Better yet, the whole shaker.  It's in an official USN publication which means it must support either CVs, subs or ever larger and more expensive surface ships.  Any idiot can see that CVs aren't the way to stop an invasion of Taiwan and that subs would be more effective.  The issue is that China only has to declare an exclusion zone and drive the cost of insurance of shipping to Taiwan through the roof.  Then the US offers to convoy ships.  Then the Chinese dump dollars.  Alternatively they let the convoys through and lend us the money to pay for it.  The best statement in the article was the bit about the USN losing its edge in fighting at sea due to the war on terror and the increasing cost of ships.  Read The Cost of Seapower  by Pugh, then explain how the USN is supposed to match the Chinese in 2030 when they have a bigger economy, are a net creditor nation and have a higher growth rate then we do.

Most of it is pablum, but three key points I noted immediately:
1.  The PRC bandits will not hesitate to attack US territory if they think they can. They think Guam ios a sacrifice outpost that they can hit because it is not "defended". To their criominal minds that is an open invitation.
2. The PRC bandits being pirates and murdering thieves look to the naval mine to block access to free navigation in international waters. The First Island Ring is Japan, the Rykukus, the Kuriles in the north, Taiwan, outerlying western Philippine Republic islands Hainan and the Spratleys in the South China Sea at the MINIMUM. The approaches and straits in those areas they will mine if they can.
3. The PRC bandits see the US submarine force and NOT the US carrier force as their chief naval threat.

And I agree with this. The US should invest in  its submarine force if for no other reason to ensure that the PRC bandits know that when they attack the first island chain, their navy and merchant marine dies first, then when they refuse our reasonable terms for their surrender, they follow into the grave of history.

Herald

Herald, do you agree that the JMNSDF could "smoke" the PLAN if it wanted to? Most USN guys I have talked with who have working in Japan feel so.

At sea at least.  By 1914 the Germans were ship for ship better than the RN.  The historical pattern is clear and the cost of navies so great that the stronger economic power will always have the upper hand at sea.  China is a rising power just like pre WW1 Germany.  The Chinese obviously believe they will continue to grow at the same rate and that with the US wanting to police the whole world they will be able to dominate the Pacific at some point in the future.  There are really too many variables to predict what will happen, a lot depends upon whether the PRC can master high tech and what will happen with peak oil and the effect that will have on the US and PRC economies.  As for now, I think it's been obvious that most so-called experts and most message board posters waste their time talking about Chinese anti-CV systems.  Subs have never been able to stop an invasion but then again those subs that tried to stop invasions in the past were arrayed randomly or fought against overwhelming odds.  US subs would be superior and would be cued by satellite and other offboard data.  A half-dozen US SSNs could stop any Chinese invasion of Taiwan which is why the PRC won't risk it unless they get backed into a corner like the Argentine generals in 1982.  It's more likely they would blockade.  It then becomes a question of who will raise the ante in economic warfare and who will hurt whom more.  China gets cut off from seaborne trade and the US has  hundreds of billions in treasury securities dumped.

"It then becomes a question of who will raise the ante in economic warfare and who will hurt whom more.  China gets cut off from seaborne trade and the US has  hundreds of billions in treasury securities dumped."

That is an old and hollow threat.

You should look at the battle-space before you comment.

The main theaters are the South China Sea, Yellow Sea, and the Sea of Japan. Fighting in there for subs is like fighting in the Eastern Mediterranean. Nuclear boats can do it, but it isn't as easy as you think, it doesn't work the way you think, and air-power would be far more important.

The US subs are there to kill Cosco freighters, blockade the PRC bandits, kill the PLAN at sea, cruiose missile PRC dams with their LACMs and generally control sea access. . They aren't there to kill transports or drown PLA troops. Leave that to the RoC cruise missiles.

http://www.anheizen.com/volcstuff/ringfire1.gif">
.
http://cache.eb.com/eb/image?id=3314&rendTypeId=4">

Herald.

The SSNs can be equipped with antiship missiles and they can be relied upon whereas Taiwanese missiles are compromised by being mounted on platforms the PRC can attack.

and rely on off sub airborne sensors to launch long range anti-ship weapons for precision attack. Otherwise its a blkind bearing only launch. The plume of the rocket or cruise missile rising is an rising is an arrow  pointing saying "HERE I AM!" . The subs, otherwise, have to poke an antenna up to receive targeting data. In those waters, that's a bullseye screaming SHOOT ME, I'M A SUB: even for the PLAN.  Leave the battlespace analysis alone. You appear to have problems understanding how subs would work within it. Torpedoes would be the open ocean weapons of choice, but in those waters I prefer mobile submarine laid MINES laid just outside the PRC harbors. KILL FREIGHTERS.

Herald