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Subject: F-35 may be dropped as Japan's next fighter
maruben    5/20/2011 12:30:15 PM
F-35 may be dropped as Japan's next fighter Kyodo WASHINGTON — The F-35 stealth jet could be dropped from the list of potential candidates for Japan's next-generation fighter because lengthy delays have cropped up in its development, according to diplomatic and defense sources. Instead, the F/A-18 Super Hornet is expected to be picked to replace Japan's F-15 Eagle fleet, the sources said Thursday. The F-35 Lightning 2 stealth fighter has long been considered the front-runner. Michael Gilmore, director of operational test and evaluation at the U.S. Department of Defense, told the Senate Armed Services Committee that operational testing of the F-35 will begin in spring 2017. That's far outside Japan's goal for taking delivery of its next mainstay fighter by March 2017, which means the F-35 faces being dropped. Japan has expressed serious interest in the F-35, F/A-18 and the European-designed Eurofighter Typhoon. The Defense Ministry and Self-Defense Forces, which place importance on coordination with U.S. forces, could pick the F/A-18 Super Hornet strike fighter, the sources said. In his testimony to the Senate committee, Gilmore said the Pentagon launched a full review of the F-35 development program in 2010 due to a sharp delay and a boost in production costs. Gilmore also hinted at further delays, saying there are many more challenges to be cleared before operational testing can commence. In April, Tokyo narrowed down its selection to three choices — the F-35, F/A-18 and Eurofighter. At that time, the government briefed developers about the capabilities and specifications Japan is looking for in the new fighter. The Defense Ministry is expected to make a selection by the end of this year after receiving proposals from the manufacturers of the three aircraft by late September. The new aircraft will replace the F-15, developed by McDonnell Douglas, now part of Boeing Co., as Japan's mainstay fighter and will also replace the aging fleet of F-4 Phantoms, which will be decommissioned. The U.S. government says the delay in the F-35 development program mainly stems from problems in its operating software program and the aircraft's vertical takeoff and landing capabilities for the U.S. Marine Corps. The U.S. armed forces plan to procure more than 2,400 of the fighters for $112 million (about ¥9.14 billion) each, a twofold increase from the estimated price in 2001, according to the U.S. Government Accountability Office, the investigative arm of Congress. The single-seat and single-engine F-35 is currently under development mainly by major defense contractor Lockheed Martin Corp. The F-35, which features stealth capability, is to be a multipurpose fighter capable of air support, tactical bombing and air defense missions. The F-35 is being jointly developed by the United States, Britain, Italy, the Netherlands, Australia, Canada, Denmark, Turkey Norway, Israel and Singapore. Lockheed Martin is the main developer. The F/A-18 Super Hornet strike fighter, developed by McDonnell Douglas, is a twin-engine multipurpose fighter that can be based on aircraft carriers. Earlier, Japan expressed hope for acquiring the F-22 Raptor stealth fighter developed jointly by Lockheed Martin and Boeing, but the United States dashed that notion by banning its export and by terminating the F-22 program itself. The Japan Times: Saturday, May 21, 2011 (C) All rights reserved It's a sad news but the F-18 is a wise purchase and that is what we can really afford under the present circumstances. We can not wait the F-35. Here the discussion should be: Can the F-18 deal with the Flankers as strike fighter, as interceptor and specially as air superiority fighter? I hope the answer is yes, but I am little nervous. Domestically there was the attempt to get more F-2 but our men in uniform did not want it. I expect to see the pruchase of about 100 F-18s. Sayonara
 
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maruben       5/20/2011 12:37:28 PM
Other point that needs to be discussed is why no more F-15? Currently the F-18 is better than F-15?
Can the F-15 carry antiship missile? If the answer is NO then that should be the reason why the F-18 was selected.
But that is only my best guess.
 
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MK       5/20/2011 2:33:25 PM
The F-15 can carry the Harpoon. Maybe the JASDF is not so keen in operating yet another knock off of the F-15, with possibly no other customers for a Silent Eagle variant. The Super Hornet is without doubt cheaper and will serve with the USN for quite some time to come. It's thus a safer bet for the JASDF. And who knows, maybe Japan wasn't willed to allow for to competing designs from the same manufacturer as this would have been unfair to the other contenders, but who knows. Just my 2ct
 
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Slim Pickinz    Thinking ahead?   5/20/2011 10:09:11 PM
How is the JASDF going to deal with 5th generation aircraft like the T-50 and J-20 when they (eventually) become operational? The Shornet is a very capable fighter today, but how will it stack up in the 2020s against much more modern and stealthy designs? How is it going to fare against S-400/S-500 class anti-aircraft systems that China could possibly develop and deploy in the future?
 
Will Japan conduct another fighter competition later in the decade when the F-35 program has matured?
 
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gf0012-aust       5/20/2011 10:54:19 PM
the problem for japan has been politically defined.

1) they didn't get in with the  early adopters
2) they didn't come in with the Level 3 partners
3) 1&2 means that they can only get aircraft are the original 3+8+2 secure their orders
4) they can only break pt 3 if any of the partners allow their slots to be given up or abandon their buys
5) none are giving up, and those that are considering deferment have small slots anyway - so japan couldnt get the volume slots that she would want anyway

she left it too late and is now paying the price for it. 

its got little to do with aircraft availability - thats a face saving argument 
 
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MK       5/21/2011 5:54:09 AM

4) they can only break pt 3 if any of the partners allow their slots to be given up or abandon their buys
 
5) none are giving up, and those that are considering deferment have small slots anyway - so japan couldnt get the volume slots that she would want anyway


With customers scaling back numbers or at least delaying and spreading their purchases I think there should be no issue to increase production rates for Japan. The F-35 production line is designed to handle far greater number of aircraft than it's done now and in the near future. 
 
I wonder why they sent a RFP anyway, it's not exactly news that the F-35 is hardly available on time, it never was for the JASDF anyway. I think the JASDF will settle with one of the other types to replace the F-4EJ and will possibly seek opportunities to get some work for its own aerospace industry. The F-35 will likely be reconsidered, possibly even without competition, when it comes to the F-15 replacement at a later point in time.
 
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gf0012-aust       5/21/2011 6:14:59 AM

With customers scaling back numbers or at least delaying and spreading their purchases I think there should be no issue to increase production rates for Japan. The F-35 production line is designed to handle far greater number of aircraft than it's done now and in the near future. 

 there's no scale back though - the only ones identified are the RN jumpers, all others are maintaining numbers even if they defer. and there are no deferrals either.  ie no one has officially pulled anything and a lot of the noise has been more about domestic politics than about procurement

even pulling the RN jumpers is  not going to cause problems as both israel and singpore are sitting in the queue 

I wonder why they sent a RFP anyway, it's not exactly news that the F-35 is hardly available on time, it never was for the JASDF anyway. I think the JASDF will settle with one of the other types to replace the F-4EJ and will possibly seek opportunities to get some work for its own aerospace industry. The F-35 will likely be reconsidered, possibly even without competition, when it comes to the F-15 replacement at a later point in time.

I suspect that they've done what the indians have done, ie requested as much data as possible as an extension of assessing capabilities that aren't necessarily tied to the actual procurement requirement.

I'd expect  JSF to take a slide after whats happened with natural disasters, but it might not have as much impact as they're realising that the facade of china appearing benign in the region is just that - a facade

if I was going to "do a nostradamus"  I'd be betting they will be getting back into the carrier business - even if its just as pretend ASW destroyers...
 
 

 
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MK       5/21/2011 6:29:31 AM

there's no scale back though - the only ones identified are the RN jumpers, all others are maintaining numbers even if they defer. and there are no deferrals either.  ie no one has officially pulled anything and a lot of the noise has been more about domestic politics than about procurement


Not necessarily a scale back wrt total numbers, but many partners appear to spread their planned buy over a longer period, meaning that the annual production rates are lower. Remember that the original plan called for a production run until 2027 for domestic (US) use, it has now been extended to 2036! Ongoing delays in the programme are certainly part of it. 
There might be a fair margin in production capacity to satisfy demands of additional export customers such as Japan.
 
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gf0012-aust       5/21/2011 7:28:45 AM
There might be a fair margin in production capacity to satisfy demands of additional export customers such as Japan. 

except that the israelis and singaporeans are first in the queue on options... I can't see the israelis giving up potential slots for japan, and neither will the sings as they are far more focused on their vision of NCW and fused force constrructs...

you'd be aware of how tight the israelis and sings are when it comes to NCW and nnn-INT.  JSF is part of the picture for both of them.  Both are ahead of the japanese at the future force construct level and they won't be wating for anyone. I imagine that the Israelis will be quietly rejoicing at the opportunity to pick up jumper slots - assuming that RAF does not replace the jumpers with an increased run on the CTOLs

for all the doom and gloom thats regularly trotted out about the JSF, the reality is that none are cancelled, maybe 2 will defer, but other countries like Aust because of planning and procurement models (contingency models) will be better off.

Japan left their run too late.  bad strategic planning and overplaying the F-22 indignant card. 

 
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MK       5/21/2011 11:53:41 AM
Singapore released any possible time lines? Up to date I have seen no information about this, there are not even any orders at all.
 
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Reactive       5/21/2011 3:19:57 PM
@ GF,
 
Do you see any possibility of the Japanese buying the Typhoon rather than SH for the Eagle replacement, especially if MRCA goes favourably for the EF consortium?
 
R
 
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