Military History | How To Make War | Wars Around the World Rules of Use How to Behave on an Internet Forum
Israel Discussion Board
   Return to Topic Page
Subject: Accidental Overflight? or Testing the Defenses
swhitebull    9/7/2007 12:14:36 PM
http://debka.com/article.php?aid=1301 swhitebull - take with a grain of salt since it's Debka, but politically and strategically, this makes sense.
 
Quote    Reply

Show Only Poster Name and Title     Newest to Oldest
Pages: 1 2 3 4   NEXT
Sambation       9/7/2007 1:14:45 PM

It does make sense. Especially considering the alternative, floating in the media, that the planes got there "in error." The choice between testing defenses or pilots of one of the world's best air forces can't figure out where Syrian air space is? I'd go with the former. And Israel conspicuously not initiating its automatic apology protocol....
 
Quote    Reply

YelliChink       9/7/2007 1:31:35 PM
The first time I heard of the Syrian claim, I thought that it was bogus. They want to raise the issue of Golan Heights by sabre rattling.
 
Though IAF is sure very interested in how Pantsyr S1E works, that kind of action for SIGINT is unlikely to be granted. It's better to get Russian documents via HUMINT.
 
Quote    Reply

Shirrush    Not clear   9/7/2007 3:39:10 PM
The silence of the IDF and of the government about this event is beginning to anger everybody here in Israel, including yours truly. A scoffing denial, hinting that the clueless Syrians were probably wasting expensive AA ordnance on planet Venus, swamp gas, or UFOs, would have been more than appropriate. Indeed, the Syrians have failed so far to prove that Thursday night's "contacts" were Israeli fighters, or to come out with any picture of these jettisoned fuel tanks or alleged ammunition.

The incident occurred above the  farthest corner of Syria, in an area where TAF and USAF flights are a lot more likely to overshoot their turf, than IDF planes. It is, however, one of the possible routes of ingress for Iran-bound Israeli strike packages, and it is likely that the  IDF was indeed checking out the path. If this is the case, I guess these planes came home with a nice booty of recorded ELINT.


 
Quote    Reply

displacedjim    Clearly Not   9/7/2007 8:22:46 PM
 
As usual, DEBKA is for crap.  Shame on you SWB, for repeating it!  ;-)   
 
1) Syria doesn't have any PANTsIR yet, and may not ever. Not 10 batteries, not one. It therefore goes without saying that Iran doesn't have any yet, if ever, either. We still need to wait and see some confirmation, *any* confirmation of PANTsIR deliveries. 
 
2) While I doubt the fire control radar for the PANTsIR is anything earth-shaking in its capability, the Israeli jets certainly would not face any threat from them if they chose to not to, since all they'd need to do is stay above 20,000ft to 30,000ft and stay more than several miles away from the launchers, and they'd be out of range. PANTsIR is a low-to-mid altitude, short-range system. Roughly speaking, if you're more than five to maybe ten miles away and five miles up, you're safe, give or take a bit. The only time any jet is likely to be threatened by a PANTsIR is when the jet is attacking the target the PANTsIR is actually defending, as opposed to merely overflying that area while on its way to strike someplace else. 
 
3) It's debatable how the PANTsIR would be deployed and subordinated even if Syria does get them, but it's highly unlikely they'd be deployed at the forward edge of the battlespace as DEBKA claims (I note they claim a location at the Syria/Jordan/Israel juncture, but Shirrush apparently is referring to someplace much different [the Syria/Turkey border?]—where did this alleged incident supposedly take place?). They are far more likely to be ringed around strategic targets like President Assad's palaces, other national command and control facilities, NBC storage and production facilities, and ballistic missile storage facilities. None of those are anywhere near the front lines—with the possible exception of Assad's Latakia residence which is near the coast. Furthermore, even if they just got some PANTsIR they are unlikely to be the systems turned on in reaction to a threat at this point, when they supposedly only arrived in-country a few weeks ago. Of all of Syria's SAM systems, PANTsIR is among the least likely to be used to counter Israeli border violators.   If Israeli jets crossed the border, the Syrians would eventually start lighting up the SA-2/3/5 battalions in the area since those are strategic SAMs integrated into their IADS. It's also possible they might throw in some SA-6 and maybe some SA-8 for good measure, even though these systems (at least during wartime) are traditionally used for tactical air defense. Of course the speed and amount of their reaction depends on the level of threat and how awake their air defense operators and battle managers are that day. 
 
These paragraphs below are just absurd. Once again, I can not fathom why anyone would even bother to read anything from DEBKA. They are the National Enquirer of defense "news" sources. 
 
   "The purported Israeli air force flights over the Pantsyr-S1E site established that the new Russian missiles, activated for the first time in the Middle East, are effective and dangerous but can be disarmed. Western military sources attribute to those Israeli or other air force planes superior electronics for jamming the Russian missile systems, but stress nonetheless that they were extremely lucky to get away unharmed, or at worst, with damage minor enough for a safe return to base. 
   "The courage, daring and operational skills of the air crews must have been exceptional. They would have needed to spend enough time in hostile Syrian air space to execute several passes at varying altitudes under fire in order to test the Pantsyr-S1E responses. Their success demonstrated to Damascus and Tehran that their expensive new Russian anti-air system leaves them vulnerable." 
 
 
 
Quote    Reply

swhitebull    Now Now DJ   9/7/2007 9:07:59 PM
Remember, I said take Debka with a grain of salt - and I concentrate more on the politics of this, not so much the military aspects, but to the extent that they affect the international situation.  So take that!! Regionally, even though they have a right-wing agenda, they ARE very attuned to the politics of the region, and have more credibility along those lines. Also, they DID call the Iraqi Sunni insurgency movement, well before we even invaded, attributing its organization and operations to Uday, Qusay and Chemical Ali. I can find the link on that one, if you desire.  
 
 
swhitebull
 
Quote    Reply

jastayme3       9/8/2007 5:17:06 AM
There's no particular reason that the "world's best air-force"(actually that would be us-Israel is the second best air force)cannot make navigational errors. But it does make sense that such might happen either as a test or as a threat. On the other hand things are quiet in the immiediate present and the most dire predictions are focused months in advance. One thing though would they really announce that they missed falsely? When Arabs lie it is not usually in the direction of humility.
 
Quote    Reply

Ya222       9/9/2007 9:17:44 PM
navigation errors like this can't probably happen cause there are too many people watching the jets' locations..

There's no particular reason that the "world's best air-force"(actually that would be us-Israel is the second best air force)cannot make navigational errors. But it does make sense
that such might happen either as a test or as a threat. On the other hand things are quiet in the immiediate present and the most dire predictions are focused months in advance.
One thing though would they really announce that they missed falsely? When Arabs lie it is not usually in the direction of humility.


 
Quote    Reply

Shirrush    Osirak revisited?   9/10/2007 3:22:51 PM
The loud rumor about what really happened Thursday night in the skies of north Syria is augmented by the latest analysis of Jean Tsadik of menapress.com (sorry folks, it's the French-speaking website of the Metula News Agency), which is based on deductions but goes a long way toward an explanation of Olmert and Barak's smug smiles and refusal to comment, except for a passing praise of the courage and the dedication of our warriors. BTW, debka.com has gone AWOL for the duration of the High Holidays, or so they say, so Metula got the scoop...

According to these rumors/corridor whispers/deductions, there has been a large-scale air strike on Syria's WMD and ballistic missiles installations, which have been destroyed with no Israeli losses. For obvious reasons, the Syrian regime is not admitting it has been defanged, Israel and the Pentagon are denying that an offensive initiative has been taken, and the Russians have an interest in keeping silent on the fact that their latest AA systems have been proven useless.

The bottom line is that, without his Scuds, Assad can't go to war. Not this summer, not in November, maybe not even next year. That itself is worth an extra dollop of honey on the New Year's apple. Happy new Jewish Year to you all. Shana tova lekulchem!


 
Quote    Reply

swhitebull    Merci beaucoup, Shirrush   9/10/2007 3:47:28 PM

The loud rumor about what really happened Thursday night in the skies of north Syria is augmented by the latest analysis of Jean Tsadik of menapress.com (sorry folks, it's the French-speaking website of the Metula News Agency), which is based on deductions but goes a long way toward an explanation of Olmert and Barak's smug smiles and refusal to comment, except for a passing praise of the courage and the dedication of our warriors. BTW, debka.com has gone AWOL for the duration of the High Holidays, or so they say, so Metula got the scoop...

According to these rumors/corridor whispers/deductions, there has been a large-scale air strike on Syria's WMD and ballistic missiles installations, which have been destroyed with no Israeli losses. For obvious reasons, the Syrian regime is not admitting it has been defanged, Israel and the Pentagon are denying that an offensive initiative has been taken, and the Russians have an interest in keeping silent on the fact that their latest AA systems have been proven useless.

The bottom line is that, without his Scuds, Assad can't go to war. Not this summer, not in November, maybe not even next year. That itself is worth an extra dollop of honey on the New Year's apple. Happy new Jewish Year to you all. Shana tova lekulchem!



Here is the French article from , wiith full accreditation to them:
 
Aussi fort que la destruction d’Osirak (info # 011009/7)
Par Jean Tsadik
assadhttp://menapress.com/images/topics/assad.jpg" align=right vspace=10 border=0>
© Metula News Agency




Alors voilà, mercredi dernier, les chasseurs-bombardiers du Hei’l Avir ne se sont pas contentés de survoler le territoire de Béchar Al Assad...