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Subject: China hegemony jeopardises Asia
Softwar    12/17/2007 9:27:51 AM
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20071216/wl_asia_afp/vietnamprotestchinaspratlysparacels_071216081528 Anti-China protesters Sunday rallied in Vietnam over disputed islands but were kept away by police from Bejing's diplomatic missions after a protest last week sparked a rebuke from China. Several hundred demonstrators in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City marched in the long-simmering dispute over the Spratly and Paracel archipelagos in the South China Sea, which are claimed by China, Vietnam and other regional countries. Police prevented about 300 demonstrators in the capital and around 100 in the southern port city formerly called Saigon from protesting outside the embassy and consulate of Vietnam's northern neighbour and communist ally. Similar noisy but peaceful rallies on December 9, which supported Vietnam's official territorial claims, were tolerated by police for about one hour, triggering a diplomatic protest from Beijing two days later. "We are highly concerned over the matter," said China's foreign ministry after the first protest. "We hope the Vietnamese government will take a responsible attitude and effective measures to stop this and prevent bilateral ties from being hurt." In the latest rally, groups of demonstrators marched through Hanoi, waving flags, shouting anti-China slogans and singing patriotic songs. Most of the protesters wore identical T-shirts with the red-and-gold Vietnamese flag, a map of Vietnam that included the islands, and the words "China hegemony jeopardises Asia" and "Beware of the invasion." In Ho Chi Minh City around 100 demonstrators were rallying at a park near the Chinese consulate, holding up signs that read "Hands off Vietnam," "Vietnam: United We Stand" and "Stop Chinese Expansion." The two archipelagos -- called Truong Sa (Spratlys) and Hoang Sa (Paracels) in Vietnamese --- are considered strategic outposts in the South China Sea, have potential oil and gas reserves and rich fishing grounds. The Spratlys, more than 100 islets, reefs and atolls, are claimed in full or part by China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan. The Paracels -- which Chinese troops took from South Vietnamese forces in 1974 -- are also claimed by Vietnam and Taiwan. The disputes stir strong passions in Vietnam, which remembers a millennium of Chinese rule and fought its last border war with China in 1979. A naval clash in 1998 near one of the Spratlys killed more than 50 Vietnamese sailors. The street protests started on December 9 after China set up a county-level government unit which covers 2.6 million square kilometres (1 million square miles), mostly ocean, including the disputed isles. The issue has been hotly debated on blogs in Vietnam, and Vietnamese hackers have defaced at least one Chinese government website. The islands have been flashpoints for years, and the number of disputes has risen as declining fish stocks have forced fishing crews from Vietnam and elsewhere to sail deeper into disputed waters. In July a Chinese naval vessel fired at a Vietnamese fishing boat near the Spratlys, sinking the boat and killing one sailor, reports said. Vietnam expert Carl Thayer said China was pursuing "a policy of creeping assertiveness" in the region, which conflicts with Vietnam's maritime strategy of maximising the development of its offshore resources by 2020. "Chinese naval vessels have reportedly fired on Vietnamese fishing boats," said Thayer, of the Australian Defence Force Academy. Beijing had also pressured oil company British Petroleum to stop developing an area off southern Vietnam, he said. "China has the upper hand because it can threaten the interests of foreign companies who operate in both China and Vietnam," he told AFP. Thayer, a veteran Vietnam watcher, said public rallies in Vietnam critical of China are "unprecedented and may represent the first step in a prolonged information campaign to win over international sympathy and support."
 
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AdvanceAustralia       12/17/2007 12:26:44 PM
Great to hear Doc Thayer is alive and well and still at ADFA!

I wonder who initiated these rallies? A government department or a political body? It's good to see the Vietnamese protesting Chinese hegemony. They would have good reason to be part of a future containment of the PRC.

Cheers.

 
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Softwar       12/17/2007 3:18:12 PM
Once again the policy makers inside PLA HQ and the CCP have cut their own throats.  While they might see advantage today - in a world were each Asian state they are dictating to is not linked to other states and thus acting alone they can be dominated - the PRC is creating a solid front of independent nations whose single uniting factor is to contain the PRC and its territorial ambitions.  India, Vietnam, Australia, U.S., Japan, South Korea, Philippines and Taiwan all have a reason to want Beijing to remain in a box. 
 
The more they grab they less they will grasp.
 
While others predict a century dominated by China - I and a bunch of the China-watchers here - predict a fall and upheaval of massive proportions is coming.
 
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AdvanceAustralia       12/17/2007 3:34:50 PM
The bigger they are the harder they fall.
 
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Zhang Fei       12/17/2007 5:27:21 PM
SW: While they might see advantage today - in a world were each Asian state they are dictating to is not linked to other states and thus acting alone they can be dominated - the PRC is creating a solid front of independent nations whose single uniting factor is to contain the PRC and its territorial ambitions.

I think this assessment is overly optimistic about the ability of the states on China's borders to coalesce in coalitions to resist Chinese power. The Chinese empire's
enduring strength has been its ability to pick off its targets one at a time, persuading other states in the region that any war it chooses to wage is purely a local one.
 
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YelliChink       12/17/2007 6:16:08 PM


I think this assessment is overly optimistic about the ability of the states on China's borders to coalesce in coalitions to resist Chinese power. The Chinese empire's
enduring strength has been its ability to pick off its targets one at a time, persuading other states in the region that any war it chooses to wage is purely a local one.


Not quite so.
 
For example, the situation of Ming Dynasty is that it faces Mongols in the north, Tibetans in the West, Pirates in the East and had some trouble with Vietnamese. Ming foreign policy was never able to break Tibetan-Mongol alliance, and any military victories in the north is short lived due to the pressure it felt on both side. In the south, Vietnamese fended off Ming intervention so successfully, Ming didn't even bother to get involved twice. Manchus pretty much took advantage of Manchu-Mongol alliances to maximum advantage. Although age old strategy tells emperors to do so, the actual ability to isolate an opponent varies from time to time. In Chinese, an old saying puts: "Professional in internal struggle, total amateur in external struggle." It doesn't come out from no where.
 
Chinese empire's enduring strength does not exist. All dynasty falls, either to foreign invaders, warlords, usurpers or implosion. We'll see how Red Dynasty ends.
 
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Nanheyangrouchuan       12/17/2007 7:20:31 PM
Then we can enact my plan to peacefully deconstruct China.
 
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Blue Seadragon       12/18/2007 1:35:54 PM
Nonsense.
 
Utter nonsense.
 
The only way to "peacefully deconstruct China" would be for CCP to decide to do it - emulating other communist parties which transitioned - or the KMT in ROC. 
 
You can have no realistic plan to deconstruct China.  And it is not in our interests to be seen as hostile to Chinese interests.  China is a great power.  China is a great nuclear power.  We need to draw some lines about behaviors - maybe even fight a Cold or Hot war - but we need to be seen as reasonable - not as hostile to China's existence as a nation.  It would mean many things Chinese hotheads say were really true if we were to behave so badly.
 
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