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Subject: Paraphrasing 1914
SYSOP    7/23/2014 6:07:47 AM
 
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Robert Walther    Robert Walther   7/23/2014 7:14:35 AM
It does not really matter if Putin is psychotic or just fanatically power mad. IF Putin uses a tactical nuke on a military base in the Ukraine (or any other European, non-NATO) country, Europe will essentially surrender. Probably England as well. The US will then be forced to choose MAD exchange with Czar Vlad to save Europe, whose members seem to pretty much hate us.
Even without a massive US military response, the world economy would collapse. The world bankers will have shorted the Stock Markets, further destroying our functioning but extremely fragile monetary belief system. The question is simple. Would Putin's puppets dance to his 'I want the world' tactic. Would Napoleon or Hitler have taken the chance with the same weapons?
Such a chilling process would not last beyond Putin. Has any conqueror ever really cared about what happened after he was dead? You decide. 
 
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bob sykes       7/23/2014 8:15:09 AM
Putin is not insane. He is a Russian patriot who is exploiting a crisis created by Obama, Hollande, Cameron, Merkel, Barroso, Van Rompuy and Rasmussen. They initiated the crisis when they engineered the coup that removed Yanukovych. If they had left him in power, Crimea would still be part of the Ukraine, and there would be no rebellion in the east. The east you will remember voted overwhelmingly for Yanukovych and could have been expected to meekly accept his removal. The coup may yet prove to be one of the most egregious foreign policy debacles in history.
 
It is also clear that those EU/US leaders have some responsibility for the shoot-down. It also would not have occurred had they not staged the coup.
 
Finally, Europe is on the verge of war. It is so because the US/EU refuses to allow any negotiations with the rebels to defuse the crisis and because they are aggressively pushing NATO/EU expansion right up to the borders of Russia. If war breaks out, it will be a result of this aggression. 
 
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pdb       7/23/2014 9:21:08 AM
Hey guys, we found the hired internet troll!
 
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WarNerd       7/23/2014 3:19:10 PM
It does not really matter if Putin is psychotic or just fanatically power mad. IF Putin uses a tactical nuke on a military base in the Ukraine (or any other European, non-NATO) country, Europe will essentially surrender. Probably England as well. The US will then be forced to choose MAD exchange with Czar Vlad to save Europe, whose members seem to pretty much hate us.
The only effect that nuking a military base in the Ukraine would have is resurrect the Cold War in spades.  NATO funding and force levels would be given priority in all budgets and the US would most likely be invited to reestablish it forward nuclear deployment as counter to Russian nuclear aggression.  Total economic isolation for Russia.  The SALT treaties will be terminated with a return to the arms race, which the US and probably China will ‘win’.
 
As for Europe surrendering as soon as Russia pops a nuke
Germany maybe, if the Obama dithers too much
The former Warsaw Pact members in the EU, probably never.  Make Russia come in on the ground and pay for it.
France is too erratic to predict and has an independent nuclear force, may just give Russia the finger, may join NATO,
UK also has a nuclear deterrent, since France won’t cave in they would be too embarrassed to.
 
The fun part for Russia is that no one will feel safe dealing with them after they use nukes for a minor spat, so no financial deals with China anymore.  Africa and South America will also turn away from Russia to avoid likely sanctions.  Probably a lot of neighbors either inviting US strategic forces into their countries going nuclear -- Japan, South Korea, Persian Gulf (starting with Iran).  On the positive side (rriigghhtt) North Korea will want to be their buddy, China will be ‘unhappy’.
 
In short, there is no upside for Russia using nukes offensively in the Ukraine.  And no MAD exchange is either needed or desired unless Putin hits a NATO state next (Assuming he survives that long, his allies are neither that crazy or that stupid).  Even then it would start as tit-for-tat.
Even without a massive US military response, the world economy would collapse. The world bankers will have shorted the Stock Markets, further destroying our functioning but extremely fragile monetary belief system.
They would short some stocks and go long in others.  Petroleum and natural gas producers, for example, would be in high demand.  Also heavy equipment, manufacturing, and primary materials.  Entertainment, housing, and financial services would take hits.  The money has to go somewhere.
The question is simple. Would Putin's puppets dance to his 'I want the world' tactic. Would Napoleon or Hitler have taken the chance with the same weapons?
 
Such a chilling process would not last beyond Putin. Has any conqueror ever really cared about what happened after he was dead? You decide. 
Napoleon, probably never.  He wanted to rule the world and was philosophical about it when he lost.
Hitler with his back to the wall, yes but against the Russians only.  Even though it wouldn’t have made a difference in the end.
 
Most civilized conquerors do care, history will be their judge.  That is why formal and informal codes of politics and military conduct were established in many periods of history.  And why those who violated them have such negative connotations in history.
 
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avatar3    Thank You   7/23/2014 3:37:11 PM
Dear Uncle Joe (Stalin)
  Just a little thank you note for allowing your boy Bob (Sykes) entertain us.
  But the line about Obama creating a crisis was a little off, because  I can assure you Barak has no time for a crisis. What with Golfing, Pool Playing, Beer Drinking, Work Dodging, and Posturing just no time. Besides, as you well know, he has other Border  Problems that are not not related to Russia.
  Yes I know you screwed up with the shoot down. But, I forgive you, after all you are Russian and nobody expects anything better. If you want to make it up to the world ,load one of your very fine aircraft with 300 civilians and shoot it down - we'd be even. If you don't have any working planes maybe you can borrow one from Malaysia.
   Finally your comment that we are on the brink of war. I'm glad you said that because now we are going to have to increase our Military Budget where as before we were going to cut it! Same with the CIA, until you opened that new spy station in Cuba they were goners, you saved them!   
    Good luck with your birth rate and the value of the Ruble! 
Sam (Uncle)
 
 
 
 
 
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trenchsol       7/23/2014 6:09:42 PM

Hey guys, we found the hired internet troll!
It is hard to tell them from genuine idiots.
 
 
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jammy       7/24/2014 3:23:59 AM
Don't see the big deal. Ukraine was part of Russia 25 years ago, and is full of Russians, if they are too incompetent to defend their own territory from a bunch of amateurs they deserve to have it taken away.
 
Russia's providing supplies and intelligence support? Who cares, every nation would do the exact same thing if they were in their position.
 
U.S media aggression is laughable, trying to blame Putin for that airliner.
And now you guys are talking about nuking, crazy.
 
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Daryus       7/24/2014 9:02:50 AM
Hhmm... The russians never used nukes in war. Why that would change now?
 
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trenchsol       7/24/2014 9:53:15 AM
The big deal is that Russia have a quarter of EU population and only a tiny fraction of EU money. Google allows anyone to find EU vs. Russia comparisons. EU is a major customer for Russian exports and Russia has chosen to p*ss EU off with Ukraine. And further on with the airliner accident. It matters less who is right or wrong, but what the consequences will be. It is much easier for EU to find a substitute for Russia than the opposite. It might take some time, though.
 
There is a renewed and increased interest in LNG terminals in Europe recently. It is not difficult to understand why.
 
 
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Robert Walther    Robert Walther   7/24/2014 10:11:16 AM
WarNerd,
 I really like your analysis. You 'Decided'.
 
I was born in 1950 and now have 8 adult, married children and 8+ grandchildren, and I most certainly do not like my prediction. It would be rough on the family. Russia worries me because of the 'Stalin' syndrome that seems to affect many of its leaders.The current internal, growing majority support of Putin is also very odd, even for Russians. I think it would be impossible for Europe and England to reach a consensus to oppose military Russian aggression beyond a certain, very limited level. Even with agreement, the action phase would be difficult to construct, much less activate. The main issue is would the nuke card, even if minor, be played by Putin?
 
As for the hypothetical 'gnomes of Zürich' effect. The evisceration and near destruction of world financial markets, version 2008, is a endless recurring nightmare that is implemented partly by pure greed and amplified by stupidity. Another significant part of these market collapses are orchestrated by a limited number of Bankers and investors, who pocket a few trillion for the 10's of trillions they destroyed. There is certainly a very limited 'punishment' (a few cents on the dollar) for the minority of these thieves who actually get prosecuted. Bankers, as a group, have many of the same characteristics of Islamic terrorists, as a group. Only a few commit the atrocities, but the rest approve openly or say nothing, which is worse. "The Only Thing Necessary for the Triumph of Evil is that Good Men Do Nothing."
 
The most important agents in my chilling doomsday theoretical lies with the identifiable unknowns: Russian population and Russian oligarchs who 'serve' Putin. Would they stop him if he tried, or can they stop him if they wanted too? I have no idea - about Russian psyche.
 
NATO Europe needs to protect itself. Will It? Will non-NATO former subject of the Soviets fight? No Doubt! Will the US honor its treaties and back(lead) the Europeans again? No Doubt! Win or lose, Will those we help do more than despise and ridicule us? I hope not. We already have a mewling plethora of anti-American pundits whose primary fantasy is to see this great hope burn.
 
The world is streaking at an unprecedented rate to the solution of its problems, including those man has created. The future is incomprehensibly bright; and due the intensity of the light, it is difficult to distinguish shapes and actors. I refuse to believe the triumph of man will be stopped, especially now as as I fade and my descendents grow and involve at all levels.
 
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