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Subject: Hellfire For Lebanon
SYSOP    10/21/2014 5:49:19 AM
 
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trenchsol       10/21/2014 7:50:35 AM
There seems to be a little doubt if Hezbollah infiltrated Lebanese Army or not. I can't say how deep or to which level of command it goes. Considering possibility of Lebanese Army to disarm Hezbollah, well, I don't think it is going to happen anytime soon.
 
Total Hezbollah manpower and structure is not know, estimates go from  10000 to 30000, with about 25% or less full time soldiers. Also, the dividing line between Hezbollah and Iranian special forces is blurred. Iran invested decades of efforts into Hezbollah. If disarmament becomes an option, they will step in. I don't know which form the Iranian response might take, more open one or more covert.
 
There are people from Israel on this board, they should know more.
 
 
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Nate Dog    Hezbollah more vulnerable than ever   10/21/2014 6:16:30 PM
Doesn't mean they're about to fold and collapse but their situation is precarious.
The intervention in Syria is a necessity for Hezbollah, if they are to keep a line of communication open with Iran. hence their intervention. If Shia lose power in Syria, then Iran can't re-enforce Hezbollah. They control the south of Lebanon and the parliament, but thats only by dint of intervention by the Syrian regime on numerous occasions, most recently in the mid 2000's. Lebanese officials opposed to Iranian/Syrian intervention were assassinated, leaving a power vacuum Hezb jumped into. 
Sea lanes are almost certainly closed to them, Israeli intel has proliferated its abilities of late, coupled with Israel's maritime investments, naval resupply is almost impossible. So, if Assaad holds in Syria and manages to re-establish full control, or as near as he can, then look for Hezbollah to maintain its authority, or even gain full control over Lebanon.
Should Assaad fall, and Sunni take charge of Syria, then Israel is likely to pick a war from which Hezbollah will not recover, and the Lebanese army has a chance to route them. They'll remain a thorn, revert to pure clandestine terrorism, but won't be the overriding force they are today. 
All depends on the Syrian outcome i guess.
My 2 cents. 
 
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trenchsol       10/21/2014 7:31:40 PM
@Nate Dog
 
Correct, Hezbollah disarmament seems depend on end of Assad in Syria. Number of Hezbollah operators in Syria is unknown, estimates go from 1000 - 4000. That means 10% - 20% of Hezbollah total strength, not more, although probably the best units. Still plenty of them left at home.
 
Lebanese Army does not need to fold or collapse. Stalemate is also a failure, if Hezbollah keeps the equipment. End of Assad is not in sight, at the moment he is almost an ally. As I posted last week, Iran benefits the most from IS caused chaos. 
It looks to me that purpose of those weapons shipments is more a political one, to prevent Lebanese Army from falling under Hezbollah control.
 
 
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WarNerd       10/22/2014 12:39:10 AM
Iran is threatening to fire long range missiles at Israel if Assad is attacked by the Coalition, but would have to call on Hezbollah to join in to make a serious attack.  If that happens Israel will counterattack into southern Lebanon.  Hezbollah will fight until they are in danger of being but off then attempt to retreat north, same as last time.  Wouldn’t be a shame if the Lebanese Army was in position to play anvil to the Israeli hammer by blocking that retreat?
 
Anyone want to bet that this hasn’t been discussed at the inter-governmental level?
 
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trenchsol       10/22/2014 8:03:02 AM
@Warnerd
 
Did you mean 2006 war ? I was never able to find out if Hezbollah managed to retreat from south before Israel sealed the corridor between their border and Litani river. I took them longer than they (Israel) expected, and when they did, ceasefire took place immediately. So I never found out what really happened.
 
 
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