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Subject: The Putin Paradox
SYSOP    11/20/2014 5:58:42 AM
 
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Nate Dog    Couple of things   11/20/2014 7:24:56 PM
1. Name Putin in title would indicate that the comments section will soon be flooded with a bunch of paid russian hacks to spam us with the wonders of Russians and how much drugs we must all be smoking to believe this article.
2. Don't really agree that Russians are so averse to another large war. Large parts of Soviet perdition were self inflicted by the great c##t Stalin.  
3. Its shit like this which largely explains why we dont want to/shouldnt do business with Russia:
 
 
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Lance Blade       11/21/2014 11:41:03 AM
The idea of full scale war with Ukraine is unpopular, according to various social surveys. The way Russia is waging this war breaks about every Sun Tzu rule in the book. The classic way to fight is to attack suddenly with overwhelming force from several directions, preceded by bombing runs and with tactical air support, causing the enemy to lose hope and surrender. 
 
What do we see instead? No air support for Russian units, the units themselves are disguised as 'not theirs' (so basically they're throwing away the psychological fear factor that would come from fighting Russia) and are mixed with poorly trained locals on one limited front. This war is fought at a very slow pace, giving the enemy plenty of warning and time to prepare themselves. All this makes the Ukrainian side think they can defeat the enemy, which translates to harder fighting, less battlefield success and bigger casualties. They're also lying to their own armed forces about the casualty rate and involvement (which in the long run is just going to cause the Russian soldiers to question their leadership). 
 
They're paying a pretty high price just to maintain the illusion (to most Russians) that they're not involved, and that's just a civil war with pro-Russian Ukrainians. The only explanation is that they really don't want to do an Iraq-style invasion, because full scale war is not popular with neither the leadership nor the Russian people. 
 
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avatar3     Same old story   11/21/2014 4:18:55 PM
Again the Russians are telling themselves how great a nation they are. REALITY CHECK: They were and still are a 3rd class backwater. Once they had a 1st class military and yes they still have atomic weapons, but where is the economy to go them? They talk about the threat to their home land, but who wants an impoverished frozen tract? Do they have marketable skills, or industry, what do they produce that the world needs, oil? That puts them in the same class as Nigeria! Even their vaunted military industry is deficient. This week they told their partner India that the new T-50 fighter will not be ready for production until the end of the decade. That's a plane that is supposed to be equal to the US F22 not the advanced F35! Why the delay? Because that's about the time it will take for them steal and implemented those F22 plans. Putin is talking himself and his people into a war with the west, his real enemy is in the East. Well the Sons of Heaven can have them.
 
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WarNerd       11/22/2014 2:20:28 AM
They're paying a pretty high price just to maintain the illusion (to most Russians) that they're not involved, and that's just a civil war with pro-Russian Ukrainians. The only explanation is that they really don't want to do an Iraq-style invasion, because full scale war is not popular with neither the leadership nor the Russian people. 
A short victorious war would just make Putin more popular.
 
The explanation is that they have to maintain a fig leaf that they aren’t involved to give cover to the ‘peace at any price’ crowd in NATO.  As it is there are several candidates for the Neville Chamberlain Peace Prize
 
If Russia openly invaded they could trigger another Cold War and rearmed Europe.  They would also see the EU taking firm steps to free themselves from their dependency on Russian oil and gas and imposing real sanctions with catastrophic economic effects.
 
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Lance Blade       11/22/2014 4:29:16 AM
But that's just it WarNerd, all of this is already happening anyway. They've already got sanctions, a re-arming Europe and an EC that's drawn up plans to free itself of Russian gas. The nature of the sanctions gives you an idea about the West's intentions... they are not short-term sanctions. They are something that is designed to cripple sectors of the Russian economy in the long run. It's actually pretty scary how serious the West is. The only thing the West can do more is turn off SWIFT and maybe arm Ukraine (which I have a feeling they're already doing anyway, just not overtly or in mass). I don't see what else Putin has to lose. If his goal is simply Ukraine he'd have been better off just grabbing the thing in February when Yanukovich fled. There was a real opportunity there, everything was set up. Have Yanuk turn up in Kharkiv, announce a Republic of South-East Ukraine, call for Russian protection... it would have worked. But Putin (reportedly) said no, and the whole affair collapsed. Now he's, what, changed his mind and wants to do it again but the hard way? 
 
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TRAD    Sugjugate Russia   11/22/2014 9:19:50 AM
Putin says he believes that the West wants to subjugate Russia. It is a great idea, as they have historically made it a practice to feel more secure by taking bits and pieces of unwilling neighbors.  China, Japan, Finland, Poland, Germany, Georgia, Ukraine Turkey and on and on.
 
The great genius Putin is turning his country into a dependency of China. They the Chinese are under no illusion about the reliability of Russia or the intelligence of Putin which is low.  He is a case in point why dictatorships are inherently unstable and self destructive.  The Chinese will pragmatically benefit from whatever energy or economic deals they can make, plus the possibility of one less long border to be overly concerned about.
 
The West needs to put this dog down and confirm all of the fears of its paranoid citizens.  Claims should be made through international means by all willing and affected parties for return of past territories.  Technology sources should be drained. Defense budgets need to be increased. Mercenaries should be hired for Ukraine.  Russian held territory in predominately Muslim areas need not be peaceful.  Aggressive patrolling to check out Russian defenses should be done tit for tat.  American tanks need to be returned to theater. Annual exercises like Reforger need to return.  
 
Only an idiot with the country the size of Russia and population the size of Japan would get aggressive with its neighbors like he has.  He needs to pay dearly for what he has already done because he has clearly identified himself as an enemy of the West with aggressive actions.  Had he moved Russia towards the West then the world would have been a better place, instead he is playing with fire for short term gain and ego.  Crush his ego!
 
 
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CJH       11/22/2014 2:28:24 PM
If only we could read Putin's mind. That would be an education.

I wonder how valid our assumptions are in regard to Russia.

Sanctions hurt the Russia that wants to be cosmopolitan and connected to the world but would Putin prefer to have less economic power and less independence for upper class Russians for his own sake?

Russia is losing admirers but does it believe it needs them? Would not converting European neighbors into client states dependent on Russia for military security and trade be acceptable if not preferable? Is not Western Europe dependent for its economic welfare on trade with the US and with the Americas? Maybe Putin is ambitious of displacing the US, Canada, etc (also China I suppose) as economic partners of Russia's European neighbors? If so, maybe he would be encouraged in this by seemingly growing moral paralysis of the US (Strike while the iron is hot!). These European states wouldn't have to love Russia, just be cajoled and seduced into taking the easiest path and going along with it as a senior partner.

The Russians have to be seeing a future showdown with China as probable if not inevitable. So would not Russia want to prepare for that by enhancing its power through incorporating neighboring Europe (Warsaw Pact upgraded) into a close partnership with it beforehand?

I guess all this is to say we need to test all of our assumptions about Putin and Russia.

 
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Nate Dog    Lance Blade   11/22/2014 7:24:22 PM
Not exactly there yet.
While Poland is on a massive spending drive and Armed forces modernisation path, its about the only one in Europe.
Ukrain is trying to re-arm, but, its currently fighting what must be an expensive war, has lost its largest trading partner (russia) and is trying to recover from 15 years of misrule and mismanagement.
Otherwise, Nato budgets continue to decline. None of the rest of the Nato countries have increased their military budget spending and every one of them has maintained the decline that started at the end of the cold war.
Should Russia openly invade, all that would likely change, and quickly. Germany alone could outspend Russia by a fair amount (German economy is almost twice the size of the Russian one). Of course ones a democracy with social responsibility and ones a dictatorship run by apparently the least stable ruler Russia's had since Stalin so that's quiet a subjective assessment.
As for divesting itself of Russian gas this is still only talk, without actual serious investment down that line. As long as Russia isn't obviously conquering european countries and Russian gas remains cheap, they'll keep buying from Russia.
 
Listen to Warnerd, he knows what he's talking about most of the time.
Well, some of the time ;)
 
 
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WarNerd       11/23/2014 2:01:27 AM
But that's just it WarNerd, all of this is already happening anyway. They've already got sanctions, a re-arming Europe and an EC that's drawn up plans to free itself of Russian gas. The nature of the sanctions gives you an idea about the West's intentions... they are not short-term sanctions. They are something that is designed to cripple sectors of the Russian economy in the long run. It's actually pretty scary how serious the West is. The only thing the West can do more is turn off SWIFT and maybe arm Ukraine (which I have a feeling they're already doing anyway, just not overtly or in mass). I don't see what else Putin has to lose. If his goal is simply Ukraine he'd have been better off just grabbing the thing in February when Yanukovich fled. There was a real opportunity there, everything was set up. Have Yanuk turn up in Kharkiv, announce a Republic of South-East Ukraine, call for Russian protection... it would have worked. But Putin (reportedly) said no, and the whole affair collapsed. Now he's, what, changed his mind and wants to do it again but the hard way? 
Actually, the sanctions have little bite accept for some of Putin’s cronies. Gas imports and oil imports from Russia are not dropping, and sanctions are kept limited so as to not interfere with them. Most of the loss of western investment is due to the lack of the rule of law in Russia allowing any productive enterprises to be expropriated outright or through the courts. And there are no serious plans to repair the decrepitude of non-US NATO forces.
 
Too many politicians want too much funding to buy votes, and the only way to get it is to continue gutting the military.
 
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Lance Blade       11/24/2014 7:25:05 AM
Sorry, I don't really agree. The sanctions have made Russian investments toxic and cut Russian firms off from international money. We know this because big energy companies are now publicly (!) asking the Russian government for bail-outs to refinance their loans. Normally they'd just re-credit with foreign cash. Russia has dollar reserves, but they're not endless, and certainly not enough to pay for expanding operations as well as paying down existing maturing loans. The thought of federal budget money going into big firms' coffers is pretty weird; Russians are kind of used to it going the other way. And by the way, the Russian slang for the dollar is 'currency'. Right now they have a big shortage of 'currency' on the market (low oil prices do not help) which is why the ruble exchange rate is going through the roof and is also why Putin cut imports cold turkey (under the guise of 'counter-sanctions'). It might help a bit, but fundamentally they'll still have to dig into their reserves (and they have been doing that).
 
The sanctions also limit transfer of high-tech for hydrocarbon extraction; all that will happen in the long run is Russia will just lose investors to its competitors (like Kazakhstan) who don't have sanctions slapped on them.  And the sanctions on Putin's buddies are important because Putin now has to guarantee to reimburse them that money that they're losing from government coffers. (such a law is currently being put through the Duma). Which again is more expenses. Sooner or later the money will run out. I can't see how they will get out of it - there's certainly nothing in Ukraine that's worth conquering that will solve their problems. 
 
As for squaring up to NATO, hmm... sure, maybe this way Putin can lull some NATO countries into not mobilising. He won't win anything either. You can't expect to expand your territory in a war if you don't even attempt to establish air superiority. Right now, NATO has lost 0 soldiers and have taken minimal financial losses (propping up Ukraine basically), while Russia loses men and materiel every day and has taken quite a significant financial battering. Their enemies (like the Chechen separatists) are freely establishing a presence and conducting combat operations on Ukrainian soil where they enjoy a favorable combat environment, the Russian armed forces are now seen as weak and beatable in Ukraine, Georgians (and others) are lining up in the volunteer battalions to take potshots at the Russians, and sooner or later at this rate Putin will have to invade Ukraine properly simply for security reasons. Only by that point they'd have prepared defensive lines and put out more combat units and equipment. It's the weirdest way to fight a war - they're deliberately negating their strengths and handicapping themselves. 
 
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