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Subject: Effect on embargo of oil to China will not work
YelliChink    1/31/2008 12:18:13 PM
This is a common myth that PRC will succombed in the face of an oil embargo. Not gonna happen. PRC still pumps about more than 50% of oil it consumed, and commies know that it is civilian sector of the country that are reliant on imported oil. China has largest coal reserve in the world, and they can, and they know how to, make petroleum from coal. They are also building, or proposing, oil pipes in Burma, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran. They tried to persuade Russians to build a pipe for them, but Russians have other calculations, though there is no difficulty in it. The Achilles' heel of PRC is not oil.
 
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displacedjim       1/31/2008 2:23:15 PM

This is a common myth that PRC will succombed in the face of an oil embargo. Not gonna happen. PRC still pumps about more than 50% of oil it consumed, and commies know that it is civilian sector of the country that are reliant on imported oil. China has largest coal reserve in the world, and they can, and they know how to, make petroleum from coal. They are also building, or proposing, oil pipes in Burma, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran. They tried to persuade Russians to build a pipe for them, but Russians have other calculations, though there is no difficulty in it. The Achilles' heel of PRC is not oil.


Well, if this is as part of some full-scale war scenario, consider also that Chinese military consumption would spike upward a great deal above standard peacetime consumption.  And if we're imposing an embargo by force of arms, then how much domestic production could we stop as well?  Is any of it from off-shore drilling that perhaps could be halted by force?  If we are actually shooting at each other, then are there a few major nodes in the oil production network that we might attack?  A reduction of nearly 50% by interdicting imports, combined with a large increase in military consumption, and possibly additional cuts through military action against domestic production, would leave precious little for their civilian sector or even just their military.  The other sources you mention sound like future, not current, sources, so they sound like maybe they can't be relied upon today.  It seems like an oil embargo could have a pretty serious impact on at least their economy, and even their war-fighting in some sort of longer (a month or more) war.  But this isn't my area so I'm not sure.
 
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Softwar       2/1/2008 8:54:56 AM
Jim paints a pretty clear and clean senario. 
 
An oil embargo or blockade would not only cripple the Chinese economy - it is the PLA's achilles heel.  No fuel leaves jets grounded, tanks inmobile and missiles vulnerable.  An embargo combined with hostilities would be devastating.  The main nodes of attack would be on the refinery capacity and storage areas.  The Chinese refinery and storage facilities are well known, limited in number and in most cases - poorly defended.  These are fixed targets which can be assigned to cruise missiles so the risk to manned aircraft is minimal.  The US could reduce the overall capacity to produce and stocks on hand to less than 10% within a week of any major hostilities.
 
Moving to coal would be hard to carry out and time consuming.  Coal cracking into useable fuel is not an easy thing to hide and much like refinery space - industrial in scale.  Thus, any attempt to move to synth-fuel can also be destroyed quickly.
 
The only retaliation left to the PRC - in the case of a conventional attack and blockade - is to resort to nuclear strikes.  Not a pleasent scenario in view of the massive firepower the US could bring to the table.
 
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YelliChink       2/1/2008 11:02:19 AM

An oil embargo or blockade would not only cripple the Chinese economy - it is the PLA's achilles heel.  No fuel leaves jets grounded, tanks inmobile and missiles vulnerable.  An embargo combined with hostilities would be devastating.  The main nodes of attack would be on the refinery capacity and storage areas.  The Chinese refinery and storage facilities are well known, limited in number and in most cases - poorly defended.  These are fixed targets which can be assigned to cruise missiles so the risk to manned aircraft is minimal.  The US could reduce the overall capacity to produce and stocks on hand to less than 10% within a week of any major hostilities.

Moving to coal would be hard to carry out and time consuming.  Coal cracking into useable fuel is not an easy thing to hide and much like refinery space - industrial in scale.  Thus, any attempt to move to synth-fuel can also be destroyed quickly.

The only retaliation left to the PRC - in the case of a conventional attack and blockade - is to resort to nuclear strikes.  Not a pleasent scenario in view of the massive firepower the US could bring to the table.

I'd be surprised if commies didn't thought about that. ROC military has been building underground fuel storage for decades, and the ones you can see on google map are, well, targets.
On the other hand. Germans knew that they will have fuel shortage before WW2, so they built a lot of synthetic fuel plants in coal-producing Ruhr area. That didn't save them from allied bombing, but Speer's project of underground fuel production facility had been carried out in less-spetaculor scale. USAF actually has a project to produce aviation fuel in similar way. Kerosene, the primary ingredient of jet fuel, was, after all, first synthesized from coal.

I am not saying that an oil embargo won't cause them pain. It's just not the way to break their will.
 
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Herald12345    Go after fertilizer and WATER.   2/1/2008 11:39:49 AM




An oil embargo or blockade would not only cripple the Chinese economy - it is the PLA's achilles heel.  No fuel leaves jets grounded, tanks inmobile and missiles vulnerable.  An embargo combined with hostilities would be devastating.  The main nodes of attack would be on the refinery capacity and storage areas.  The Chinese refinery and storage facilities are well known, limited in number and in most cases - poorly defended.  These are fixed targets which can be assigned to cruise missiles so the risk to manned aircraft is minimal.  The US could reduce the overall capacity to produce and stocks on hand to less than 10% within a week of any major hostilities.



Moving to coal would be hard to carry out and time consuming.  Coal cracking into useable fuel is not an easy thing to hide and much like refinery space - industrial in scale.  Thus, any attempt to move to synth-fuel can also be destroyed quickly.



The only retaliation left to the PRC - in the case of a conventional attack and blockade - is to resort to nuclear strikes.  Not a pleasent scenario in view of the massive firepower the US could bring to the table.



I'd be surprised if commies didn't thought about that. ROC military has been building underground fuel storage for decades, and the ones you can see on google map are, well, targets.

On the other hand. Germans knew that they will have fuel shortage before WW2, so they built a lot of synthetic fuel plants in coal-producing Ruhr area. That didn't save them from allied bombing, but Speer's project of underground fuel production facility had been carried out in less-spetaculor scale. USAF actually has a project to produce aviation fuel in similar way. Kerosene, the primary ingredient of jet fuel, was, after all, first synthesized from coal.

I am not saying that an oil embargo won't cause them pain. It's just not the way to break their will.


The PRCs import fertilizer like you wouldn't believe. The poor enslaved Chinese people also depend on irrigation agriculture immensely.  They scarce have enough fresh water runoff as it is. Start smashing dams and they will be in desperate trouble.

Herald
 
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FJV    Dunno   2/1/2008 2:06:56 PM
For some reason the unintended side effects of such measures always seem to bother me.
 
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Zhang Fei       2/1/2008 3:29:19 PM
During the Korean War, no oil embargo was imposed on China. Besides, how do you enforce an oil embargo without the cooperation of China's neighbors? Would Russia and Central Asia go along?
 
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displacedjim       2/1/2008 3:54:01 PM

For some reason the unintended side effects of such measures always seem to bother me.



And the intended main effects, too!
 
I certainly hope the "center of gravity" identified and targeted by USAF targeteers will never be the enemy nation's civilian food supply!

 
 
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xylene       2/1/2008 7:03:34 PM
An oil embargo would have a big effect on China. In a blockade / embargo with no shooting, the CCP military could be supplied but it would have a detrimental effect on all other aspects of China ranging from civilian business and cause transport chaos. Overtime even if domestic supplies were tightly rationed, the logistics chain of actually getting usable fuel out to the nodes would begin to deteriorate. China probably has some reserves but I doubt anything near scale that could give more than a month's breathing space.
 
In an agressive action where ships were being siezed, ship owners world wide would simply refuse to go to Chinese ports. As far as pipelines I'm not sure if any from Burma, Afghanistan, Pakistan have actually been completed. Until they are complete and pumping cargo they don't factor in. This leaves only truck transport from nieghbor countries, but sort of defeats purpose since the amount of fuel used per metric ton transported would be horrific.
 
If China could stave off fuel depletion for a month in a non shooting scenario , in a shooting war it would be much less time. Delivery nodes would not be empty but be destroyed. Refineries would be targeted and so would steel plants. There may be some underground facilities for cracking coal to gasoline, but no way would it be on the scale of a refinery capable of churning out hundreds of thousands of bbls of gasoline while being constantly supplied. Once refineries are taken out , it is end of game.
 
Oil is the lifeblood of all major countries. It is America's Achilles Heel and it is also China's. 
 
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Zhang Fei       2/1/2008 7:47:20 PM
I think all the speculation about bombing facilities on Chinese soil is pointless. During the Korean War, US warplanes did not deliberately cross the Yalu river, let alone bomb inside China proper. Look, if the USAF got an unlimited hunting license inside China in the event of hostilities, it could definitely reduce China's military and civilian infrastructure to ashes. But the question is whether this level of escalation would be on the menu. If we are looking at realistic political and military scenarios, I think the answer is no. The reason is simple - there is always the risk of uncontrolled escalation up to and including the use of nukes. And then there's the question of what the Russians will do to help its ally of the moment.
 
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Herald12345    Squeamishness.   2/1/2008 8:29:30 PM
1. I didn't say it would be pretty.
2. The only way realistic to stop the PRC hegemonist train is to derail it conventionally. That means their economic ruin.but their possible PRC physical survival instead of ruling class extermination in a peasant revolt.
3. Oil would work, but it would take time, there is the land based supply route, and there is no guarantee that we wouldn't get a 34th rung reaction when the PRC war machine stalls.
4. The PRCs import their fertilizer by SEA. they have no landbased suppliers who can meet their needs-none at all. Stop the nitrates and their cereal grains production collapses, but that takes time-time where they can consider our surrender terms without recourse to the 34th rung..
5. Putin can be bribed. He's a thug. Give him a bone and he'll chew on it happily. He won't save the PRCs: if the price is right. [Stalin Lesson].
6. Seizing Cosco shipping and PRC overseas holdings in an American naval blitzkrieg is a certainty in any Guam surprise.so the fertilizer and oil will be cut off anyway.
7. The Guam surprise is almost a given now that the PRCs see us fortifying it like crazy.   
8. The last time I looked, Guam was sacred US soil. A PRC bandit attack there is central war.
9. Given 8 that means that all PRC safe bets are off the table.
10. That includes the Chinese dams.

Herald
 
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