The senior general in the U.S. Army warned that American troops might be in Iraq, at current levels, for another four years. This adds another obstacle for army recruiters. All of the services know, from long experience, that every time you send troops overseas, to an unpleasant place, especially one where they cannot bring their families along, a certain percentage of those troops will not re-enlist. This is very predictable, with the navy having the same experience with long cruises.

If the army keeps the number of troops it currently has in Iraq, for the next four years, that means many soldiers are going to spend every other year, or one year out of three, in Iraq of Afghanistan. Re-enlistments are at an all time high right now, because of the war. Troops who serve there, know they are making a difference. But most of them have families to take care of, and that?s what causes many of them to get out of the army. How many troops the army will lose because of sending half a million troops to Iraq and Afghanistan over the next four years, is unknown. At least a few thousand, and possibly over 10,000.

But there?s another problem, accumulated combat stress. Combat wears a man down and out, particularly infantry fighting. World War II experience revealed that the average soldier can be effective for about 200 days of combat. After that, you generally have a case of combat fatigue; someone dangerous to themselves and those around them. At that point, these veterans are best removed to non-combat jobs or civilian occupations.

But a lot has changed since World War II. The army knows a lot more about combat stress, and how to manage it. To a certain extent, you can mitigate (erase the effect of) some of those days of combat. The army has already demonstrated this, by having many troops go through more than 200 days of combat action in Iraq, and come back in good shape. And then go back, a year later, for another year. But this is getting to be uncharted territory, with troops subjected to multiple tours of action in, in Iraq, especially.