstruction" in Iraq but will not appropriate a cent to start up state-owned Iraqi companies. The Iraqi government has billions in oil revenue of its own but is so dysfunctional that it cann
 
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BadNews    SHEK   2/24/2007 9:23:05 PM
See no TYPO this time....
 
This is very much a rewind of Vietnam, Troops who all the war opposers keep saying are getting srewed are re-enlisting in droves again that tells anyone who has ever served  something and should tell more than it has, largely because the only place that you kind hear that news is from actual DOD reports, definately not the news. Troops who do return are very candid that they dislike the fact that our media focuses on our losses and is not telling what gains are being made and what victories are being attained.
 
The will to fight issue is percarious as well, Yes the Dems swept congress on what apeared to be an anti war vote, but when you look at the election numbers the only big wins came in districts where there was scandal, most races were very very close indicating that there is still a 50 50 mentallity in the States.
 
Further, the polls that are emerging of late indicate 57% of US citizens are against pulling out without somne semblance of victory, not cut and run, not defund.
 
So with that in mind, right now we are very much mirroring Vietnam
 
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reefdiver       2/24/2007 9:45:12 PM



Reefdiver,


Here's where your original points fail.

 

1.  Iran is not the source of problems in Iraq.  They are contributing with some external support, but if you took over Iran today with complete control, you'd still have an insurgency and sectarian strife in Iraq.  For example, the Sunni insurgency that has existed since the very beginning is not a product of Iran.  Sadr from a logistical support standpoint was seeded by Iran (and not in terms of weapon, but in terms of funds for social services to build a base of support), although his following lends very much to his father as a martyr under Saddam and our failures to take on the militia from the beginning.

 

2.  The NLF/PAVN/DRV didn't adopt a media manipulation strategy.  In any event, research has shown that the media as a culprit in the outcome in Vietnam is mostly an urban legend.  The change in press coverage in Vietnam was a result of government officials finally removing the statistical blinders they had and faced what was really going on beneath the statistical veneer.

 

3.  You're confusing ROE with strategy.  The ROE is fine - domestic politics hasn't constrained the strategy of whether or not to take on the militias, and Congress cannot dictate strategy to the CinC.

  I don't entirely disagree.  I do however believe Iran is a major contributor to the problems in Iraq - as are nations like Saudi Arabia. I also think Iran is the nexus of Shia strategy. Iran intends to come out a big winner. I don't think be much doubt they're supporting whoever will make that happen. Heck - the US would do the same - and it did during the Iraq/Iran wars. Additionally Iran has basically been in a low level war with the US for 20+years.
I don't think the media is trying to help the insurgency, nor did it intend to do so in Vietnam. Its simply an inevitable consequence of showing and describing the sensational bombings, death, and mutilation, and continuing bad news that ultimately do wear on the American populace.  Like it or not, simply reporting the news accomplishes this. Terrorists take advantage of this. IIRC AQ  has a media production branch. They want sound-bite time to try to make themselve look more capable than they are. Its psy-ops.  Modern, worldwide immediate communication is both a blessing and a curse.
 
Strategy or ROE - I believe politics has indeed dictated actions detrimental to American soldiers in Iraq as in Vietnam. Why were the militias not disarmed? As mentioned, Sadr for example has caused American deaths and was largely left alone due to Iraqi political considerations. I'm not even suggesting this is unavoidable - just somewhat Vietnam like.
 
One can say the Democratic Congress does support the war, but they're definitely not helping win it.
 
 
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BadNews    You See Shek   2/24/2007 10:33:26 PM
MSNBC reports articles that you quote but never reports on the 1000's of articles like the one below; That is why we are seeing a rehash of Vietnam
 
Nursing course graduates first class Printhttp://www.mnf-iraq.com/images/M_images/printButton.png" align=middle border=0 name=Print>
Friday, 23 February 2007
Story and photo by Staff Sgt. Angela McKinzie
2nd BCT, 10th Mtn. Div. Public Affairs

Graduates of the Preparatory Iraqi Nursing Course take a moment to smile for the camera after receiving their certificates of training at the Civil Military Operations Center at the Victory Base Complex, Feb. 19. There were 18 Iraqi females who graduated from the PINC.http://www.mnf-iraq.com/images/stories/features/2007/February/070223_feat2_med.jpg" width=300 border=0>
Graduates of the Preparatory Iraqi Nursing Course take a moment to smile for the camera after receiving their certificates of training at the Civil Military Operations Center at the Victory Base Complex, Feb. 19. There were 18 Iraqi females who graduated from the PINC.
VICTORY BASE COMPLEX ? Eighteen Iraqi women have successfully graduated from the first Preparatory Iraqi Nursing Course at the Civil Military Operations Center located in the Victory Base Complex in Baghdad, Feb. 19.

“This is a happy day for me,” said Amel Hadi, a PINC graduate. “I always wanted to be able to help people and now I can.”

The six-week course provided lessons in basic health care. PINC Students learned cardiopulmonary resuscitation, wound dressing and care and how to check vital signs. Since most of the women who attended the class have children, family planning and the male and female reproductive system lessons were taught.

“This class is designed to teach basic medical skills, but also to empower the women,” said Air Force Capt. Samantha Elmore, a PINC director and native of Sacramento, Calif. “I hope this class will help them find a job and take care of their families.”

Currently, Iraq is critically short of nurses. Typically, there are four nurses for each doctor; however, Iraq has only one nurse for every 100 doctors.

“We developed the PINC because we wanted to repair the physician structures in Iraq,” said Maj. Darrin Frye, a PINC director and native of West Palm Beach, Fla. “When Saddam was in power, he thought technology could solve medical problems, but when the electricity went out, the patients could not be helped. We want to staff the medical facilities with nurses, so they can treat the patients.”

One of the goals of the class was to reach Iraqi women who live in rural communities and teach them basic nursing skills so they can take care of others.

Although the Iraqi women were afforded an opportunity to learn basic health skills, they struggled with terrorist threats during the course.

“One of our students received death threats,” said Dr. Ahlam Turki, a cultural advisor for the class. “Terrorists told her she would be beaten until she bled and then taken back for her family to see.”

The student who was threatened did not let the threats of terrorists stop her from becoming a nurse.

The class offered many of the students the opportunity of a lifetime.

“This is my first class since middle school,” said Madha Alawi Hussein, a 38-year-old PINC student. “I have never been (afforded) the chance to go to class since I was a girl. I am very happy.”

Graduates of the PINC will have the opportunity to attend advanced nursing classes in the future. More PINC classes will be held at the CMOC, periodically.

 
 

tigertony    shek this is for you!   2/24/2007 11:14:50 PM

Bill Clinton registers for the draft on September 8, 1964, accepting all contractual conditions of registering for the draft. Given Selective Service Number 3 26 46 228.

  • Bill Clinton classified 2-S on November 17, 1964
  • Bill Clinton reclassified 1-A on March 20, 1968
  • Bill Clinton ordered to report for induction on July 28, 1969
  • Bill Clinton dishonors order to report and is not inducted into the military
  • Bill Clinton reclassified 1-D after enlisting in the United States Army Reserves on August 07,1969 under authority of Colonel E. Holmes.
    Clinton signs enlistment papers and takes oath of enlistment
  • Bill Clinton fails to report to his duty station at the University of Arkansas ROTC, September 1969
  • Bill Clinton reclassified 1-A on October 30, 1969, as enlistment with Army Reserves is revoked by Colonel E. Holmes and Clinton now AWOL and subject to arrest under Public Law 90-40 (2)(a) "registrant who has failed to report...remain liable for induction"
  • Bill Clinton's birth date lottery number is 311, drawn December 1, 1969, but anyone who has already been ordered to report for induction, is INELIGIBLE!
  • Bill Clinton runs for Congress (1974), while a fugitive from justice under Public Law 90-40
  • Bill Clinton runs for Arkansas Attorney General (1976), while a fugitive from justice
All these facts come from Freedom of Information requests, public laws, and various books that have been published, and have not been refuted by Clinton.
 
 
  Now this says it all about Mr William Jefferson Clinton!. Yes, a draft dodging commie running from war to "Commander and Chief". Oh, and all this, and still found time for a staff who waits 3 years to inform their own man about our W-88 being stolen by CCP,and leaving behind our nuclear arsenal in a briefcase!. I think i have said all that needs saying under Mr Clinton except "Line him up and give him that blindfold and a last cigar!".
 
 Oh and Shek "How many men did Bush 1 send to Kuwait?" And how long did we take to get them there? Oh, and this is not counting the fact that Haliburton has its own security in force today, and saved the Army and Marines 30 battalions of men not washing latrines!. Or would you like to dispute this fact as well? Sorry [edited by SysOps], but the numbers and timeframe don't match the 2 periods in history!. And i don't need to prove who cost us more in Iraq except 1 line from the 2004 Election "Wrong Place,Wrong Time,Wrong War!!!"     Nuff said!
 
 
                                                                                 tigertony
 
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Panther       2/24/2007 11:17:55 PM
What i think is often overlooked by many of us, is the sheer simplicity in what it takes in defeating us in the realm of the media, an unintentional side effect brought on by ourseleves and only with ourseleves is where this blame lies. Of course mistakes abound in this war... like any other war we have fought, especially on the political level! Then again, what American war hasn't had that, it should be a given when we fight any war; That conspiraciy theories will abound and with the truth forsaken for the sensationalist lie. We are programmed too distrust  everything about ourseleves!
 
It's an established fact that when we fight any wars, that an enemy seeks too sow discord among an enemy populations through the media with their version of propaganda. I do see the effectiveness this has had on our politicians and our youths, and our enemies have picked up on our many misgivings and have applied it to their messages aimed strictly toward us and most especially too the critics whether left or right in politics. i.e. What they had tried before the start of OIF wasn't quite as effective until they have heard the literal tons of criticisms coming from within this country too our real or imagined mistakes and failures in this war!
 
What is a pity, is that i have been hearing it everyday for the past 5 and half year's now, and never thought we would face this extreme level of intellectual dishonesty again since vietnam; And too be quite honest, it is starting too wear me down again in the worst imagineable way (Leaving me too wonder how much longer i can hold on too my humanity in the face of the worst sort of brutality the west hadn't seen this Hitler's concentration camps), i keep hoping for a certain level of honesty on our part amongst ourseleves in prosecuting this war too a victory that would not only secure our safety, but for those who have suffered from the worst brutalities that has been extremely endemic to the middle eastern region for centuries now. We are slowly signing our own death warrants, by forsakening those too a virtual hell that cannot defend themseleves from such violence, but what does it matter, as long as it translate into domestic political victory for any opposition political party! (Whether it democratic or Republican!)
 
Anybody can make fun of and diss reefdiver, but i 'm afraid i'm starting too agree with him on this! We haven't learned anything about perspectives and rationality since vietnam, have we? It seem's we are still binded by the myth of our imperial aspirations! What a pity this is becoming...
 
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BadNews    Ya Know Shek   2/24/2007 11:19:51 PM
Iraqi Army takes reins in Fallujah Printhttp://www.mnf-iraq.com/images/M_images/printButton.png" align=middle border=0 name=Print>
Saturday, 24 February 2007
Soldiers from a platoon of 3rd Battalion, 4th Brigade, 6th Iraqi Army Division,http://www.mnf-iraq.com/images/stories/daily/2007/February/070224_daily_med.jpg" width=330 align=right border=0> FALLUJAH ? The war in Iraq is changing gears and taking a new direction; the battles are now fought by Iraqi forces with Coalition assistance. Coalition forces are working on a daily basis with Iraqi Security Forces on patrols, as well as conducting operations in support of ISF.

The Iraqi Army’s 1st Battalion, 2nd Brigade, 1st Iraqi Army Division, patrolled its area of operation recently to gather intelligence for future operations. The IA was supported by a fire team of Marines from a Military Transition Team during the patrol.

“We did a dismounted patrol and headed south to one of the major roads in Fallujah so the IA could gather intelligence,” said Cpl. Daniel P. Kennedy, a 23-year-old rifleman from Harrison, Mich. “We patrolled down an extremely dangerous street, but I was surprised by how well the (Iraqi) Soldiers patrolled. It is definitely different than patrolling with Marines, but they do a really good job. They are really squared away when they are on patrol.”

The teams charged with assisting the Iraqi Army are Military Transition Teams. A typical patrol for an MiTT team consists of only a fire team of Marines with the rest of the squad comes from the Iraqi Army. The Iraqis lead the patrols and run the show; Marines are only on the patrol to provide additional security and make suggestions for changes during debriefs once the patrol is complete.

“They are much better than I expected. Of course they have things to work on, but they are very good,” said Marine Corps Sgt. James D. Polich, a 37-year-old rifleman from St. Louis. “I think it is very good to get them out there and show their presence.”

The Iraqis are very organized, Kennedy said.  One thing that struck Kennedy was the manner in which the Soldiers utilized intelligence from the field to plan and conduct their operations. Such organization is an essential element to decreasing the role Coalition forces play in the security of the region.

“The more they can get out there the better they will get, so when we eventually leave they can do the best of their abilities,” he added.

Iraqi Soldiers have an advantage over the Marines who assist them on patrols; they know the local customs and speak the language. They have the ability to set the people at ease whose home is being used as an over-watch position, or during snap-vehicle check points. They can communicate exactly what they want the driver and passengers to do.

Many of the Soldiers made a point to speak and shake hands with any citizens who ended up getting caught inside of their patrol to let the people know they are in the city to provide security for the citizens of Fallujah.

They continuously show good intentions for the city of Fallujah and its citizens. The Iraqi Army has at times run into trouble in Fallujah, mostly because Fallujah is a Sunni city while most of the 2nd Brigade Soldiers are Shia and have been viewed as a foreign force.

“The people need to see that the IA are the good guys, and they aren’t here to do bad things. They are here for the betterment of Iraq, not only Fallujah,” Kennedy said.

The IA continues to patrol the streets diligently to improve their skills and rid the city of terrorists. They have also begun to work with the Iraqi Police on various operations, either supporting the police or vice versa.

(U.S. Marine Corps story by Lance Cpl. Stephen McGinnis, Regimental Combat Team 6)

In

 
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