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Kurdish War Discussion Board
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Subject: Biggest cost to Turkey of invading
    6/13/2004 10:39:29 AM
The biggest cost to Turkey of invading northern Iraq, in response to a Kurdish secession from Iraq, would be the sinking of Turkey's hopes of joining the European Union.
 
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ilpars    RE:Biggest cost to Turkey of invading   6/13/2004 11:15:36 AM
Even if it is true; if you think that this will stop Turkey, you do not know how the international stuff works. When once Turkey declared that an independent Kurdish stae in North Iraq is a Casus Belli; there is no turning back. You do not think that any strong state in this world would let an enemy new state to be founded across his borders, do you? By the way, why are you nameless?
 
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919    RE:Biggest cost to Turkey of invading   7/11/2004 12:00:05 AM
There is no realistic hope of Turkey joining the EU. France will not allow it. It would destroy what relationship there is left with America. It would also produce a lot of dead Turks. Turks are tough, but they just don't have the logistics or the technology to stand up against American troops. BTW, Which side would NATO support? IIRC, NATO supported Greece during the Cyprus affair. The smartest thing for Turkey to do would be to chip in a little land and encourage the Kurds to go after part of Iran. That would really get things stirred up.
 
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ilpars    RE:Biggest cost to Turkey of invading - 919   7/11/2004 5:34:40 AM
France do not care about Kurds. Nations do have interests not friends. For now it is not in France's interest for Turkey's entrance to EU. It might change in the future. It is not about anything else. Turkey is an ally of America. Kurds are a group they are supporting at Iraq. There is a huge differance. USA will never trade of his alliance with Turkey for a weak unpredictable local power. USA already announced that they are against an independent Kurdish state at North Iraq. Turkey has already done the smartest thing. A declaration of a casus belli for an independent North Iraq state had ended this nonsense braintinkering in international circles.
 
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jastayme3    RE:Biggest cost to Turkey of invading - 919   7/24/2004 1:12:28 PM
The biggest cost to Turkey in invading is not at the EU-Turkey did without the EU for a long time. The biggest cost is the "jurisdictional problem" of coliding with an allies "project". The present government in Iraq might conceivably work; in any case it should at least work for a few years. Therefore there is every reason for Turkey to remain quiet for the present. It keeps an allies favor, it allows a project to continue that will be in Turkey's interest if it succeeds. It will be in Turkey's interest because it will hopefully emplace on Turkey's border a government that is reasonably friendly(despite obligatory UN rants), and reasonably orderly. If the project doen't work Turkey will still have had a rest.
 
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