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Subject: The fall out from the MMRCA India comp.
jessmo_24    5/2/2011 4:56:33 PM
I find this very interesting since in some cases this was the last chance for some bidders to secure there type in the market place. What does this mean for The Boeing F-18, MIg, and The F-16? whats does this mean for new and emerging relation ships? walk with me as I use my astute arm chair analysts powers to examine this.
 
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MK       5/2/2011 5:06:16 PM
I don't think that it will have major implications on the Indo-US relationship.Both the F-16 and SH will soldier on for quite some time, new built F-16s are still being delivered though the failure of winning this deal might mean that the production can not be extended and that the future development will be more limited with no new customers, but there will be developments to keep the aircraft viable as there are still a lot of relatively new customers for the F-16 for example and the Super Hornet isn't old either. There are yet some chances for the SH on the international market, the opportunities for the F-16 look somewhat slimmer IMHO. There are still some small countries with limited budgets which may opt for less advanced F-16s nonetheless (less advanced than the blk 60).
 
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jessmo_24       5/2/2011 5:24:47 PM
1. Mig, Russia and the Mig-35:
 
While I don't see long turn souring of the Russian-India relationship, the honeymoon is  over.
There are reports coming out that The Russian Mig-35 was never even a serious contendor.
 When you add this up with the recent article on the India being fed up with Russian price gouging and releasign a tender for spare parts contracts the writing is on the wall.
 
*ttp://www.rediff.com/news/slide-show/slide-show-1-ashley-tellis-on-why-india-should-not-opt-for-russian-mig35/20110214.htm
 
ziz Haniffa in Washington, DC

For heaven's sake, ultimately whichever aircraft you finally choose, please, please do not buy the Russian MiG-35 is the plea from strategic affairs expert Ashley Tellis to the government of India with regard to the $11 billion deal for 126 Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft that the European, Russian and American manufacturers are vying for.

Both in his report released recently titled 'Dogfight! India's Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft Decision,' and during the interaction that followed its release, Tellis -- Senior Associate with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace -- pilloried the Russian aircraft saying it was the "weakest of the contenders".

"It does not have the sensor suites that the Indian Air Force would like to see," he said, adding, "It brings no new weapons to the game from an Indian Air Force point of view."
 
India will not be taken for granted anymore by the Russians.
 
As far as mig goes, unless a new mass market design appears fast, they are done! The glory days of Mig are gone.
 Mig will dissapear for ever in the heap of the new Russian joint stock company. How the former King of Russian fighter aircraft got into this situation is beyond my under standing. And Im not sure that even if they did come up with a revolutionary design That it would be allowed to compete with a Sukkoi design.
 
Will discuss more after work.
 
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MK       5/3/2011 6:03:02 AM
Sukhoi had a greater political influence than MiG which helped it after the collaps of the USSR and the Su-27 family was selling well, unlike the MiG-29 family. This allowed Sukhoi to survive and to be in a much better state than RSK MiG today. I agree that the glory days of MiG are over and the future of the MiG-29 family looks rather slim.
 
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jessmo_24       5/3/2011 1:53:35 PM
2 Lockheed:
 
I truly believe that this was the last try for the venerable F-16. The plane has had a nice run but this is  the end of the line for the 30 year old design. The thing that bothers me the most about Lockheed is this.
 
A. If Lockheed had followed the original production schedule on the F-35 they would most likely have a contract winner. As it stands now The F-35 will arrive out of the MMRCAs time frame. This is a HUGE error in project management on part of Lockheed.
B. The F-35 is far enough an advance over other designs that India might have even  compromised on work share and tech transfer to get it. You can get VLO, jamming, deep strike, high end A2A out of the box in 1 platform.
 There is a lesson to be learned here for Lockheed. If your going to bet the farm on a design, don't  get arrogant and sloppy in the process. I watched the F-35 battle of the X-planes documentary and it was noted that Government officials during the X-plane contest slapped LM on the wrist for accounting mismanagement. Again I say, pure arrogance.


 
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MK       5/3/2011 3:18:41 PM
The MMRCA is about more than just the platform and I'm not to sure whether the Indians would have selected even if it would have been available now. The Indians want some gains for their own industry and I just don't see the US being keen to do this wrt the F-35. There were already many constraints for the F-16 and F/A-18, imagine the F-35 which is a much more complex and advanced aircraft...
 
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mabie       5/4/2011 4:58:22 AM

The MMRCA is about more than just the platform and I'm not to sure whether the Indians would have selected even if it would have been available now. The Indians want some gains for their own industry and I just don't see the US being keen to do this wrt the F-35. There were already many constraints for the F-16 and F/A-18, imagine the F-35 which is a much more complex and advanced aircraft...
The Indians have rebuffed feelers from Washington for them to become involved in the F-35 program. Perhaps they think that one Gen5 program is sufficient for their needs and its going to be Russian.

 
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