There is little doubt in my mind that the next Israeli war will be over who controls the gas deposits off the coast; the only real question is whether Turkey, and/or Egypt will get involved as they have the only real naval component to counter Israel.  Either way, a war that will likely be fought within the Israeli air-umbrella will have the same result in that a lot of Turkish and Egyptian warships and subs will be littering the bottom of the Med, because Egypt is too corrupt to field a good force, and Turkey doesn't have the ability to adequately cover their surface units with air power of their own.  I don't know about Egypt, because there is a possibility that the military will just ignore a call to arms by the same government that wants them gone, but Turkey does have a lot to lose and almost nothing to gain by sticking up for Palestinian Terrorists.  If Turkey is wise, they will make a point of leaving their phone off the hook when Hezbollah and Hamas call for aid.

Wisest thing I have seen on this board in years. What chance, d'ya think, of Turkey following your advice? With the new Turkish gov't that seems hellbent on going the way of Islamic fundamentalism?

Wisest thing I have seen on this board in years. What chance, d'ya think, of Turkey following your advice? With the new Turkish gov't that seems hellbent on going the way of Islamic fundamentalism?A few years ago I would have said no way, but the Islamist government has been pretty active in quashing their officer corp., for precisely this sort of situation because the military is the only buffer between Turkey staying pro-western and sane or turning into an islamo-fascist wackaloon dictatorship.  The odds still favor sane, but if this gas field is a big as they say, wacky might win out.  That said, if there was an Israel/Turkey war, Turkey would lose BIG: so big that the current government would be fools to pursue such a conflict recklessly as they would fall hard like Argentina's government did after losing the Falklands war.  The problem for Turkey is the war would not be fought on or near their own territory, so Israel gets home-field advantage. (Israel has little need to attack Turkey, unless it was a decapitation strike and Turkey could not stop such an attack.) If Turkey were to try a strictly naval/air campaign, the Israelis would likely take them out almost as fast as they got there, and if they tried a land campaign through Lebanon or the Sinai, it would be a logistical nightmare that would see transports being knocked out or supplies regularly stolen by their "allies" who would fully expect the Turks to do the heavy lifting while the Arabs watch from the sidelines, waiting for their chance to loot the bodies.  As far as Israel strategy is concerned, I would (If I were them) send a friendly letter reminding the Turks that they have an "occupation problem" of their own: one that has a lot more legitimacy too as Kurdistan, unlike Palestine, was a real country as recently as the end of WWI.  Included in the reminder would be a promise that the Kurdish rebels would get a LOT of support and arms and training on how to use them.  Turkey cannot afford this, no way, no how.  As tough as they are, a Kurdish uprising would hurt Turkey for the next decade or more, and possibly remind the rest of the world that "occupation" of muslim land isn't just a Jewish thing.  Israel could also threaten to form an alliance with cash-starved Greece who would be more than happy to have a force like the Israelis at their back to support their own claims on the gas fields, possibly offering air and naval bases on Cyprus in exchange for protection, completely cutting off the Turkish supply lines to the Middle East and forcing a large part of their military on the defensive. If played discretely and in a firm but friendly way, Israel might be able to avoid a war with Turkey, at least directly, because any war with Israel would likely be a classic no-win scenario for the Turks.

There is a big difference between being a defender of a NATO partner and an unpaid mercenary for a NATO partner's conquests.  Remember that Greece is also a NATO partner, and NATO did not dash in to defend Greece militarily when Turkey invaded Cyprus in 1974.  If Israel were to make some sort of strike on Turkey, I doubt seriously that it would be preemptive, because that would be stupid and counter-productive.  However, if a war did break out, and Israel decided to hit Turkey itself to remind the Turks that their home territory is vulnerable, (Such as mining Turkish harbors or hitting Turkish infrastructure.) the odds of NATO getting into an actual shooting war against Israel is almost nil, particularly if Turkey is the aggressor.  Economic sanctions against Israel are possible, but with the U.S. on the security council, even that would also be unlikely, so NATO would not be involved as anything more as what they usually are... peacekeepers.

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