...under war AND an economic embargo, will have more GDP growth this year than...

 

 

...Brazil, which isn't under none of the former situations.

 

Oh Dilma Roussef and PT, you're so competent... 

I don't quite understand the Assad part. How would Assad removal turn back the tide of IS and Nusra in Syria ? Alawites are tiny minority and they are losing. If government achieved a string of military victories, people *might* (just might) reconsider their support for IS and Nusra. But, there are no military victories for the government, only defeats.

 

This reminds me of a situation in Afghanistan in 1979, when Soviet special forces assassinated Afghan president Amin, a Soviet ally. He was assassinated because Soviets believed it would calm the situation in the country. It didn't...

 

I don't think there is a way to stop IS and Nusra from taking over major part of Syria, but, perhaps, the situation might be contained after that.

 

If assad is dead and his supporters fall form power, then the West and some of the Middle East can step in and support Syria as a nation.   As it stands we really can only support the Kurds in Syria w/o political blowback.

 

Good point, Spikey.

 

Current US administration is clever enough to know that there is no way to stop IS and Nusra from taking Syria, and IS from taking western Iraq. They are just going through the motions with these airstrikes, so nobody can say they dis nothing.

 

Syrian government and Hezbollah had some military success in the past, but that was during period when Nusra and IS fought each other. Those days are over, they aren't fighting any more, they might even be coordinating. I have found a bit of information about IS warning FSA ('moderate' Syrian rebels) to cut of ties with West. It means there is an information exchange between different anti-government groups, so I believe they are coordinating, indeed.

 

After all, there is some justice in what is going on. Syrian government has been abusing power in their own country, as well as in Lebanon, for decades. Shiites in Iraq got their country in 'working condition' back in 2011, and blew it. Now they will have to be content with half of it. Kurds will have their territory, if not a state, finally.

 

As far as Russia is concerned, they have been betting on wrong horse.

 

There is one bright spot. Iraq had considerable military force in Saddam's era. If alive, Saddam would have been nearing 80 at this time. A considerable age for a politician and dictator. With no clear successor, I bet that someone like IS would have taken control of that large army. Thanks to George W. Bush and his father, that army is no more and a threat to no one. What is left are just scraps of it.

 

Only a sectarian blood bath.

There will be no Syria to help once Assad is toppled, whenever that may happen. He's got an amazing knack to buck the trend and keep his peoples misery in perpetuity long after EVERYBODY assumes he's lost it all.  

So, misery will only get worse not better. I think once he's finally gone, there wont be a damn thing we can do to stop it, but the Sunni's 80% of Syrians, are going to slaughter the Alawites in a blood letting unlike anything we've yet seen. The Alawites have fought a very nasty brutal campaign, punctuated by the latest trick they've got going on, demolishing every hospital within range of their chopper forces, so far over a dozen Hospitals have been levelled this past fortnight. So, the Alawites can't surrender, as they've gone way too far already, and the Sunnis aren't going to give up, as they've suffered so many losses already that they likely see no point in giving up after so much carnage without some kind of achievement to show for it.

 

AS to those cookie russians. Yes. What they need now is another good dose of Stalinian discipline.

Lets see, widely accredited (before this new round of inevitable historical re-enacurations that will soon be coming from Russia) with over 30 million dead Russians alone, never mind how many foreigners died at his hands... So, out of 120 million russians alive today, a Stalinesque type plague on Russia should reduce its population to a steady 90 million or so, Im sure Putin would feel much more comfortable in his dominion if he manages to kill another 30 million of Russias best and brightest. If you're only competition for supreme rule of all the Russias are people who struggle to peel a parsnip, then you're pretty much set for life.

 

Personally, much as i worry Russians have a little too much liking for being told what to do, i would think that this latest marketing campaign would be the impetus for revolution.

Seriously, for Russians, with the damage he wrought that nation, Stalin should be as much anathema to them as hitler is to Germans and Jews.

 

 

The Mideastern succession game is not exactly something that is fun to play. We have already seen what happens once the strongman is brought down. In case of Saddam Hussein and Gaddafi, there were no runner-up to take over the power vacuum. The result? Welcome to civil war and there is simply no one in particular for the West to bet on. While the Kurds in Northern Iraq looks promising, they are only a minority in otherwise Arab-dominated landscape and can barely defend what they already have with a bit of Western aid.

 

As for Putin, he wants to cast himself as the 'defender of Russia'. With the amount of provocations against Ukraine and, to a lesser extent, the Baltic States and the rest of NATO, he is begging for direct NATO presence in these places. He can then crank up the amplifier, 'Look! The Big Bad NATO wolf is out there to get us!' The way he has casted himself, he has no justification for overstaying his welcome if there were no hostile neighbors to finger point at. Historical revisionism is in full throttle; he would not be doing this unless he expects to stay in power for the rest of his life.

I think the single biggest mistake Moscow has made is in provoking NATO through Putinistic paranoia. While Russia has been in an ass-hurt mode due to the loss of the empire and the shrinking of the once massive Soviet armed forces, NATO has been downsizing as well. The addition of former Soviet satellite states into NATO was quite disturbing for Moscow, but NATO as a whole did not correspondingly become more powerful. Not to mention, throughout the two decades, the US has been preoccupied with the Middle East and has considerably reduced its presence in Europe. On top of all that, the US has to reckon with growing China and headache-some North Korea. In sum, the US has a plenty of other places OTHER than Russia to become preoccupied with.

 

Yet, Moscow wants to attract American attention? When you are in a rebuilding mode (which Russia is going through), the last thing you would want is to attract too much attention.

 

I think China is likely to be the biggest winner from this Russo-NATO tussle. If I were China, I would be extracting as much concessions from Russia while it lasts. 

To me the biggest question is, If Isis, and Al Nusra take Syria, should America, invade?

Im Not sure If I like Isis with scud missiles,  Chem weapons, and fighter jets.And Im not sure Isis will be content with only SYRIA. I could easily see them over running Lebanon, and then picking a fight with Israel.

They only need to beat back or assimilate some of Hezbollah, and then they will have rocket bombardment assets.

I dont understand why the US, Israel, and Turkey, havent gotten on the ground.