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Subject: Can Turkey defeat THE IAF?
jessmo_24    9/5/2011 6:01:02 PM
*ttp://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4117280,00.html Turkey to challenge Gaza blockade at ICJ Crisis with Turkey: FM Ahmet Davutoglu says Ankara doesn't recognize Gaza blockade, prepares to take matter to International Court of Justice; dismisses Palmer Report conclusion that siege is legal. Meanwhile, Turkish paper reports Turkey planning to boost naval presence in Mediterranean Sea AP and Ynet Published: 09.03.11, 17:44 / Israel News share Turkey is preparing to challenge Israel's blockade on Gaza at the International Court of Justice, the foreign minister said Saturday, ratcheting up tensions between the once close allies. Ahmet Davutoglu's comments came a day after Turkey expelled the Israeli ambassador and severed military ties with the country angered over its refusal to apologize for last year's deadly raid on a Gaza-bound aid flotilla that killed nine pro-Palestinian activists. Crisis with Turkey: Op-ed: Turkey left an opening 'No use of excessive force' 'Turkey not interested in restoring ties' Israel insists it won't apologize to Turkey In an interview with Turkey's state-run TRT television, Davutoglu dismissed a UN report into the raid that said Israel's naval blockade of Gaza was a legal security measure. Davutoglu said the report - prepared by former New Zealand Prime Minister Geoffrey Palmer, and former Colombian President Alvaro Uribe, and presented to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon - was not endorsed by the United Nations and was therefore not binding. Ahmet Davutoglu. Heading to The Hague? (Photo: AFP) "What is binding is the International Court of Justice," Davutoglu said. "This is what we are saying: let the International Court of Justice decide." "We are starting the necessary legal procedures this coming week," he said. The minister said the UN report released Friday contradicted an earlier report on the Gaza flotilla incident which found that Israeli forces violated international law when they raided the flotilla. That report was prepared in September by three human rights experts appointed by the UN's top human rights body. Davutoglu also warned Israel that it risks alienation among Arab nations by resisting an apology. "If Israel persists with its current position, the Arab spring will give rise to a strong Israel opposition as well as the debate on the authoritarian regimes," he said discuss
 
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VelocityVector    Can Turkey Defeat the IAF?   9/6/2011 8:46:44 PM
No, almost certainly not.  Lawyers be damned.  Israeli intelligence has likely penetrated all levels of the Turkish military.  There would be no surprises and the Israelis have the equipment to prevail given advance notice.  Also, there are reliable reports that suggest Israel is a nuclear power and Israel has its back against the wall.  Consider.
 
As for the website, swell Lysol commercials that play auto -- now blocked -- thanks for tipping hand at yet another product line and its company from which I will not buy going forward.  I have so many other choices after all.
 
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LB    No   9/7/2011 6:22:15 AM
No Turkey's 300 or so F-16 and F-4's are not going to defeat the IAF and their 400 or so F-15 and F-16's.  The IAF is better trained, led, and equipped.
 
Frankly both sides would be challenged "defeating" the other.  The closest Turkish air base to Israel is Incirlik with around 5,000 US military so Israel can't exactly start rolling back the Turkish Air Force.
 
While both sides can conduct strikes against the other neither would be able to project significant ground forces into the other and thus neither can truly defeat the other.  Both sides would also be challenged operating naval forces near the others shores given both nations air forces and significant naval patrol capacity, of course around half of Turkey's unmanned systems are Israeli.
 
Frankly Turkey can posture all it wants but it's not realistic for them to start a military conflict.  Even if they send warships to escort some convoy to Gaza exactly how do they respond to Israeli forces attempting to stop that convoy?  What do they do if their ships are struck or sunk?  Air cover near Israel is a losing proposition in the face of the IAF operating near their own bases.  Attempting strikes against Israel itself will cost the Turkish Air Force heavily for little gain.
 
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Reactive       9/7/2011 9:26:23 AM
And the fact that this discussion has even become plausible, if unlikely, is a good enough reason for the west to swiftly halt any transfers of military technology to Turkey before Erdogan completes his ambition of undermining secularism and turning Turkey into a belligerent theocratic hellhole.
 
He's half way there.
 
 
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Eliendhal       9/7/2011 10:27:24 PM
Reactive wrote : 
"And the fact that this discussion has even become plausible, if unlikely, is a good enough reason for the west to swiftly halt any transfers of military technology to Turkey"
 
... interesting . I would like to know more , why do you say that ?
Do you see Turkey as an enemy of the West or do you have other reason(s) ?
I am asking because on a pure legal ground , the Turks have a case . Also , why the West would not turn things around and say : "is a good enough reason for the west to swiftly halt any transfers of military technology to Israel"
Just asking because as a European , Turkey is across the street and so far , the Turks have been good allies in recent years while not being part of Europe while Israel , well ...
I am a bit cynical here I admit , but on the Geopolitical chessboard , Turkey is very useful to Europe .
Personaly , wrt the israeli raid in international waters , it was wrong .
 
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phrank       9/8/2011 12:02:08 AM
The country that might start a war here is not Israel. The UN said they have a right to there blockade so that leaves Turkey pushing this to the point of a war if that happens. If Turkey pushes this to war and the US and Europe side with Israel then the government of Turkey will have the proof that they are not really part of Europe and that they are a Muslin country. Maybe that's what the  current government wants
 
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Reactive       9/8/2011 3:28:34 AM
^^^ Above post hits the nail on the head.
 
Actually Eliendhal, I disagree - If you know people in istanbul you will know just how swiftly the secular principles that have underpinned Turkey are being fast eroded by Islamist Erdogan.
 
As above, the flotilla was breaking an Israeli blockade that is there for good reason, if you've ever met or known anyone who is even loosely supportive of Hamas you will know what sort of people they are - Israel borded because to do otherwise would break the blockade that it maintains safeguards its troops from the would-be genocidal maniacs who control Gaza -  their troops were attacked and were in mortal danger, and suffered significant wounding - one was thrown off a gantry, they were not expecting the degree of resistance that they faced and as a result they shot a bunch of the attackers.  
 
The UN has found in favour of Israel, which is unusual in itself - and while we know that Israel is an excellent customer to the West, as well as an open and free society in comparison to ALL of its neighbours, we can see Turkey slipping into anIslamist identity that relishes the chance to use the Palestinians, as all Arab governments do, to direct attention outwards to the easy target (Israel).  
 
The fact that so many Europeans are vehemently anti-israeli is just part of that propoganda machine that ignores far bigger humanitarian problems in the middle east, including those that TURKEY is involved in persecuting in favour of using the Jews as an age-old scapegoat - Israel was RIGHT to board that ship because unlike FRANCE they live in a region where the vast majority of their neighbours would quite happily see every man woman and child killed, for that reason they don't have the luxury of playing the a global PR game, they live with an existential threat and the fact that Turkey is joining that threat should at least be cause for concern. 
 
A lot of Europeans especially feel that Israel is the biggest issue in the middle east, the only issue that israel presents is in actually existing in the first place, that is unacceptable to the majority of muslims in the ME and a lot of those people in Europe whose parents and grandparents were only too happy to turn in Jews for the ghettos - I am not suggesting that anyone who criticises Israel is a Nazi or even an Anti-Semite by any means but it is fair to say that the Jews have always presented a very tempting scapegoat, one that Turkey is now exploiting to further its agenda of ridding that nation of its last vestiges of secularism.
 
And that road leads to Iran, if you are asking me to choose between Israel and Turkey on an ideological basis I would unhesitatingly choose Israel, having known plenty from both nations - and in in the last couple of years having seen what is happening in Turkey and where that will eventually lead, yes, unquestionably I'd choose the state that has punched so far above its weight in terms of technology that it is ahead of those with populations hundreds of times greater, a state that respects women as equals and a state that has the means to dominate at will yet remains far more restrained than any of the hypocritical hand-wringing European states would do if faced with even a fraction of daily menace Israel faces.
 
I am opposed to religious fundamentalism, Christian, Muslim or Jew is not so relevant, what is relevant is how much impact religion has on the running of a state - when you hear a country like Turkey making the noises it is you can certainly see that it will in time be no friend of the West.
 
 
 
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LB    Irony   9/8/2011 6:31:39 AM
It's rather ironic that much of the discussion across the web about this portrays the struggle between Turkey and Iran to lead the Arab world.  Arabs have a very long history hating the Turks and Persians and/or being subjugated by them.  Not to mention the small matter of most of the Arab world being Sunni and Iran is Shia.
 
Personally I've never seen Iran as a serious threat to "lead" the Arab world nor do I see Turkey being able to do so.  Thus the whole Iran or Turkey construct seems false and one can be left with the view it's entirely about domestic Turkish politics.
 
It's also not clear to me that Turkey can accept the same definition of "winning" vs Israel that the Arabs seem to have rationalized.  In Arab terms not being entirely defeated has come to mean winning.  Witness Egypt "winning" the 1973 war, Hezbollah vs Israel, Iraq after the Gulf War, etc.  Turkey has a long and proud military history and it's soldiers were extremely highly regarded during the Korean War which has partially contributed to Turkey's close relationship today with South Korea.
 
Thus without any data one way or the other it would seem, based on historical expectations, that the Turkish public would want to achieve something vs Israel in a military conflict and given Turkey has little prospect of imposing their will it would seem an actual conflict would backfire politically.  It would be interesting to know if Turkey's leaders have the same perspective on an inability to "win" vs Israel?
 
 
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Eliendhal       9/8/2011 12:58:16 PM
Reactive :
"Actually Eliendhal, I disagree - If you know people in istanbul you will know just how swiftly the secular principles that have underpinned Turkey are being fast eroded by Islamist Erdogan."
 
I know Istambul and Ankara , I have some Turk friends and I can tell you that you are exagerating the islamic impact on Turkey . First , the Christian community in Turkey is substancial and when you ask a young Turk what he/she wants for his/her futur , he/she 'll tell you Democracy and non religious GoV and this is a fact . They really want to live the way we do in the West .
On Turkey 's beaches , you can see topless girls and that tells a lot you must admit .
 
You wrote :
"The fact that so many Europeans are vehemently anti-israeli"
 
Where did you get that feeling ? This is untrue to start with . You should say :" many Europeans don 't like the way Israel behave" , that would be closer to the truth .
Anyway , Turkey is not going to declare war to Israel , that 's for sure .
 
You also said  :
"the only issue that israel presents is in actually existing in the first place"
 
I don 't think so but the problem is very simple , a clever 12 year old kid could understand the situation at hand : Israel is too small for the Israelis and they need more land to accomodate the growing population . Unless you tell them "one child only per family" ~which is unnaceptable~ the population will still grow . So , what should they do (the Israelis) ?
 
The most obvious and most honest thing to do is to buy more land from comprehensive neighbours and not taking it by force . Unfortunatly , the Middle East is not a "rosy" World . I for one believe that War is inevitable in the next 25 years or so .
I am pretty sure that if Israel wanted to spend billions $ to get more land , a clever and peaceful deal under the UN eye would be possible . Maybe I am only dreaming but I like my dream .
 
You wrote :
"I am not suggesting that anyone who criticises Israel is a Nazi or even an Anti-Semite by any means"
 
Very good , it is noted .
 
You said :
"Israel was RIGHT to board that ship because unlike FRANCE they live in a region where the vast majority of their neighbours would quite happily see every man woman and child killed, for that reason they don't have the luxury of playing the a global PR game, they live with an existential threat"
 
No , Israel was WRONG . They indeed live in a dangerous place but they still have to follow international Laws at Sea , like we all do . We can all understand why they did it but wrt the law , it was an act of piratry at the very best and an act of war in absolute since it was a military operation . Turkey has a case .
 
Mr LB , you wrote :
"It would be interesting to know if Turkey's leaders have the same perspective on an inability to "win" vs Israel ?"
 
Personaly , I think that Turkey has the mean and the power to drive through Syria , bullying around the Syrians on the way and blockade Israel from the land as well as from the sea .
 
 
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LB       9/8/2011 3:31:18 PM
That's an interesting belief.  Would you care to take a look at the road and rail links, the numbers of available heavy trucks and tank transporters, etc?
 
What is Turkey going to do by "blockading" Israel from Syria?  Or are they also going through Jordan?
 
Along this merry route which Syrian air bases will Turkey be using to protect it's forces from the IAF?
 
Turkey attacking Israel through Syria and/or Lebanon with a large army is less than realistic and that would include the full cooperation of both.
 

Mr LB , you wrote :
"It would be interesting to know if Turkey's leaders have the same perspective on an inability to "win" vs Israel ?"
 
Personaly , I think that Turkey has the mean and the power to drive through Syria , bullying around the Syrians on the way and blockade Israel from the land as well as from the sea .
 

 
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phrank       9/8/2011 3:37:32 PM
What is the difference between the Palestinians and the Kurds? I mean they are both peoples that are fighting for a homeland right? They are both using terror to get what they want. As for what the people of Turkey want vs what the political leaders of Turkey want not sure what the people wants matters to them other then there base. Iran started out with hope but what they did was exchange one dictator for a religious dictatorship. The people of that region better wake up and hold there own governments to account because Israel is not holding every country over there back from being great. I hope that a day come where the Palestinians have there own country and freedom. I would like to see the same for the Kurdish people as well.  
 
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