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Subject: The Anbar Offensive Succeeds So Far
SYSOP    7/28/2015 5:18:16 AM
 
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trenchsol    Turkish change of policy   7/28/2015 11:32:07 PM
I have been trying to understand why Turkey suddenly changed its mind and openly turned against IS. Suicide attack that killed 32 people might be related to IS, but I doubt that IS really wanted it to happen, because they had almost friendly relations with Turkey. Looks more like one of the 'lone wolf' bombings, like many others IS related. It is more like a pretext than real reason for new Turkish policy.
 
I have found tiny and scarce bits of information suggesting that it might be a byproduct of Iran Nuclear Treaty. It is possible that there is some sort of power sharing deal, or partitioning deal. Under its terms, moderate Syrian rebels (whatever that means) will turn their guns on Nusra and IS. Turkey is main sponsor of those rebels, and it will support them with airstrikes, along with other nations. It is unclear, but rebels might stop fighting against Syrian regime. That might be a temporary agreement, I don't know. Russia also announced 'grand' coalition against IS, after Iranian nuclear deal was reached.
 
If it is true, than Assad seems to have nine lives, although it appears that he spent some of them so far. If IS and Nusra are going to be dealt with, perhaps those left standing will resume mutual hostilities.
 
 
 
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Docduracoat       7/29/2015 3:02:29 PM
Trench sol, You are way over thinking this. ISIL just kills with no thought to larger strategy. Just look at the Jordanian pilot. Majority of Jordanians agreed with ISIL and supported them. Now after burning a Jordanian pilot alive, the entire country is now against ISIL. These Turkish, Kurdish teenagers were going to help rebuild .Kobani. ISIL is against that so they killed them. No larger strategy ever entered their minds.
 
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Nate Dog    I think its a sham   7/29/2015 7:10:41 PM
I have a feeling this new belligerence towards ISIL is being used by Turkey as a cover for renewed strikes on the PKK Kurds in Northern Iraq.
I think Erdogen thinks theyre too close to getting something akin to a state, and once that happens, Kurdish independence will have the germs it needs to grow into a state spread across Iran, Turkey, Syria and Iraq. 

Had he just sent his jets in and bombed the Kurds, he wouldve been blasted in int Media, instead, he does a few small unrepeated attacks on ISIL, on day one and nothing since, but, Turkey has now spent 5 days in a row heavily attacking PKK positions. They've destoryed the negotiations that were happening, and, no one has said a word about the asshole turks hurting the situation, only, Turkey is now finally attacking ISIL.
 
They're cut from the same repulsive cloth as the Russians. Mind you, US has removed Malaysia from its people trafficking sanctions list. Not that the Malay govt has made a smidge of change as regards its people trafficking issues. Rather, it was in exchange for Malaysia joining US Pac trade agreement. Turns out, we're led by ass holes at least as evil as our opponents.
 
 
 
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trenchsol       7/29/2015 11:54:16 PM
Nate Dog, you might be right. One does not necessarily exclude the other, though. However I am not very sure about might previous post, it is based on very tiny bits of information. Just one observation, bombing does a lot of damage, but wouldn't stop Kurds from  declaring the state. It never stopped IS from declaring a caliphate, either. Boots on the ground are needed, and it is not very likely to happen, although some kind of raids, in and out, are possible.
 
Docduracoat, I understand, but I am not sure about it. IS proved itself capable dealing with others in the region. I doubt it would be possible without some planning.I'd be ready to admire IS if they had not been such bloodthirsty lunatics and if they haven't had such sick ideology. By all means, they achieved a lot with relatively modest assets.
 
 
 
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Nate Dog    Theres a difference   7/30/2015 9:44:41 AM
A caliphate is a vicious wealthy powerful minority ruling a cowed population. Close to a feudal system but older still, and even nastier if thats possible.
The Kurds are building a nation. Its much harder, and its institutions are much more obvious and therefore much easier to destroy. Centres of governance, commerce, education and even military are vulnerable. Without them, nation building evaporates.
 
Its not the same. The turks are doing little to hurt a caliphate, who's vast majority are innocent victims, and lots of hurt to the kurds.

 
 
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joe6pack       7/30/2015 9:49:07 AM
I don't think Doc and Trench views are necessarily one or the other..
 
It's certainly clear that ISIS doesn't exactly have a tightly controlled top down chain of command.. You have a senior leadership that has demonstrated some strategic aptitude and bunch of loosely controlled (if controlled at all..) barbarians that tend to do non strategic things.. like burning Jordanian pilots.. 
 
And concur with Nate.. the Turk and ISIS thing is a sham.. both internationally and as a domestic sop..
 
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trenchsol       7/30/2015 3:03:47 PM
Every time someone mentions caliphate, I can't avoid reminding myself of French-Belgian comics "Iznogoud", HERE. Perhaps the Grand Vezier was the one who ordered the bombing in Turkey, in order to upset the caliph.
 
The comics have been translated to a lot of languages. I wonder if IS guys ever read them. Perhaps they just watched the images. Otherwise, I don't see how they expect to be taken seriously. Or, perhaps, that is why they kill so much, indeed.
 
 
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Nate Dog    ####ing Turks   7/30/2015 9:44:56 PM
 
 
Seriously getting out of hand. US foreign policy is, no offence americans, repulsive these days.
Maybe Regan wasn't a font of wisdom or good sense, but he certainly wasn't a pussy either, and was never afraid to tell an 'ally' to go jump.
WTF is this? The only people in the region worth helping are being turfed out to the wolves.
 
And here i was hoping the west was coming to its senses. Israel, also, is led by a cowardly govt. that hopes to reconcile with with the Turks at some stage, so it too does nothing. Leaving the kurds with no potential help... Poor bastards.
 
 
 
 
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trenchsol       7/31/2015 6:00:52 PM
Moderate Syrian rebels were allied with Nusra until couple of days ago. Now they are fighting again. That supports my earlier post, HERE.
 
If I was US foreign policy adviser these days, I'd probably be fired, because I'd advise exactly the opposite of what is being done.
 
 
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trenchsol       7/31/2015 9:24:04 PM
There is one thing where I agree with US foreign policy. They backed up my country against Slovenia in territorial dispute. It is not just because it is about Croatia, but Slovenian governments have played it much like Merchant of Venice right from the start. It was a foul play even for Middle Eastern standards. If there is anyone interested, I'd supply the details.
 
 
 
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