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Subject: Does USA have the capability to invade Syria?
Roman    4/25/2004 2:27:30 PM
Well, the answer to that question is: of course it does. Perhaps a better question would be whether the US has this capability while continuing to occupy Iraq. Bear in mind that Syria would likely use chemical and biological weapons. If you want a scenario - let us say that the US acquires definite proof that Syria took and hid Saddam Hussein's WMD.
 
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Roman    Syrian Order of Battle   4/25/2004 2:30:22 PM
Originally posted by Nasty German Idiot: "3 Corps Headquarters 7 Armored Divisions 1 Republican Guard Division 1 Special Forces Division 4 Independent infantry brigades 1 border guard brigade there are also 2 independent artillery brigades 2 independent anti-tank brigades 1 independent tank regiment 10 independent special forces regiments 3 surface to surface missile brigades 1 coast defense missle brigade Armored Division: 300 T62/T72 main battle tanks 300 BMP armored infantry fighting vehicles 50 BRDM armored reconnaissance 30 122mm 21 selfpropelled artillery 30 23mm ZSU-23-4 20 122mm BM21 Rocket launchers Mechnized Division 200 T55/T62/T72 250 BMP 250 BTR151/BTR60 APC 50 BRDM 30 122mm 2S1 30 23mm ZSU 20 122 mm BM21 Republican Guard Division 350 T62/T72 MBT 350 BMP2-3 350 BTR60/70 50 BRDM-2 30 122mm 2S1 and 20 152mm 2S3 50 23mm ZSU-23-4 30 122mm BM21 Overview over infantry small arms: 9mm PM/APS automatic pistols 7.62mm AK-AKM/AKSM 5,45mm AK74/AKS74 7,62mm RPK machine gun 5,45mm RPK74 machine gun 7,62mm PK-PKM machine gun 12,7 mm DSHK heavy machine gun The Syrian Army has currently 306.000, with 250,000 Soldiers avialble for front line service. The Airforce has (Air Force) (Soldiers) 30.000 (Air Defence) 40.000 Soldiers (Combat Aircrafts) 559 (Transport Aircrafts) 23 (Attack Helicopter) 100 (Helicopter) 118 (Navy) (Soldiers) 4.000 (Corvettes) 2 (Patrol Vessels) 8 (Minesweeper) 1 Reserves include 132,000 Men + 400.000 Militia (Paramilitaries)"
 
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Vulture    and at what effectiveness level?   4/25/2004 5:32:23 PM
Sorry but back in the 90's, it was common for Syiran officers to hitchhike to their unit. Because their motorpools could not keep staff cars in operational condition. In recent history the only time the Army actually went offensive, it was in a set piece battle, and they had days to move in position. So I really do question the ACTUAL number of effectives in the Syrian army. BTW Baker(europe) still does lots of work keeping Syria oil fields functional.
 
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bsl    RE:Does USA have the capability to invade Syria?   4/25/2004 8:01:54 PM
I think so. It would pretty well leave the US without the ability to do anything else, such as heavily reinforcing South Korea should the flag go up, but it wouldn't take more than a corps to defeat a smaller army than Saddam had.
 
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Roman    RE:Does USA have the capability to invade Syria?   4/25/2004 9:53:26 PM
Well, according to Strategy Page, Syria has a military capability worth '85 points'. Iraq before the war had it assessed at '84 points', so the two were more or less the same. Info from Strategy Page and from CIA World Factbook (rounded): Syria Size: 185,180 square kilometers Population: 17.6 million GDP PPP: $63.5 billion Military Power Rank in Middle East: 4 (after Israel, Iran and Egypt) Military Power: 85 Active Military: 310,000 men Military Manpower - Reaching Military Age Annually: 211,000 Military Manpower ? Availability: 4,720,000 Military Manpower ? Fit for Military Service: 2,630,000 Military Budget: $860 million (in PPP terms multiply by 4.36 to get about $3.8 billion) Military Budget per Soldier: $2,000 (PPP terms multiply by 4.36 to get about $8,720) Armoured Fighting Vehicles (Tanks, IFVs, etc): 8,500 Land Combat Aircraft: 600
 
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Worcester    RE:Does USA have the capability to invade Syria?   4/25/2004 10:53:24 PM
Theoretically yes; practically and politically, absolutely no! We have yet to demonstrate any capacity for managing Iraq - those of us pro-war against Saddam are still amazed by the naivete and pure simple incompetence of Bremer's administration. The US still only has one skill, winning wars. Since the lessons of peacemaking have still not been learned, it will be quite a while before the US military is willing to embark on another such venture.
 
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displacedjim    RE:Does USA have the capability to invade Syria?   4/26/2004 6:45:30 AM
As far as being able to take Syria, it would not be difficult. Syria has almost as many fighters and probably more and better SAMs than Iraq did, and they're pretty well maintained and trained, but as usual--particularly in a dictatorial Arab society like Syria with an inflexible military C2 structure where everyone looks to higher headquarters for orders--it would only take a couple days to completely dismantle their IADS and gain air superiority. They have a lot of SAMs that we'd still have to watch out for, but once each SAM battery is isolated from higher headquarters, they will be much easier to control. After that, it's just a matter of crunching up a bunch of targets. Like everyone else, I agree that the problem isn't taking the country, but holding the country. Seeing as how much of the trouble in Iraq today is from Saudi-financed Syrian fighters, I'd guess the same and worse would spring up the day after we finished off the Syrian military. Maybe we need to honor that time-tested axiom, and "Follow the money." Displacedjim
 
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Thomas    RE:Does USA have the capability to invade Syria?   4/26/2004 10:18:11 AM
the question is wrong. The Question should be can Turkie invade Syria. The question is relevant, as Turkie has threatned with war, if syria did not stop harbouring terrorists. Taht is why Syria dumped APO on the greeks, they in turn weren't to displeased with Turkie kidnapping him.
 
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bsl    RE:Does USA have the capability to invade Syria?   4/27/2004 10:51:27 PM
"Syria has a military capability worth '85 points'...." Part of which is tied up in Lebanon, and part of which faces the Israelis. Someone with good ties to both the CIA and Cencom reports that when asked how long it would take to defeat the Syrians, American military and intelligence types respond, "An hour. Fifty nine minutes to stop laughing."
 
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displacedjim    RE:Does USA have the capability to invade Syria? -- bsl   4/28/2004 10:13:33 AM
I am the Syrian air defense command and control analyst for the Air Force's National Air and Space Intelligence Center. I concur. That's why I posted what I did a couple posts ago. :-) Displacedjim
 
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Roman    RE:Does USA have the capability to invade Syria? -- bsl   4/28/2004 2:18:50 PM
"I am the Syrian air defense command and control analyst for the Air Force's National Air and Space Intelligence Center. I concur. That's why I posted what I did a couple posts ago." That is reassuring to hear than! BTW: Can you give us some interesting info on Syrian air defenses? Nothing classified, of course, - just normal info. :)
 
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