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Subject: The coming war
Sambation    7/27/2007 6:44:43 AM
It is no great secret that there will likely be a war in one to two months. Reports from the ground-- increased intensiveness of reserve training; new military installations in the north; a reciprocity of posturing with Syria, etc-- all indicate the likelihood. My guess is that, contrary to what the Arab media might espouse, the "involved" Israeli public (politicians, military personnel, soldiers, and informed citizens) are quite optimistic that this war will not be the quagmire that Lebanon II was. I don't see any reason for this view. It is true that the military is better prepared. But the citizenry is not. One centerpiece of Israel's former war/survival strategy was its focus on the homefront. But that is no longer the case. Further, all the "staunch," and "experienced," and "iron-willed," Israeli military men-turned-politicians are not who they once were. Case in point: Ehud Barak: great soldier, crappy leader. Ephraim Sneh: good general, bad strategic thinker (see last week's op-ed in IHT/Haaretz endorsing "bolstering" Fatah). The list goes on (Ariel Sharon; Bibi; Mofaz etc). The war will be serious. At best, though, it's a gearing-up for the Israeli population so it can understand loss, when the real-deal comes. It's a chance for Israel's population centers to get re-acquainted with the political realities of the "Mideast." At worst, it will be Lebanon II on a broader scale, with bigger missiles, and more of them. If you're in Israel, my suggestion is to get dug in. Or get out.
 
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swhitebull       7/27/2007 11:05:00 AM

It is no great secret that there will likely be a war in one to two months. Reports from the ground-- increased intensiveness of reserve training; new military installations in the north; a reciprocity of posturing with Syria, etc-- all indicate the likelihood.

My guess is that, contrary to what the Arab media might espouse, the "involved" Israeli public (politicians, military personnel, soldiers, and informed citizens) are quite optimistic that this war will not be the quagmire that Lebanon II was.

I don't see any reason for this view. It is true that the military is better prepared. But the citizenry is not. One centerpiece of Israel's former war/survival strategy was its focus on the homefront. But that is no longer the case.

Further, all the "staunch," and "experienced," and "iron-willed," Israeli military men-turned-politicians are not who they once were. Case in point: Ehud Barak: great soldier, crappy leader. Ephraim Sneh: good general, bad strategic thinker (see last week's op-ed in IHT/Haaretz endorsing "bolstering" Fatah). The list goes on (Ariel Sharon; Bibi; Mofaz etc).

The war will be serious. At best, though, it's a gearing-up for the Israeli population so it can understand loss, when the real-deal comes. It's a chance for Israel's population centers to get re-acquainted with the political realities of the "Mideast."
Unless I'm mistaken - and rarely am in cases like this - it sounds like you are looking forward to that "political reality". Please correct me if I'm wrong in interpreting your advice.

swhitebull
 
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Ezekiel       7/27/2007 12:34:26 PM
This will be a very different war then Lebanon II, in style and scope. Once again the arabs believe they have more to gain going to war with israel then being at peace.

There is no question that a war is coming in the next year. Tel aviv will take rockets in the coming war.... the main question is not hezbullah but how it will counter the Iran-syria front.



 
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Sambation    One of those rare cases   7/27/2007 12:38:54 PM

No: you are wrong. I have no desire to see war in Israel. The only thing I've implied (though it seems the implication was garbled) is that the majority of the Israeli polity seems (on the basis of their voting and the policies that they support) to have a severe disconnect from that political reality. What is the political reality? That the majority of peace overtures and rhetoric from the 'other side' (pan-Arabia) are political maneuvers designed to advance the  Arab military stance viz a vis Israel. When the Palestinians openly declare a hudna for the purpose of rearming the Israelis see a "temporary peace." When Egypt cools off while it builds its arsenals and increases Muslim Brotherhood's stranglehold on the country, Israelis see "another example of how concessions and land-for-peace pay off." When the Saudis, who won't let a Jew into their country, propose an "unbiased peace initiative" the Israelis see another opportunity to extend their hand while the Saudi's load their weapons.

What I'm looking forward to is an Israel that is responsible enough, confident enough, and democratic enough to act like a sovereign country ought to act. An Israel that can show the world how in the face of hostility it has the political sophistication and ideological strength to act correctly, even if that does mean war.
 
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swhitebull       7/27/2007 1:51:28 PM
I stand corrected - we are in agreement.
 
 
 
 
swhitebull - nuance and the internet do not go hand-in-hand
 
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battar    Junior school for generals   7/27/2007 4:11:07 PM
The first lesson a soldier learns about warfare is that you do not initiate an action/war without a clear, realistic  objective.When that objective is achieved, the war is over and you can go home. We all know that George Bush, Ehud Olmert, and a lot of other idiots have yet to learn this lesson, but before someone tells me when the next war is scheduled, can they please tell me a) Who will initiate it b)what are the objectives c)how or by whom will it be financed ?
Now that Mr Peretz (AKA Bozo the clown) is not the defence minister of Israel it stands to reason that the IDF can't make such a complete mess as they did in the last round, but with everyone under investigation over the previous years' failure I don't see anyone with the spine to take any kind of initiative.
 
 
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EssexBoy    Forthcoming war?   7/27/2007 5:40:44 PM
Please excuse my ignorance (I'm a UK poster and this is the first I have heard about a war being iminent) but when is this war expected to take place, who will be involved and what will be their objectives? I can't believe Syria wants another beating so I'm guessing this will be Israel V Hezbollah.
 
Essex
 
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Sambation    War details   7/29/2007 4:31:46 PM

Well, it seems you've made the fatal assumption: that Syria does not want war. This does not mean that Syria does want war; it means that Syria is willing to wage war and is preparing to wage war. As far as I know, Syrian elements are preparing for a late-August/September engagement. They are looking to emulate Hizbollah's low-level terror attacks in order to provoke Israel into a larger conflict. (All this, by the way, is in the news; I have no secret information on this topic.)

As was mentioned above, Syria knows better than going into war willy-nilly, for the sake of it (it learned that lesson a number of times from Israel). It has that necessary clear objective: reacquiring the Golan, which Israel won in the defensive war of 1967.

There are Syrian elements within Israel's borders who are coordinating with Syrian counterparts to heat things up.

The Syrians, like Hizbollah, have become quite savvy about Israeli politics, and this is probably one of the reasons why they seek to engage Israel. They have seen a pattern: prolonged low-level attacks by Arab governments and terror org.s have led directly to Israeli concessions: Gaza, Lebanon (2000 and 2006), even Egypt, in a way. They have seen that every time an Arab element puts pressure for a concession by using terror or attack, the land (or whatever else) in question is immediately put on the negotiating table by the Israel government while the polity whistles.

In this case, the Golan has been out of the public's mind for some time, except as a pretty (if mine-strewn) vacation spot. Syrians want to put it back on the table. Thus the war.

Of course, with anything this complicated (and things much less complicated) things can change very quickly. The Syrians have been trying to pressure the US to pressure the Israelis (usually works) to start talking about the Golan (about returning it, not just about how nice the hills and trees are). After the Israeli public was attacked unprovoked by one northern neighbor, it is not really eager to start making nice with another. Especially since the real cause of that attack was that second neighbor.

The real question in this little pre-war roundup is how far will Syria go, if it decides to engage? Will its own military attack Israeli civilians or will it leave it to proxies? Will a loss destabilize the Ba'ath party? Will Syria go non-conventional?

And, of course, the Israeli questions-- Will Israel respond in kind, and let go of throwaway pity terms such as "disproportionate attack"? Will Israel go non-conventional if Syria does? Will Israel cave and hack off another bit of territory despite its military superiority? Will it stomach significant loss?

Of course, the Europeans -- who see Israel as the eldest and biggest of a bunch of squabbling siblings that Britain fathered with France-- will want to pull the two sides apart and kiss the Arab boo-boo and send Israel to the corner (of the UN). But that's a whole 'nother story.
 
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Sambation    Uh. Oh.   7/31/2007 1:46:09 PM

WND article:

Israeli security officials state the population is ill-prepared for the event of a non-conventional war.

The U.S. has accused Syria of producing significant quantities of chemical and biological weapons.

According to statistics, only half of Israelis possess gas masks, and of those who do, many gas mask kits are thought to be out of date.

Olmert's office has allocated only about $24,000 to the Israeli Home Front Command for the acquisition of gas warfare protection kits.

Israelis never miss an opportunity to create an opportunity for their enemies. (I think that's how the old adage runs.)


 
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Sambation    See Syria Run.   8/1/2007 4:09:01 AM
See the US chase it. Watch the US try to pre-de-escalate the situation to garner support from Arab states for its flagging (failing, falling, flailing, frantic, frenetic) war in Iraq.

Apparently George Bush has read the bible: using Israel as a sacrificial child to prove his worthiness is such a good idea !(Not.) So, W. does talk to a Higher Power. The only problem is that this makes the Arab states God. And while Saudi Arabia is certainly good at creating stuff (oh wait, it's not), it doesn't seem like that Divine State is really going help to POTUS sort out the mess. Actually, more likely--more concretely-- the opposite.

So, the US sweetly nudges Syria, whose "stance [is] that Washington is behind instability in the Middle East," to get to this conference so that everyone can watch the US strongarm Israel into "final status talks" with the PA ("which is who?", you might ask at this point).

Olmert gets his toes on the imaginary line and starts speaking about things so that they will become true: "
"I believe, in all my heart, that this summer and the fall will not be too hot." Oh, all his heart? Wow. Well, I hope his heart has a better military intelligence service than the IDF, which is predicting that this will be one of the 'hottest' summers on record.

And then, in a weird twist, we get some truth from a dubious Syrian official: 'A country that "wants to make peace [between two sides] does not arm the sides with weapons,"' says Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal Migdad. Ok, now we're getting somewhere.

My bet: the Syrians get hysterically bent out of shape over some minor detail at the conference and use it as a pretense to leave the conference mighty unhappily. (Unless Israel offers to sell-- that is, give them the family farm (up in the Golan).) Then, Syria uses the failed conference to tout to the West its "peace attempts" and to show the Arab world how devilish is the White man. Then, barring further delay, they continue with the plans to start low level attacks on northern Israeli (Jewish) communities.

See Syria attack.
 
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Sambation    The beginning?   9/8/2007 4:50:18 PM
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1188392565584&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

Something brewing -- the beginning of the much anticipated "summer/fall war" or just the compulsory, empty Arab rhetoric?


 
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