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Subject: Taiwan to retire Mirage 2000 early
YelliChink    10/23/2009 11:01:21 AM
Recently news in Taiwan revealed that the harsh environment and high operational tempo have put higher-than-expected tear and wear on Mirage 2000. Among all the problems, the faults on rotors in engines is the more severe. The ROCAF is now reducing training routing of Mirage 2000 to and flight hours is almost equivalent to total grounding of the fleet. High maintenance expenses is also a headache to ROCAF. The operational expenses of Mirage 2000 is roughly five times of F-16A/B and 3 times more than IDF. ROCAF is currently studying replacement for Mirage 2000, and may retire the fleet early or mothball most of the fleet.

We need new F-16C/D desperately.
 
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SlowMan       10/23/2009 11:55:44 AM
I can't wait to see BlueWing or French Frigate shouting "Rafale for Taiwan!" in this thread soon enough.
 
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YelliChink       10/23/2009 12:07:15 PM

I can't wait to see BlueWing or French Frigate shouting "Rafale for Taiwan!" in this thread soon enough.

French side is not the one to be blamed. Part of the problem is due to purchase operation inside MOD of ROC, and part of the reason is that the purchase is through commercial channel, not the usual FMS channel from the US that the military personnel are used to. That are a lot of middle men to go through. You'll be surprised about who actually receive the money.
 
And, I indeed call for sale of Rafale to Taiwan and I stand by my words. After all, we might be able to get some discount by trade-in the old Mirages, and the MICA and Magic missiles that we've bought are still usable.
 
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SlowMan       10/23/2009 12:59:20 PM
@ YelliChink

> And, I indeed call for sale of Rafale to Taiwan and I stand by my words.

All the while Taiwanese airforce officials are at Washington DC on their knees begging for F-16 C/D.

> After all, we might be able to get some discount by trade-in the old Mirages, and the MICA and Magic missiles that we've bought are still usable.

It doesn't work like that in arms sales to Taiwan. Weapons sold to Taiwan carry "China surcharge" to account for increased friction with China. This is why Taiwan paid $732 million for four Kidd-class destroyers, when the US originally offered these ships to other countries for $20 million each and found no buyer.
 
The way I see it, Taiwan should go to Russia for future arms deal, since Russia is the only arms exporter that could ignore protest from China and sell whatever they want, be it PAK-FA, S-400, Yakhont, etc.
 
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Hamilcar       10/23/2009 1:08:54 PM
Once more history REPEATS. Junk is junk.
 
The F-16s faced the same environmental conditions for example.
 
Why didn't they fail?
 
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YelliChink       10/23/2009 1:48:03 PM

It doesn't work like that in arms sales to Taiwan. Weapons sold to Taiwan carry "China surcharge" to account for increased friction with China. This is why Taiwan paid $732 million for four Kidd-class destroyers, when the US originally offered these ships to other countries for $20 million each and found no buyer.
 

The way I see it, Taiwan should go to Russia for future arms deal, since Russia is the only arms exporter that could ignore protest from China and sell whatever they want, be it PAK-FA, S-400, Yakhont, etc.



$20 million price tag is only the ship hull. Nobody wants it because no one wants to pay the fee to activate it. ROCN took it because Arleigh Burke is not granted. The $732 million contract contains full NTU upgrade, renovation, crew training plus half load of SM-2MR missiles for all four ships. They also bought a warehouse of spare parts knowing that these are gonna be expensive very soon.
 
Russians don't sell weapons systems to Taiwan.
 
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YelliChink       10/23/2009 1:54:59 PM

Once more history REPEATS. Junk is junk.

The F-16s faced the same environmental conditions for example.

Why didn't they fail?


Because parts are cheaper and easier to acquire through FMS channel. Basically, ROCAF buys through USDOD, who package orders to contractors, say, Lockheed Martin. In the case of Mirage, they have to deal with Dassault directly, who then subcontract to SNECMA for engine reparation. Then French government have to give the final nod for the purchase.
 
The other matter has to do with training of ground crew. The first batch were sent to France and studied direct from AdA, Dassault and SNECMA. The later batch were taught indigenously and may get something wrong, since they usually are very bad in English, not to mention French.
 
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SlowMan       10/23/2009 2:17:27 PM
< link >
 
KAI claims that they are negotiating T-50 sales to Taiwan.
 
Maybe Taiwan would attempt to convert these to F/A-50 standard via upgrade kit once they arrive in Taiwan to circumvent Chinese protest?
 
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sentinel28a       10/23/2009 2:26:18 PM
As I recall, the AT-3 is starting to get long in the tooth, so the T-50 wouldn't be a bad choice.  However, it would be no replacement for the Mirage 2000.  You could convert the T-50 into an armed trainer similar to the Alpha Jet, but not an interceptor.  If the Mirage 2000 goes, the competition is wide open for the F-16, the Super Hornet, the Rafale, or the Typhoon.  Like Yelli said, the Russians won't sell to Taiwan--not because they don't want to, but because the PRC would go ballistic.  The absolute last thing Russia needs or wants is an angry China.
 
Given Obama's predilection towards buddying up with oligarchies and dictators, Taiwan may or may not be waiting a long time for those F-16s or SHs.  The Rafale would be a good choice if they're looking for more multirole; the Typhoon as a pure fighter.
 
 
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Hamilcar       10/23/2009 2:40:45 PM

As I recall, the AT-3 is starting to get long in the tooth, so the T-50 wouldn't be a bad choice.  However, it would be no replacement for the Mirage 2000.  You could convert the T-50 into an armed trainer similar to the Alpha Jet, but not an interceptor.  If the Mirage 2000 goes, the competition is wide open for the F-16, the Super Hornet, the Rafale, or the Typhoon.  Like Yelli said, the Russians won't sell to Taiwan--not because they don't want to, but because the PRC would go ballistic.  The absolute last thing Russia needs or wants is an angry China.

 

Given Obama's predilection towards buddying up with oligarchies and dictators, Taiwan may or may not be waiting a long time for those F-16s or SHs.  The Rafale would be a good choice if they're looking for more multirole; the Typhoon as a pure fighter.

 

Buy Typhoon instead. Better engines, radar, missiles, and it can use the same weapons families as the American inventory which the Republic of China cloned (Its already coded for it, so the Sky Swords should work ). Besides the French  have certain under the table deals with Red China that make them less than a savory vendor. That and the Rafale continues the Dassault tradition of poor manufacture quality and service support.

 
 
 
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SlowMan       10/23/2009 2:43:55 PM
@ sentinel28a

> You could convert the T-50 into an armed trainer similar to the Alpha Jet, but not an interceptor.

There are two T-50 airframes, Mk I and Mk II.

Mk I had Lockheed Martin supplied wings, which were intentionally "limited" to reduce its weapons carrying capability. This one will be phased out soon.

Mk II is the totally redesigned airframe(similar to F-15C -> F-15E transition) by KAI with structural reinforcements, new intake for F414 engine, new wings, and a larger radome to host EL/M-2032. This is the airframe on which future lots of T-50, E-50, and F/A-50 would be built on.

So indeed, T-50 Mk II could easily be converted into F/A-50 with a bolt-on upgrade. At least this would reduce the requirement for the number of air-defense fighters.

>  If the Mirage 2000 goes, the competition is wide open for the F-16

Well, Taiwan is begging for it and can't get it.

> the Super Hornet

Boeing wouldn't sell, since they would not want to risk its commercial jet business in China.

> the Rafale

Taiwanese themselves don't want Rafale.

> or the Typhoon.

UK and Germany face pressure from China to not sell.

> but because the PRC would go ballistic.

Like Russia would care.

> The absolute last thing Russia needs or wants is an angry China.

Russia and China have ill relationship with each other.
 
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YelliChink       10/23/2009 4:04:30 PM
T-50? I believe that AIDC may have tried to poke the possibility of joint production, but buying Korea would be a joke and political suicide for some people. AIDC is fully capable of designing and producing anything like T-50. Heck, re-engine IDF/B with F-124 instead of TFE-1042 and you get basically the same thing. AIDC/ROCAF's IDF C/D project is now going on well at the moment.
 
Typhoon is a no-no, since UK, Italy, Germany and Spain also have arms embargo toward Taiwan.
 
Grippen is not an option, since it's performance is very similar to IDF anyway.
 
So, we are really stuck with F-16C/D and Rafale for the moment. If the US is willing to sell F414 with afterburner and grant for other system integration contract, AIDC and ROCAF may be able to come up with something else. They have just completely a series of airborne weapons and system integration to IDF C/D project.

 
 
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YelliChink       10/23/2009 4:15:10 PM

> the Rafale

Taiwanese themselves don't want Rafale.
 
Like Russia would care.

Who told you that we don't want Rafale? Once Mirage 2000 fleet is gone, MICA and Magic stock are basically junk and has to be resold back to France. Given the amount of missiles purchased, I doubt that France would be very interested in that deal. Trade-in old Mirage with new Rafale is actually a good deal for Taiwan. We can get newer everything, no more salty problem thanks for naval version, and still have built-in EW suite and even first active phased array radar.
 
Russia has a policy not to sell weapons systems to Taiwan. China is one factor, and they don't really care that much. They have other means to make money out of this small market.
 
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YelliChink       10/23/2009 4:21:47 PM


Buy Typhoon instead. Better engines, radar, missiles, and it can use the same weapons families as the American inventory which the Republic of China cloned (Its already coded for it, so the Sky Swords should work ).

TC series missiles can't be used on any US-made weapons platform because certain amount of system integration fee is never paid. Besides, TC-1 is old technology, while TC-2 is completely different story. There will be funny things coming out next year to replace TC-1, and that will not be blatant copy of AIM-9 anymore.
 
AIM-120 can't be used on IDF for the very same reason. The ROCAF doesn't want to pay for AIM-120 integration, yet. 
 
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SlowMan       10/23/2009 4:24:32 PM
@ YelliChink

> I believe that AIDC may have tried to poke the possibility of joint production

Joint production at this stage is impossible. License production, sure. T-50 does owe some of itself to around a dozen Ching Kuo engineers who worked on it and AIDC is fully aware of its capability since its own people worked on it.

> AIDC is fully capable of designing and producing anything like T-50.

Yes. But there is no money and time for it.

> Heck, re-engine IDF/B with F-124 instead of TFE-1042

F-124 is the US designation for TFE-1042.

> If the US is willing to sell F414 with afterburner and grant for other system integration contract, AIDC and ROCAF may be able to come up with something else.

I don't think importing F414 would be a problem at this stage, it is the lack of will on Taiwanese government to pursue another expensive indigenous fighter project, since it cannot be exported since no one would dare to buy arms from Taiwan and offend China.
 
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Hamilcar       10/23/2009 4:43:49 PM






Buy Typhoon instead. Better engines, radar, missiles, and it can use the same weapons families as the American inventory which the Republic of China cloned (Its already coded for it, so the Sky Swords should work ).




TC series missiles can't be used on any US-made weapons platform because certain amount of system integration fee is never paid. Besides, TC-1 is old technology, while TC-2 is completely different story. There will be funny things coming out next year to replace TC-1, and that will not be blatant copy of AIM-9 anymore.
 
Like the projected  HARM clone with an AMRAAM type seeker?  Sky Sword II used an American seeker based on the loser to the AMRAAM competition. If there is one thing I know about the ROCese, they can develop, invent a better type, or reverse engineer anything, they want as long as they have something as a guide. Coding is not a technical problem for them, that would be purely politics impediment.  IRIS-T can be back channeled through Israel and I expect it could very well be. Of course Derby is also a possible path. When you are an international "out" you tend to seek out your fellows and make arrangements to help each other.
 
AIM-120 can't be used on IDF for the very same reason. The ROCAF doesn't want to pay for AIM-120 integration, yet. 

CREF above.
 
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