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Subject: Strategist Putin Strikes An Ominous Deal With Iran
SYSOP    1/20/2015 9:48:44 PM
 
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Photon       1/22/2015 12:45:10 PM
I think the ongoing escalation was not what Putin had intended; he must have assumed that he could grab Eastern Ukraine like what he had pulled off from Crimea earlier.
 
His hard-line stance might be explained by the fact that he has been meticulously taking control over the Russian mass media for years, resulting in portraying himself as the champion of Russian nationalism. Therefore, he can ill afford to give up brinkmanship or risk losing this very foundation. At the same time, his brand of drum beating of restoring the 'Russia's greatness' has likely contributed to becoming blind to details like how much Russia's GDP depends on (and thus vulnerable to the whim of) energy exports. Not to mention, spending years crafting dictatorship has also led to narcissism, making him to underestimate his Western peers.
 
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TRAD    And?   1/22/2015 12:48:25 PM
We now have an alliance of convenience between two competitors, Russia and Iran. They both produce oil and natural gas. They are both commodity ridden economies. The proxy war is already going on between Iran and Saudi Arabia.  The smaller Gulf States are arming in anticipation of a hotter war. In a hot war with Saudi Arabia I do not believe Yemen is in play with the Shia's supported by Iran proving their point in the capitol, forcing the President to to be ineffective an opening up a larger near term religious conflagration in Yemen.  
 
 The present Russian Navy is not much more then a speed bump.  Other then additional weapons sales and cross training which may be as successful as cross dressing I don't see much for Russia to gain other then being an irritant. About the same as the spy ship showing up in Havana when detente is emerging with the USA.
 
Putin is playing a very weak demographic hand and his economic moves will make that trend worse as who will be able to afford children. In short he is and remains a dumb ass.   North America is about to achieve energy independence. Until the shale fracking revolution the USA reserves were confined to 7% of the land mass and off shore.  About 93 percent of the USA is shale land.  This allows us to choose our international policies less reflexively. China will be a big winner with cheaper energy prices until and if they can develop their shale based oil and gas reserves and convert from coal over time. Having been in China I have noted they are doing well in solar heating in the deep south Yunnan province using it in residents and commercially for water in hotels.  Electricity is generated more conventionally.
 
 
 
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CJH       1/24/2015 4:46:59 PM
?International propaganda frustrates Western media scrutiny of Russia's calculated tactical combat action.?

But is the effectiveness of this propaganda more due to Kremlin skill or to Western moral fecklessness?

?Low oil prices damage the regime the Saudis see as their biggest threat: Shiite Iran's theocratic dictatorship.?

They also cut into the real or potential oil profits of the IS, yes? Also, isn?t Israel developing its own sizeable petro resources?

?According to the AP, this week (Jan. 20), Iran and Russia signed ?an agreement to expand military cooperation.??

If this agreement facilitates the outbreak of war in the M.E. that could get oils prices high again. Hmm. So, yes ? ?If Iran actually tried to shut the Strait, Western nations have assured Gulf Arab oil producers that they will respond militarily.?

Putin has anywhere until February 2017 to say the end of 2017 to grab all that he can. I am sure he is watch the clock. To bad about this because one can deduce that Putin will destabilize Europe.

 
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CJH       1/24/2015 4:51:08 PM
Also -

" Iran and Russia are old antagonists, but given current circumstances vis a vis the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, Tehran and Moscow may be following an old Machiavellian adage: 'the enemy of my enemy is my friend.'"

Does not Russia repeat history (August 1939) here?
 
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CJH       1/25/2015 10:08:11 AM
Also - could it be that the control of Saudi Arabia is the ultimate object of the Iranians here (by way of Syria, Iraq, emirates, Yemen, etc)?
 
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