Very dangerous times. As the Chinese government's credibility wanes with its own people, the temptation will be to rally them with a "splendid little war" with one of China's neighbors. The Philippines may look like easy pickings. However, such a naval war could easily dislocate the entire region or even escalate into war with the US.

If the PLA loses a publicized conflict over the South China Sea or the Senkaku Islands, the CCP will fall.