The Chinese attempt to infiltrate North Korea by means of bribery, close relations, military assistance, and diplomatic pressure has always been an idea I expected China to follow. It makes perfect sense from their position to eventually control North korea and bring it into the fold without a war.

 

South Korea on the other hand has no such program in place. Its only hope is that if North korea collapses, the south will rush in to save the day.

 

 The third option, is if the very paranoid north feels threatened enough by a Chinese takeover (of whom they traditionally have never trusted)   that it would attack or reapproach South Korea just for the takeover by the south.

There is probably no one in China unaffected by their forced abortion policy.  There are very few in China who are members of the Chinese Communist Party. Den  Xiao Ping had a jet idling waiting for his escape as 2300 human beings were murdered by the People's Army in Teinanmen Square.  If China engaged in a shooting war with a first world power, and by that I mean any NATO member near that NATO member's territory the surrender and flight of Chinese uniformed forces over the border would make the U.S. border with Mexico look orderly. 

 

China is a paper dragon tied down by greed and duplicity.  China just hopes to keep cashing foreign checks for its marketplace.  China owns lots of debt and hopes to high heaven NONE of the first world economies fluctuate, much less collapse.

 

China can't absorb North Korea much less anything in Africa.  China can't build its own Silicon Valley.  China can't bribe its way out of the harm it has inflicted on its own populaton.  China can't spy or steal its way to prosperity.  China is going to collapse of its own weight no matter how many miles of rail lines it builds, no matter how may digital devices it builds, no matter how much propaganda it broadcasts.  Lets watch Three Gorges and see.

I can understand the reasons for China wanting to take over North Korea from the current corrupt regime.  With various Chinese run mining interests and a slave-labor population ready to be tapped, the profit potential is justification enough to want to keep it out of the hands of the South Koreans.  However, I doubt if there are any plans to invade South Korea if such a scenario, (such as a total collapse of the north) were to occur.

 

South Korea is not simply the second largest industrial power in Asia, they are also the second or third toughest military, after China and possibly Japan.  South Korea is heavily industrialized; capable of building their own sophisticated military hardware, which was not the case when North Korea and then China invaded in the Korean War 60 years ago.  If China were to attack South Korea, they would have to hit them with everything they've got (Short of nukes.) to beat them.  And even then, there is no guarantee that China would be able to win, considering the other fronts they have to devote military assets to: such as Russia, India and Tibet, not to mention Taiwan.  South Korea is also heavily connected to the West, with some US troops still there, so it is highly unlikely that such a conflict will occur, if it could be at all avoided, due to the fact that nations will be less enthusiastic to trade with China if they were seen as the next Nazi Germany, bent on conquest. 

It is possible that, if North Korea were to collapse, South Korea could simply look the other way and let the Chinese do the heavy lifting as far as bringing the backward North Koreans into the 21st Century.  Once that is accomplished, China could then be driven out of the North any number of ways without having to resort to a full scale military option

 

It is less certain to say that South Korea would intervene, militarily, if China invaded the North in the event of a North Korea meltdown.  Nationalism aside, absorbing North Korea into South Korea would be a difficult prospect, both economically and socially.  North Korea's population is so backward and feral, any attempt to mix North and South could be problematic at best.  An open border between the two as the result of unification would drain resources, severely drop the high standard of living in the South and increase internal strife for years, particularly if Communist true-believers from the North were to migrate South and become a political and terrorist threat to the capitalist regime currently in power there. 

 

As far as military prowess is concerned, the outcome of a conflict between South Korea and China is anybody's guess.  Both opponents are very similar, with high levels of industrialization and, what looks to be on paper at least, a first class military machine.  Beyond that there is little to decipher as neither has been really tested actually using all those toys in combat.  With military leadership on both sides based more on political connections rather than training, it is possible to imagine that both sides would be bad at prosecuting a shooting war; the only real edge possibly being South Korean Nationalism, but even that is debatable as the South has likely accepted North Korea as a sovereign nation almost two generations ago.  The real test could be the relative learning curves of the respective military machines, versus how much is lost in the first few battles, but either way, South Korea is not a pushover and I'm certain the Chinese already knows that.

The Communists prefer that the West stand aside: Hungary 1956 (first military deployment of the AK47), Czechoslovakia 1968 (Dated political joke: Why was there no May Day parade?  Because all the Red Army soldiers with boots were in Czechoslovakia.), South Viet Nam 1975.  The Commies prefer dupes and fellow travelers: Nicaragua, Cuba, Venezuela, the Democratic Party.  The Chinese cannot face a first world power: Japan and South Korea.  If they send troops, expect them to defect like a Soviet pilot to Japan. 

 

Let the Chinese try to absorb a collapsed North Korea.  Don't think it will be like a reunified Germany.  Their inherent racism will claim that Mao demands that they expel Koreans and replace them with Chinese and expect the United Nations to sign on.  I would expect an academic in Berkeley to find a way to justify Chinese policy, after all they have a huge study center at the U.C. Berkeley campus.

 

Besides, will Chinese weapons work?  They can make brass, primers, gunpowder and lead.  Do their stolen hardware and software products work well enough to try against the West?   Maybe so.  Maybe not, but they are still willing to sell them to Iran, Hezbollah, the PLO and Hamas just to see if they work. 

 

The Communist Party of China: trying to figure out how not to end up like Nicolae Ceau&o37;escu.

Looks like the old SEATO is reassembling....

 

DG

 

Future wars will be fought in undeveloped countries by developed countries looking for resources.

 

Yes Japan invaded Korea and China 70 years ago, but both of those victim nations were relatively undeveloped.  Japan wanted resources.  Today South Korea is highly developed, and the cost of trying to take and hold it is too expensive for China even if the US didn't come to their defense.

 

Japan of course has no reason to fear anyone invading it's territory proper - highly developed and NO RESOURCES!

 

Australia has resources a-plenty but powerful friends a-plenty too.  Besides China has zero capability for invading anyone who does not share a land border.  If Taiwan were connected to the mainland it would have been assimilated, but even that short 140 mile stretch of ocean may as well be 1400 or 14,000 miles to date.