sorry, here is a working link to the Jerusalem Post Article:

 

 XXXttp://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull&cid=1226404751066

It would take me about 2 weeks work to devise a system that could outwit such a project. The trick is to fit each warhead with a beacon producing a signal which overrides the infra-red signature of the true warhead. You would also pack a little radio-active material in the decoys, and make sure each one has a unique trajectory and temperature, making it impossible to track the "odd man out".

The USA have been there before with the Theater high altitude defense system, it has been proven vulnerable to decoys.

It is also highly prone to "false negatives". What if you are only 96% sure the target is a decoy? Do you refrain from launching and risk a 1:25 chance that it is the real thing?

Not exactly:

 

Making things more difficult and causing the opponent to divert rescources to making decoys instead of warhead carrying missiles can be reason enough for having the system in place.

 

The idea of multiple warheads in a single launch vehicle is not new. It dates from the 60's and the Russain ballistic missiles. In the original versions, none of the warheads were decoys - they all contained nuclear weapons.

 

Generally, if you know what the enemy is using, you can find a way to counter it, be you either attacker or defender. Countersystems work only up to the point when the other side as figured them out. Designing a decoy is usually far simpler and cheaper than designing weapons - in the first Gulf war, he Iraqis used barrels of burning oil as decoys to mislead infra-red anti-tank missiles. You don't actually have to draw the weapon to the decoy - you usually only have to make it "break lock" momentarily with the real target. By the time it re-acquires it, it can be too late.

Herald

erald, what you can do, and what we all do, is to assume that the enemy buys his waepons from the local neighbourhood Russian-speaking arms merchant, and devise weapons to counter the toys in his catalog. The enemy, as you say, isn't good enough to make local modifications, and the manufacturers aren't offering seminars and training courses in missile technology.

But what if someone gets smart?

 

Most electronic countermeasures I've had lunch with are designed to counter specific radars/weapons. If he enemy modified his transmitter, we would have to re-write our own software too, or else nothing happens. Most modern warships have nothing that can counter a WW2 naval radar - simply on the assumption that these no longer exist.

My own current headache is certain Chinese speakers.